The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

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Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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See you around, Rob!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting pearlandaggie:
72. "with fronds like these, who needs anemones!" --Nemo

:)


LMAO...spoken like a true parent!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
later, rob!
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72. "with fronds like these, who needs anemones!" --Nemo

:)

by the way, you're very welcome!
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Quoting RobDaHood:
Doing good...mainly lying low this year since we didn't end up with any serious threats...but I read along and use copious amounts of duct tape to keep from getting in trouble! LOL


Well, we missed you in here...looks like I'll be spending a good deal of time in here the next few weeks so maybe I'll see you...we'll try not to get banned

LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
never discount an old wives tale, they tend to have a kernel of truth in them

Very true. When all the "tales" start pointing the same direction...well, ya gotta wunder!

Okay, lunch break over. Enjoyed the chat!
Later.
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71. you know, it's interesting you bring up acorns. i noticed the other day that my live oak tree that wasn't pounded by Ike has TONS of acorns on it this year...FAR more than i have observed in any other years. i would estimate it has 10x the normal amount of acorns, maybe more. i was trying to figure out why that might be the case. most of the year was dry with the drought breaking only in the last couple of months. i didn't even fertilize the roots this year. very interesting...
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


well, Flood, you've certainly got YEARS and YEARS and YEARS of observation to draw on! LOL


My FRIEND, pearlandaggie...LOL

By the way, the studies and data you sent me are good...very good
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Stratospheric Warming Beginning – if it persists, suggests cold coming end of November and December US and Europe

could be a cold winter this year...the analysis links stratospheric warming events with colder winters in weak/moderate El Nino years.

"Below is a cross section of height/temperature anomalies for the Polar Regions (65-90N). Note each time the warming reached into the mid Troposphere, the AO Index tanked. The negative AO was why October was 3rd coldest in 115 years for the United States."


I've read a couple of studies that give pretty good evidence for that being the case...then there's the "old wives tales"; never discount an old wives tale, they tend to have a kernel of truth in them...more acorns, squirrels with thicker coats, wooly caterpillars...I now, next thing you know I'll be brewing things with eye of newt in them...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting pearlandaggie:


well, Flood, you've certainly got YEARS and YEARS and YEARS of observation to draw on! LOL

oooh...that one stung!
LOL
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Doing good...mainly lying low this year since we didn't end up with any serious threats...but I read along and use copious amounts of duct tape to keep from getting in trouble! LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


Did you grow up there? I never saw one in Missouri until I was in my 30s; not very scientific but certainly an indication that something is going on


well, Flood, you've certainly got YEARS and YEARS and YEARS of observation to draw on! LOL
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Quoting RobDaHood:


Believe me, I hope I'm wrong too!


Hey Flood!


Rob! How you doing? Haven't seen you lately...another old friend heard from!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
62. actually, it wasn't a hurricane movie...it was a space movie with an obligatory shot of a tropical cyclone from space! LOL

i agree that hurricane movies tend to be terrible.
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Quoting TheStud:


Yep. I'm in STL and you'll find armadillo roadkill on the interstates. I'm from Perryville and there's been tons of road kill for years just south on I-55.


Did you grow up there? I never saw one in Missouri until I was in my 30s; not very scientific but certainly an indication that something is going on
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting pearlandaggie:
59. well, damaged oranges help Orca! LOL i, on the other hand, like my oranges unfrozen :)

no offense, but i hope you're wrong...only time will tell.


Believe me, I hope I'm wrong too!


Hey Flood!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


So your suggesting that 1 milli second in time knowing that our Mother Earth has heated and cooled in the past is sufficent evidence that its all man made......OK!


And there is your problem...where in my post anywhere did you see that I put this at the feet of mankind? I'm looking at them and nowhere did I mention Man.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
I try to avoid watching "Hurricane Movies" as they usually end up with me yelling at the TV LOL
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59. well, damaged oranges help Orca! LOL i, on the other hand, like my oranges unfrozen :)

no offense, but i hope you're wrong...only time will tell.

by the way, were they young king mackerel or Spanish mackerel? if you're in Florida, they were probably Spanish mackerel. the kings disappear in late fall and show back up in spring (at least in Texas).
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Anja has lost her eye......


on a side note, i was watching a movie the other night and i noticed something. is it just me or do most movies depicting tropical systems from space seem to use images of clockwise (i.e., southern hemisphere cyclones) storms? it seems like every tropical cyclone depicted in movies rotates clockwise! LOL
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56. pearlandaggie
Not a climatologist by any means, but to me the signs have been pointing to a cooler than normal winter for a while.

We haven't had any hard freezes this far south in a while, but I'm thinking this year might be an issue for Florida agriculture.

We saw dolphins chasing the young mackerel Sunday, but you're probably right about the "big-uns".
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55. yep, it's a sure bet all the giant king mackerel have left for the winter! :( those big kings don't like the cooler water.
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Quoting Floodman:


Okay, if jellyfish don't do it for you, how about armadillos? In my hometown of Fulton MO they are starting to have issues with armadillos; never saw them there before, and records go back to 1816 (my family has been in the Fulton area since the 1820s); I started seeing dead ones as roadkill in the Springfield area about 10 years ago, then Rolla about 5 years ago...the winters have become milder, allowing them to live further and further north. From what I understand they are now in the northern third of the state...



Yep. I'm in STL and you'll find armadillo roadkill on the interstates. I'm from Perryville and there's been tons of road kill for years just south on I-55.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stratospheric Warming Beginning – if it persists, suggests cold coming end of November and December US and Europe

could be a cold winter this year...the analysis links stratospheric warming events with colder winters in weak/moderate El Nino years.

"Below is a cross section of height/temperature anomalies for the Polar Regions (65-90N). Note each time the warming reached into the mid Troposphere, the AO Index tanked. The negative AO was why October was 3rd coldest in 115 years for the United States."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Glad to hear that Doc's thinking on the season backs up my gut feeling.

Spent a little time at the gulf last weekend. The water temp is really coming down.

Very nice to let your guard down in Florida...even if only for a while.
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Quoting Floodman:


So I suppose you support the theory that climate is cooling? LOL


So your suggesting that 1 milli second in time knowing that our Mother Earth has heated and cooled in the past is sufficent evidence that its all man made......OK!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting TampaSpin:
So is it Climate Change or Global Warming.....LMAO


So I suppose you support the theory that climate is cooling? LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
So is it Climate Change or Global Warming?...LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting IKE:
And SQUAWK....it's over...fat lady is singing.

9-3-2 looks like the seasons total. I predicted 10-4-2.


YIPPIE SKIPPY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
And SQUAWK....it's over...fat lady is singing.

9-3-2 looks like the seasons total. I predicted 10-4-2.


You did better than I did: 12-6-2
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
duly noted...
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the purple hippo bette wait until November 30th.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
if it's over, is it safe for my purple hippo?
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I'm not trying to start anything, but denying climate change out of hand is as bad claiming it's happening out of hand
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
44. IKE
And SQUAWK....it's over...fat lady is singing.

9-3-2 looks like the seasons total. I predicted 10-4-2.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
43. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:
Where is Ike?? It looks like time to celebrate!! I think the fat lady is warming up



Here I am. Done a lot of lurking lately....

"""Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:22 AM CST on November 16, 2009
Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over."""......


DOWNCASTER! Just teasin....thanks and have a nice day doc!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
From the Doc's blog today.

Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic.

Well, it coulda happened!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
41. JRRP
PR Radar
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5979
3.13 inches of rain,at my house in eastern Mass in less than 24 hrs. Luckily the moisture didn't hang around like it did in the mid-atlantic.What a mess down there.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
Quoting TampaSpin:
I love Jellyfish.......so they are moving North. Tell me and show me proof it has never happened again.....Come on now! Don't start this up AwakeInMaryland!


Okay, if jellyfish don't do it for you, how about armadillos? In my hometown of Fulton MO they are starting to have issues with armadillos; never saw them there before, and records go back to 1816 (my family has been in the Fulton area since the 1820s); I started seeing dead ones as roadkill in the Springfield area about 10 years ago, then Rolla about 5 years ago...the winters have become milder, allowing them to live further and further north. From what I understand they are now in the northern third of the state...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting NEwxguy:


sure you weren't driving on the train tracks.
You know the old joke,the light at the end of the tunnel may be an oncoming train?


LOL...nope. running north on Lindberg Blvd in the inside lane
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
I love Jellyfish.......so they are moving North. Are JellyFish bad? Tell me and show me proof it has never happened again.....Come on now! Don't start this up AwakeInMaryland!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Well, since hurricane season is almost over...and blog slowed down...we still have...
TA DA -- CLIMATE CHANGE/GLOBAL WARMING!

So guys, don't say I didn't give the blog something to -- ahem -- "discuss" this morning.
And with that, I'm outta' here for the moment, before Dr. No does arrive (hearing that collective sigh of relief)!

Jellyfish swarm northward in warming world
AP
* Jellyfish swarm northward Slideshow:Jellyfish swarm northward

By MICHAEL CASEY, AP Environmental Writer Michael Casey, Ap Environmental Writer %u2013 Mon Nov 16, 8:37 am ET

KOKONOGI, Japan %u2013 A blood-orange blob the size of a small refrigerator emerged from the dark waters, its venomous tentacles trapped in a fishing net. Within minutes, hundreds more were being hauled up, a pulsating mass crowding out the catch of mackerel and sea bass.

The fishermen leaned into the nets, grunting and grumbling as they tossed the translucent jellyfish back into the bay, giants weighing up to 200 kilograms (450 pounds), marine invaders that are putting the men's livelihoods at risk.

The venom of the Nomura, the world's largest jellyfish, a creature up to 2 meters (6 feet) in diameter, can ruin a whole day's catch by tainting or killing fish stung when ensnared with them in the maze of nets here in northwest Japan's Wakasa Bay.

"Some fishermen have just stopped fishing," said Taiichiro Hamano, 67. "When you pull in the nets and see jellyfish, you get depressed."

This year's jellyfish swarm is one of the worst he has seen, Hamano said. Once considered a rarity occurring every 40 years, they are now an almost annual occurrence along several thousand kilometers (miles) of Japanese coast, and far beyond Japan.

Scientists believe climate change %u2014 the warming of oceans %u2014 has allowed some of the almost 2,000 jellyfish species to expand their ranges, appear earlier in the year and increase overall numbers, much as warming has helped ticks, bark beetles and other pests to spread to new latitudes.

The gelatinous seaborne creatures are blamed for decimating fishing industries in the Bering and Black seas, forcing the shutdown of seaside power and desalination plants in Japan, the Middle East and Africa, and terrorizing beachgoers worldwide, the U.S. National Science Foundation says.

A 2008 foundation study cited research estimating that people are stung 500,000 times every year %u2014 sometimes multiple times %u2014 in Chesapeake Bay on the U.S. East Coast, and 20 to 40 die each year in the Philippines from jellyfish stings.

In 2007, a salmon farm in Northern Ireland lost its more than 100,000 fish to an attack by the mauve stinger, a jellyfish normally known for stinging bathers in warm Mediterranean waters. Scientists cite its migration to colder Irish seas as evidence of global warming.

Increasingly polluted waters %u2014 off China, for example %u2014 boost growth of the microscopic plankton that "jellies" feed upon, while overfishing has eliminated many of the jellyfish's predators and cut down on competitors for plankton feed.

"These increases in jellyfish should be a warning sign that our oceans are stressed and unhealthy," said Lucas Brotz, a University of British Columbia researcher.

Here on the rocky Echizen coast, amid floodlights and the roar of generators, fishermen at Kokonogi's bustling port made quick work of the day's catch %u2014 packaging glistening fish and squid in Styrofoam boxes for shipment to market.

In rain jackets and hip waders, they crowded around a visitor to tell how the jellyfish have upended a way of life in which men worked fishing trawlers on the high seas in their younger days and later eased toward retirement by joining one of the cooperatives operating nets set in the bay.

It was a good living, they said, until the jellyfish began inundating the bay in 2002, sometimes numbering 500 million, reducing fish catches by 30 percent and slashing prices by half over concerns about quality.

Two nets in Echizen burst last month during a typhoon because of the sheer weight of the jellyfish, and off the east coast jelly-filled nets capsized a 10-ton trawler as its crew tried to pull them up. The three fishermen were rescued.

"We have been getting rid of jellyfish. But no matter how hard we try, the jellyfish keep coming and coming," said Fumio Oma, whose crew is out of work after their net broke under the weight of thousands of jellyfish. "We need the government's help to get rid of the jellyfish."

The invasions cost the industry up to 30 billion yen ($332 million) a year, and tens of thousands of fishermen have sought government compensation, said scientist Shin-ichi Uye, Japan's leading expert on the problem.

Hearing fishermen's pleas, Uye, who had been studying zooplankton, became obsessed with the little-studied Nomura's jellyfish, scientifically known as Nemopilema nomurai, which at its biggest looks like a giant mushroom trailing dozens of noodle-like tentacles.

"No one knew their life cycle, where they came from, where they reproduced," said Uye, 59. "This jellyfish was like an alien."

He artificially bred Nomura's jellyfish in his Hiroshima University lab, learning about their life cycle, growth rates and feeding habits. He traveled by ferry between China to Japan this year to confirm they were riding currents to Japanese waters.

He concluded China's coastal waters offered a perfect breeding ground: Agricultural and sewage runoff are spurring plankton growth, and fish catches are declining. The waters of the Yellow Sea, meanwhile, have warmed as much as 1.7 degrees C (3 degrees F) over the past quarter-century.

"The jellyfish are becoming more and more dominant," said Uye, as he sliced off samples of dead jellyfish on the deck of an Echizen fishing boat. "Their growth rates are quite amazing."

The slight, bespectacled scientist is unafraid of controversy, having lobbied his government tirelessly to help the fishermen, and angered Chinese colleagues by arguing their government must help solve the problem, comparing it to the effects of acid rain that reaches Japan from China.

"The Chinese people say they will think about this after they get rich, but it might be too late by then," he said.

A U.S. marine scientist, Jennifer Purcell of Western Washington University, has found a correlation between warming and jellyfish on a much larger scale, in at least 11 locations, including the Mediterranean and North seas, and Chesapeake and Narragansett bays.

"It's hard to deny that there is an effect from warming," Purcell said. "There keeps coming up again and again examples of jellyfish populations being high when it's warmer." Some tropical species, on the other hand, appear to decline when water temperatures rise too high.

Even if populations explode, their numbers may be limited in the long term by other factors, including food and currents. In a paper last year, researchers concluded jellyfish numbers in the Bering Sea %u2014 which by 2000 were 40 times higher than in 1982 %u2014 declined even as temperatures have hit record highs.

"They were still well ahead of their historic averages for that region," said co-author Lorenzo Ciannelli of Oregon State University. "But clearly jellyfish populations are not merely a function of water temperature."

Addressing the surge in jellyfish blooms in most places will require long-term fixes, such as introducing fishing quotas and pollution controls, as well as capping greenhouse gas emissions to control global warming, experts said.

In the short term, governments are left with few options other than warning bathers or bailing out cash-strapped fishermen. In Japan, the government is helping finance the purchase of newly designed nets, a layered system that snares jellyfish with one kind of net, allowing fish through to be caught in another.

Some entrepreneurs, meanwhile, are trying to cash in. One Japanese company is selling giant jellyfish ice cream, and another plans a pickled plum dip with chunks of giant jellyfish. But, though a popular delicacy, jellyfish isn't likely to replace sushi or other fish dishes on Asian menus anytime soon, in view of its time-consuming processing, heavy sodium overload and unappealing image.
___
Associated Press writer Shino Yuasa contributed to this report from Tokyo.


Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting NEwxguy:


sure you weren't driving on the train tracks.
You know the old joke,the light at the end of the tunnel may be an oncoming train?


It must be raining in New England today with tremendous clouds overhead. It has to be raining Colts and Colts!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting Floodman:


I've always found that the Leonids are spectacular, even though the "pundits" say that this one or that one won't be all the great...the best meteor I've ever seen was a Leonid that I saw the day after peak driving past Lambert Airport in St Louis...it was amazing: it traversed the entire sky from horizon to horizon; I thought it was a car coming at me in my lane the wrong way at first, it was so bright...


sure you weren't driving on the train tracks.
You know the old joke,the light at the end of the tunnel may be an oncoming train?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
hey orca i was wundering how you like your pineapple sliced or diced cause if you are gonna get it it may as well be the way you like it

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
Quoting Floodman:


I've always found that the Leonids are spectacular, even though the "pundits" say that this one or that one won't be all the great...the best meteor I've ever seen was a Leonid that I saw the day after peak driving past Lambert Airport in St Louis...it was amazing: it traversed the entire sky from horizon to horizon; I thought it was a car coming at me in my lane the wrong way at first, it was so bright...


AIRPORT! That's a great idea, Flood. My hubby works near Dulles, and has to get up early anyway. Hmm, think I might have to delegate this task.

BC DUCKS
(I meant this as a gag, but these pics are good! Hope link works.)
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

you guys are gonna be in trouble with dr.NO! LOL :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats true but hey when ya go golfing in this weather instead of sayin fore you can always say quack


LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Orcasystems:

At least I don't have to shovel it :)
And.. we don't even know what a water shortage is :)
thats true but hey when ya go golfing in this weather instead of sayin fore you can always say quack
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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