Record storm surges hit Mid-Atlantic coast
Record storm surges have caused major flooding along the North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware coasts over the past 24 hours, thanks to the powerful winds of a slow-moving Nor'easter energized by the remains of Hurricane Ida. Norfolk, Virginia, suffered its highest storm surge on record last night, when a surge of 5.96 feet hit the Sewells Point tide station. The previous record was 5.62' during Hurricane Isabel of 2003, with the Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane of 1933 close behind at 5.61'. Last night's peak surge did not hit at high tide, and the storm tide--the combination of surge plus the tide--peaked at 7.74' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW), slightly below the 7.89' storm tide of Hurricane Isabel.
Figure 1. Rain gauge-measured precipitation from Ida-extratropical for the 24 hours ending at 7 am EST this morning. The storm dumped copious amounts of rain over a wide swath of coast. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.
The highest storm surges at Sewell's Point tide gauge in Norfolk, Virginia since 1927:
5.96' Nov 2009 Ida-extratropical
5.62' Sep 2003 Hurricane Isabel
5.61' Aug 1933 Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane
4.73' Sep 1933 Hurricane 13, Cat 1)
4.66' Mar 1962 Ash Wednesday Nor'easter
4.05' Sep 1936 (Hurricane 13, Cat 2)
Top storm tides in Norfolk history:
1933 hurricane (Aug 23rd 1933)..............8.9 feet MLLW
April 11th 1956 Nor'easter..................8.0 feet MLLW
Hurricane Isabel (Sep 18th 2003)............7.9 feet MLLW
Ida-extratropical (Nov 12th 2009)...........7.8 feet MLLW
Ash Wednesday storm (Mar 7th 1962)..........7.8 feet MLLW
Serious coastal flooding is occurring from northern North Carolina to the Delaware/New Jersey border, with record high storm surges recorded at many locations. The storm surge at Lewes Point, Delaware at 9:48 pm EST last night reached 4.63 feet, beating the record high of 4.17' set during the January 4, 1992 Nor'easter. Tide records go back to 1919 at Lewes Point. The highest surge at any of the NOAA-maintained tide gauges from Ida-extratropical was 6.74' at 9:24 pm EST at Money Point, Virginia, located on an inlet about five miles south of downtown Norfolk.
Ida-extratropical also brought hurricane-force wind gusts to the Virginia coast yesterday, with a gust of 75 mph recorded at the Oceana NAS. The Norfolk airport recorded sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 70 mph, at the height of the Nor'easter last night. Heavy rains of 6 - 11 inches since Tuesday have created flooding on most of the the rivers along the entire North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland coasts. Ida-extratropical is slowly weakening and pulling away to the northeast, and the rains have ended along most of the coast, though. Virginia has now seen its highest storm surges, but this afternoon's high tide cycle is likely to bring another round of record or near-record storm tides to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and extreme southern New Jersey. This afternoon's high tide is forecast to bring a storm tide of 7.6' to Atlantic City, NJ, which would be the 10th highest tide there since 1911, but well short of the record 8.98' storm tide during the December, 1992 Nor'easter. By Saturday, Ida-extratropical will be on its way out to sea, and the storm surges and rains will finally abate.
Figure 2. Predicted storm tide (height above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide measured in a full 19-year natural tidal cycle, black line) for Lewes, Delaware (at the mouth of Delaware Bay), as predicted by the GFS model. A storm tide of 8.0 feet is forecast this afternoon during the high tide. For a full description of this plot, see the NOAA Extratropical Surge web site.
Figure 3. Tide gauge trace from the Sewell's Point gauge in Norfolk, VA, shows a storm surge of nearly 6 feet (green line) hit at 8:30 pm EST, with a maximum storm tide of 7.8 feet above MLLW occurring at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Storm surges and sea level rise
The storm surge flooding in the Norfolk area was exacerbated by the fact that sea level has risen and the land has subsided significantly over the past century. Over the past 60 years, absolute sea level along the coast of Virginia has risen by about 2.6 mm/year. However, the relative sea level has risen by 4.44 mm/year since 1927 (Figure 4), meaning that the land has sunk by about 1.84 mm/year. The net result is that the ocean is now about 1.16 feet higher at Norfolk than it was in 1927. The Norfolk tide gauge shows the highest rate of relative sea level rise of any gauge on the U.S. East Coast (though relative sea level rise is much higher along the Gulf Coast, with rises near 3 feet/century at New Orleans). Thus, today's 5+ foot storm surge brought water more than a foot higher in Norfolk than the 5+ foot storm surge of the 1933 hurricane. Storm surge damages will steadily increase along the entire coast this century as sea level rise accelerates and coastal development continues. It is urgent that government take action in coming years to limit development in vulnerable coastal regions. The ocean is going flood our sand castles that we are building in harm's way, at an ever increasing rate.
Figure 4. Monthly mean sea level at the Sewells Point, VA tide gauge in Norfolk, without the regular seasonal fluctuations due to coastal ocean temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents. The long-term linear trend is also shown, including its 95% confidence interval. Relative sea level has increased by 1.16 feet since 1927, the highest rate of rise on the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Portlight responding to the flooding in Virginia
Portlight.org is deploying up to 3 self-sufficient mobile kitchens capable of feeding over 2000 people a day to the Virginia coast. They will be providing meals for first responders, volunteers, and, of course, affected residents. Donations are welcome--visit the portlight blog to learn more and make a PayPal donation. Thanks!
Take action: sign the QuikSCAT letter
The QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999, provides crucial measurements of surface wind speed and direction over Earth's oceans twice per day. Forecasters world-wide have come to rely on data from QuikSCAT to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. QuikSCAT's antenna is expected to fail within the next six months, according to engineers at NASA/JPL, and QuikSCAT data has already been removed from our global weather forecast models, due to concerns about data reliability.
There exists a narrow window of opportunity in the next few days to get the wheels in motion to launch a QuikSCAT replacement instrument on a Japanese satellite in 2015. The funding for this must start within the next budget cycle, and there is currently no funding in place for a replacement QuikSCAT. If we miss this this opportunity, it may be ten years or more before a QuikSCAT replacement can be launched. To this end, I urge all of you to sign the QuikSCAT funding letter being presented to John Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
The letter is at: http://coaps.fsu.edu/scatterometry/statement/.
If you agree with the letter, please sign it (via the web site) as soon as possible: there is a very small window of opportunity to influence the next budget cycle, with this window closing within a few days.
Note that to validate your signature you must type the validation code in the bottom box. This code is the word that appears after 'code =', then click on the sign button.
For more information on QuikSCAT, see my post, The case for a new QuikSCAT satellite.
Figure 5. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.
Expect a new blog until Monday, when I'll discuss the outlook for the remainder of hurricane season. It is finally over?
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 — Blog Index
I said last night to watch the Caribbean in 5-7 days because of that big high...By next Saturday we will have something to be watching again.
Link
System / Système SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE --
Name / Nom ANJA --
Position / Position NEAR 12° 9 S - 70° 5 E 15/11/2009 0000 UTC --
Estimated minimum central Pressure / Pression minimale estimée au centre 978 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre / Vent moyen maxi (10 mn) près du centre 55 KT (100 KM/H) --
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi 75 KT (140 KM/H) --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) / Nombre CI (Classification de Dvorak) CI 4.0 --
Movement over the past 06 hours / Déplacement au cours des dernières 06 heures ALMOST STATIONNARY / QUASI-STATIONNAIRE --
Other informations / Autres informations
--
oh it's released 55kts 978 hPa
I never knew this! I thought the waters off Madagascar would weaken them. They are not always that warm.
How could I have forgotten it was you? I was probably concentrating on all those old Christmas movies, you know the ones with all the heavy snow! Do you still think it is an area to watch? If that high stays in place it could keep them down.
Wow, season must be over, responding to a comment from like 3 days ago.
My response - congratuf***inglations you were right. However, I doubt Ida even had much to do with this noreaster. Ida lost all its energy over the gulf and landfalled as a naked swirl. So I don't know why everyone's calling this "Ida Noreaster"?
haha. A day is not complete without a CMC doomcast. Ex-Ida turns into a Cat 5 hurricane into Miami metro, then intensifying to cat 6 and hitting New Orleans. That model is a joke.
Just trying to lighten the mood.
OMG are you serious, geez, if that hit someone on the head it would kill. That's just a big clump of stones. That should be called "killer hail"
NEBRASKA SUPERCELL OF 22 JUNE 2003
From beell's post:
In particular, a supercell thunderstorm moved northeastward across the community of Aurora, Nebraska, producing extremely large hail and multiple short-lived tornadoes. A record setting hailstone was ultimately discovered in Aurora, measuring 7.0 inches (17.78 cm) in diameter with an 18.75 inch (47.63 cm) circumference. This hailstone broke the previous hail size (diameter and circumference) record of the Coffeyville, Kansas hailstone of 3 September 1970.
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
Tropical Cyclones: Physics, Energetics and Mechanics, Posted by: Weather456, 11:24 AM GMT on October 25, 2009
Um yeah i do know that, I ment it as hail STONES not stones as in rocks.
Parts of QLD had golf ball- baseball size this week in some server storms
Kinda makes you wonder, for what ever reason, and there could have been many, these guys approached this storm from the wrong direction-as in "core punch".
Southern Qld counts cost of hail storms
The clean-up continues in southern Queensland after wild hail storms on the Darling Downs and Granite Belt yesterday.
Fruit and vegetable growers are facing big losses after small to medium-sized hail pelted their crops near Stanthorpe around 3:30pm yesterday.
Local resident Simon Butler says the hail storm was terrifying.
"Ballandean, Glen Aplin and Wallangarra all got big hail storms," Mr Butler said.
"It just came out of nowhere and really just hit. It was pretty bad. It dented the roof and shed and it did get a few dents in my car."
The owner of Ballandean Estate Wines, Angelo Puglisi, says about 25 per cent of his grape crop has been ruined, but says it is minor compared to the crop damage on other farms.
"We have got a bit of a hail damage," Mr Puglisi said. "There was quite a layer of hail on the ground and there is probably 25 per cent damage.
"Some of the stone fruit farmers copped it pretty badly.
"Those who weren't covered with hail nets copped it, and that's probably hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of stone fruit."
On the Darling Downs, the storms wreaked havoc at Dalby and Chinchilla.
Police say there was no hail, but winds gusts of more than 110 kilometres an hour brought down trees and powerlines and several homes had their roofs blown off.
- ABC
Hail storm batters Darling Downs
Storm activity has eased across South East Queensland after lashing parts of the Darling Downs on Thursday evening.
The front, which produced heavy rainfall and large hail, moved in a line through Kingaroy, Boonah, Caboolture, Brisbane, Ipswich and the Gold Coast.
More than 30,000 homes lost power on Thursday but electricity providers say all but 5,000 have had their electricity restored.
Most of the homes without power are in the Ipswich region and the Lockyer Valley.
Weather Bureau senior forecaster Brian Rollstone says the township of Allora was battered by hail on Thursday afternoon.
"The intensity is weakening now and it is starting to drift toward the east and by the time this all gets to Brisbane it will be even weaker," he said.
"I think there's thundery rain on the coast there, much weaker again, so all the storms started on the ranges on the Darling Downs and it is only just getting onto the coast strip."
Local police Sergeant Bruce Willett says there have been no reports of damage.
"We ended up with a wave of hail across us and if left a layer of white across the ground, probably large marble size," he said.
"And then we had another wave come over but it was only pea-sized, so I spoke to the Clifton police officer before and he had an unconfirmed report from a fellow over at Killarney that they may have had some cricket ball-sized stuff this afternoon."
Earlier the Bureau was warning of the chance of flash flooding.
- ABC
Core punching is not a recommended procedure for storm spotting.
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-145
A COMPREHENSIVE GLOSSARY OF
WEATHER TERMS FOR STORM SPOTTERS
Guess it's ok if you are a chaser!
Jesse
Just finished watching a movie and SVU, if you're still here...what's up?
Any guesses on how many flood prone areas and beach front homes there would be if it really hurt?
Jesse
by Kristina Rohall
Posted on November 14, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Updated today at 10:57 PM
Governor Tim Kaine met the people behind the devastation left by the November Nor'easter Saturday.
He toured some of the hardest hit areas in Hampton Roads, including three neighborhoods in Hampton and several sections of Ocean View in Norfolk.
"It's heartbreaking when you see people who have suffered losses like these," said Kaine. "Everybody's trying to help each other out, and neighbors are helping each other out which is an inspiring thing to see."
Hampton resident Angela Leary suffered major losses in her home, but she is more worried about her friend.
"One neighbor, a very fine man, he's refused his dialysis and he won't leave his house," Leary explained. "He said 'I just want to die here.' He can't take it."
In Norfolk, Kaine met with several residents, including Victor Horsford. Horsford's first floor Ocean View apartment was completely flooded during the Nor'easter.
"It was like two feet of water in there so everything was floating," Horsford explained. "The refrigerator was toppled over and the kitchen is a disaster area."
Horsford doesn't have flood insurance.
"It's pretty bad because we pretty much lost everything," said Horsford. "I guess we'll be starting anew."
The Governor and a handful of state and local officials pledged to help by asking for aid from FEMA. They're in the process of gathering damage estimates and expect to release the total amount of damages Monday or Tuesday.
I'm SO confused. Maine is under a floodwatch, so, where IS the she-monster?
HELP.
Gorgeous here in ECFL today. Took a long motorcycle ride and didn't have a single bad moment. Little chill in the air tonight, but no sign of IDA. Will go to the beach tomorrow to take pictures and post. Other than that...I can't tell ya.
(WeatherStoopid = ME)
Xcool, what/where's that pic?
Well, Chicklit, I am SOOO glad you had such a nice day (and even healthy). So maybe we really might see some sun here tomorrow, finally.
xcool, don't mind me...I thought one of your posts mysteriously disappeared; it didn't. Just too much webbernetting on my part.
"Nor Ida" is hiding in the bottom picture on the right. What excitement she has planned for the next several days should be very interesting!
LOL. Thank G-d I'm not the only one who gets posts outta place sometimes!
Short answer, yes. If you have a minute, I'm typing a bit more explanation for you.
Viewing: 601 - 651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 — Blog Index