The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

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Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
mi español es tan oxidado como mi coche.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
176. the same can be said for Houstonians and snow! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
LOL,it is always a source of amazement in this blog the subjects we get talking about.
Armadillos,something us new englanders know nothing about
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15724
Quoting pearlandaggie:
es la verdad. el hipop�tamo de color p�rpura no est� aqu�.

hehehe :)


lo siento, yo no se donde ella estan.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8326

Puedo usar un traductor Ingls Espaol en el Internet, tambin.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
es la verdad. el hipoptamo de color prpura no est aqu.

hehehe :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
el hipopótamo púrpura no estan aqui! :)


es la verdad?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8326
el hipop%uFFFDtamo p%uFFFDrpura no esta aqui! :)

argh!...nevermind...at least i tried :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Anja starting to form an eye again?
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Afternoon, all!

¡Aquí estoy!

¿Dónde está el hipopótamo púrpura?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
166. oh, you're bad...i can't imagine a 'dillo catching one of these! LOL

remember, some of them carry leprosy! LMAO
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
LMAO @ 165. as long as the 'dillo doesn't jump over it, i suppose!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
161. i'd bet they don't like 5.56x45s either! LOL


Yeah, I'd have to think that they'd go all to pieces
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162. Those are considered the primary methods of control.
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Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
161. i'd bet they don't like 5.56x45s either! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
159

Yeah, they apparently don't like swmps or gators much...LOL
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Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
We don't consider them native in Florida.

From http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/UW082 "The Nine-banded Armadillo" a UF/IFAS Extension publication.

Armadillos are prehistoric-looking animals that belong to a family of mammals found primarily in Central and South America. The earliest fossil ancestor of our North American armadillo occurred about 60 million years ago; it was as large as a rhinoceros. Our present-day nine-banded or long-nosed armadillo, Dasypus novemcinctus, is much smaller; adults normally weigh from 8-17 pounds (3.5-8 kilograms) (Figure 1). This species occurs in Texas and east, throughout the South. It occasionally is found in Missouri and South Carolina. However, cold weather limits the northern boundary of the armadillo's range.Armadillos were not always present in Florida. During the past century, they expanded their range from Texas into the Florida panhandle. From 1920 to about 1970, there were several introductions of armadillos into the Atlantic coast region of Florida. Then the panhandle and peninsular populations expanded until they merged. Armadillos are now found in uplands throughout Florida, except in the Keys and parts of the Everglades and Big Cypress swamp.
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Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
157. beell
Yeah, we don't miss many meals, do we?
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LMAO @ 155. i especially like the "well-grubbed" reference! hahaha :)

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
155. beell
Quoting AresPathfinder:
Nature is wildly complex...hence we all yak about it here...the armadillo's range is increasing to limited predator pressure. This is a known fact. Same as with coyotes moving east. The squirrels coats are most likely linked to diurnal cycles like most fur bearing mammals. I have notices a large amount of masting oaks in the N. Central Florida area. Guess I should look to pressure was the driveway in the spring. Predicting the weather is fun but please don't over analyze things.


A lack of predation would seem to be the biggest factor in range expansion of the armadillo. May have been aided by the use of "The Subdivision". Hopping from one well-watered (easy digging) and well-grubbed oasis to the next. Establishing a healthy population to support expansion along the way.

Their funny lttle habit of jumping straight up when startled can really make a mess of the front end/undercarriage of a small car cruising down the highway at 80mph.

At least for now, do your part to halt this out-of-control armadillo population. DO NOT swerve or brake your vehicle to avoid them. Run 'em down! The biosphere is counting on you.
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150. possibly....however, i'm no expert!

There Is Nothing New About The El Nino Modoki
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963


NGPS



GFS
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Quoting AresPathfinder:
Only place I've encountered that one is in the Florida Natural History Museum. Seems most specimens came from around G'ville area.


Yeah, they died out about 11,000 years ago...I think that timeline is right
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Quoting pearlandaggie:

That looks like the start of an El Nino Modoki.
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Quoting Bonedog:
hello? this thing on?


sorry I'll shut up now


been talking to myself LOL


No you haven't; Ive been listening intently...but I'm also trying to finish up some loose ends here at the office so I can be absent for a while...taking a little stay-cation
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Quoting Grothar:


There are approximately 10 extant genera and around 20 extant species of armadillo, some of which are distinguished by the number of bands on their armor. Their average length is about 75 centimeters (30 in), including tail; the Giant Armadillo grows up to 1.5 m (5 ft) and weighs 59 kg (130 lbs), while the Pink Fairy Armadillos are diminutive species with an overall length of 12–15 cm (4–5 in). All species are native to the Americas, where they inhabit a variety of environments.

Straight from WIKI:

In the United States, the sole resident armadillo is the Nine-banded Armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), which is most common in the central southernmost states, particularly Texas. Their range is as far east as South Carolina and Florida and as far north as Nebraska; they have been consistently expanding their range over the last century due to a lack of natural predators and have been found as far north as Illinois, Indiana and southern Ontario.



And I will repeat: I hunted central Missouri in the 60s and 70s and the armadillo was not to found anywhere in that part of the state. The expansion over the last century has been lateral; from Texas into Louisiana firther into the southeast and New Mxico. The nrothward expansion, as noted in the link trhat I posted has been very recent; the last two decades or so.
Is there nayone here from northern Georgia? Seen any armadillos lately? If so, when did you start seeing them?
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hello? this thing on?


sorry I'll shut up now


been talking to myself LOL
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Only place I've encountered that one is in the Florida Natural History Museum. Seems most specimens came from around G'ville area.
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love watching the replays from all the diffrent camera angles =)
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gees a 5 foot dillo!!! man hate to hit that thing with my truck
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142. i hope i never run into one of the 5 foot armadillos covered in ARMOR! i don't think i have any armor-piercing rounds in my stash! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting Floodman:


Waynesville, south of Rolla, even with Springfield. Check it out: armadillos are not condiered indigienous to Missouri, at least not 20 years ago


There are approximately 10 extant genera and around 20 extant species of armadillo, some of which are distinguished by the number of bands on their armor. Their average length is about 75 centimeters (30 in), including tail; the Giant Armadillo grows up to 1.5 m (5 ft) and weighs 59 kg (130 lbs), while the Pink Fairy Armadillos are diminutive species with an overall length of 12–15 cm (4–5 in). All species are native to the Americas, where they inhabit a variety of environments.

Straight from WIKI:

In the United States, the sole resident armadillo is the Nine-banded Armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), which is most common in the central southernmost states, particularly Texas. Their range is as far east as South Carolina and Florida and as far north as Nebraska; they have been consistently expanding their range over the last century due to a lack of natural predators and have been found as far north as Illinois, Indiana and southern Ontario.

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shuttle contrail

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Atlantis is now in preliminary orbit


beautiful shots from the external tank cam
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external tank seperation
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main engine cutoff
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Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
atlantis captain has to learn to pronunciate better LOL

saying ready for the ditch sounded alot like the other word LOL

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Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Atlantis just past its PONR

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1/2 ton a second fuel consumption from 3 main engines


and we complain about MPGs LOL
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srb seperation

30miles high 90 miles downrange
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125. cool...thanks!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
LIFTOFF
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handoff to atlantis of control
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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