Ida pulls its punch; El Salvador floods kill 130

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 10, 2009

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A weakening Tropical Storm Ida limped ashore near Dauphin Island, Alabama at 5:40 am CST this morning, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Winds at coastal locations during Ida's landfall were mostly below tropical storm force. One exception was Dauphin Island, where winds peaked at 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph, near midnight. Radar-estimated rainfall from Ida showed many regions received 3 - 5 inches of rain (Figure 1), which has caused some minor river and street flooding. The main damage from Ida seems to have been beach erosion, as a 3 - 6 foot storm surge topped by battering waves affected a long stretch of coast, from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Ida drove a 5.5 foot storm surge to Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans). Ida did not spawn any tornadoes, and the Storm Prediction Center Discussion for today maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and the prospects for severe weather today are low.

Ida's remnants and Invest 98L
Ida is expected to transition to a strong extratropical storm later today, then move off the U.S. Southeast coast by Thursday. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast from Georgia to North Carolina beginning Thursday, as the counter-clockwise flow of air around Ida's extratropical version brings winds of 25 - 35 mph to the coast.

Joining the fun on Thursday may be another extratropical storm (Invest 98L), currently spinning over the Atlantic a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. This disturbance is under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and will not be able to develop today. However, wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday through Thursday, and the storm may begin to acquire some subtropical traits as it moves northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast. There won't be enough time for 98L to develop into a subtropical storm, since by Thursday night it will be interacting with the remains of Ida, which will bring prohibitively high wind shear over 98L.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation for Ida, from the Mobile, Alabama radar.


Figure 2. Observed vs. predicted water levels at Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans). The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it peaked at 5.5 feet above normal between 8 - 10 pm EST last night, and is now falling. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

El Salvador floods kill at least 130
Heavy rains that began on Thursday due to tropical disturbance 96E have killed at least 130 people in El Salvador, with 60 people still missing. The flooding hit the capital of San Salvador and rural areas to the east. The heavy rains were due to tropical disturbance 96E, which formed off the coast of El Salvador on Wednesday, November 4. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the disturbance pulled large quantities of moist, Pacific air over the coastal mountains in El Salvador, dumping steady rains of up two inches over central El Salvador, Thursday through Friday. On Saturday evening, November 7, an extremely intense thunderstorm complex developed over central El Salvador, dumping up to 17.4" (442 mm) of rain on the slopes of the Chichontepec volcano just east of the capital of San Salvador. Huge mudslides rumbled down the mountain, burying the the town of Verapaz, some 30 miles (48 km) east of San Salvador.


Figure 3. Collapsed bridge at Santa Cruz La Libertad, El Salvador. Image credit: Wunderphotographer DiegoSagrera

This weekend's flooding disaster was the second deadliest weather disaster in El Salvador history. The deadliest was from Category 5 Hurricane Mitch, which killed 240 people in 1998. Ranking third is Category 1 Hurricane Stan of 2005, which brought heavy rains that killed at least 72 people. El Salvador is very vulnerable to flash flooding, since the nation is the second most deforested country in the Americas, next to Haiti. Approximately 85% - 90% of the nation's forests have been destroyed since the 1960s, and the rate of destruction--now 1.7% per year--has accelerated since 2000. Most deforestation in El Salvador results from the country's high population that relies heavily on the collection of fuel wood and subsistence hunting and agriculture. Although the government has protected areas of forest, forestry laws go unenforced due to lack of funds and management. Salvanatura.org, the Ecological Foundation of El Salvador, is working on efforts to help protect the forests of El Salvador from continued destruction. Expect to hear of more frequent flooding disasters in El Salvador in the coming decades, as the country loses more of its forests, and as global warming brings an increase in heavy precipitation events due to higher amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Rainfall for the period 7 am Saturday, November 7, through 7 am Sunday, November 8, over El Salvador. Rainfall amounts in excess of 300 mm (about 12 inches, black colors) occurred over central El Salvador, near the capital of San Salvador. Image credit: El Salvador Weather Service (SNET).

For those interested in making a donation to assist in disaster relief for El Salvador, Portlight.org has a Paypal donation page set up for this. All funds raised will be forwarded to José Luis Escobar Alas, Catholic Archbishop of San Salvador, and used to assist flooding victims at the discretion of the Archbishop.

Jeff Masters

Tropical depression IDA (DiegoSagrera)
Debris on the bridge that takes you to Rosario de mora from Litoral road.(RN6S)This is why we have so much damage to our bridges, debris accumulates under the bridge and blocks the flow of water, the water finds new paths over or around the bridge thus damaging it.
Tropical depression IDA
Tropical Storm Ida (FatdaddyMead)
Pensacola Beach Fishing Pier as Ida approaches.
Tropical Storm Ida

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650. pearlandaggie
3:32 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
643. i've always felt that honorably discharged veterans should not have to pay income taxes as they've already paid their due...
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
649. TampaSpin
3:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
SEVERE & WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
648. Marlinzfan
3:18 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Thanks google search --

from Veterans Affairs Canada:

Facts on Remembrance Day

* Remembrance Day commemorates Canadians who died in service to Canada from the South African War to current missions. It is held every November 11.
* The first Remembrance Day was conducted in 1919 throughout the Commonwealth. Originally called Armistice Day, it commemorated the end of the First World War on Monday, November 11, 1918, at 11 a.m.: the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month.
* From 1923 to 1931, Armistice Day was held on the Monday of the week in which November 11 fell. Thanksgiving was also celebrated on this day.
* In 1931, MP Allan Neill introduced a bill to hold Armistice Day on a fixed day - November 11. During the bill's introduction, it was decided the word "Remembrance" would be used instead of "Armistice." The bill passed and Remembrance Day was first conducted on November 11, 1931. Thanksgiving Day was moved to October 12 that year.
* The poppy is the symbol of Remembrance Day. Replica poppies are sold by the Royal Canadian Legion to raise money for Veterans.



And a simple yet poignant poem was written by Lt. Col John McCrae, MD in 1915 while he was serving as a Royal Canadian Army Doctor during WW I called "In Flanders Field" (its the story of where the poppies come in)

"In Flanders Fields
By: Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)
Canadian Army

In Flanders Fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields."
647. Orcasystems
3:14 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
TS, you can ask almost any person who has served.. we didn't do it for the money. If we did, we would never have joined, there are much better paying Jobs.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
646. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
645. Marlinzfan
3:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting presslord:
...also...I believe in Canada it's celebrated as Remembrance Day...and "Thanks!" to those veterans, as well...


In all British Commonwealth Nations I believe today is celebrated as Remembrance Day(that includes Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Jamaica, The Bahamas, etc.)

Thanks to all who have served and continue to serve to protect the freedom of all. Your sacrifice is noted and appreciated.
644. Orcasystems
3:11 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
SWMBO has put a bunch of Tribute Videos in the remarks section of her Blog.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
643. TampaSpin
3:11 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Patrap, CyberTeddy, Grothar, StormW and others that I have not intentionally left out...

Thank you for your service to our country. It is greatly appreciated and not forgotten.



Great day to honor our VETS.....my daughter loves it too....her Birthday is today. She thinks everyone celebrates her BDday by taking off work....LOL! Not, to down play our VETs but, what an incredible job those Boys and Girls do and have done for country that serve us so proud. Wish the Gov. could give every person that stays in the military $100,000 for staying in for 5 yrs once releived of duty. Thats only a $20,000 bonus per year for an underpaid job. If we can throw away tarp money for bonus money what a better way to spend bonus money! Thank you for serving!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
642. AwakeInMaryland
3:11 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


It is Remembrance day here also... if that is the question :)

Yuppers; Veterans Day in U.S.
Presslord first to remember Canada today, also.
Thanks, neighbors.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
641. pearlandaggie
3:10 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
I was not aware of Remembrance Day in Canada. Thanks also for all the contributions of those veterans over the years. They certainly have served side-by-side with American soldiers in numerous conflicts.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
640. Floodman
3:10 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Patrap, CyberTeddy, Grothar, StormW and others that I have not intentionally left out...

Thank you for your service to our country. It is greatly appreciated and not forgotten.



Hear hear! Our heartfelt gratitude to all of you and particularly those that aren't with us, that gave what Lincoln called "The last full mesaure of devotion". We owe you our freedom...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
639. RTLSNK
3:08 PM GMT on November 11, 2009


Quoting presslord:
...also...I believe in Canada it's celebrated as Remembrance Day...and "Thanks!" to those veterans, as well...


And to all the nations around the world who have supported our Country as well.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19513
638. Orcasystems
3:08 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Thanks google search --

from Veterans Affairs Canada:

Facts on Remembrance Day

* Remembrance Day commemorates Canadians who died in service to Canada from the South African War to current missions. It is held every November 11.
* The first Remembrance Day was conducted in 1919 throughout the Commonwealth. Originally called Armistice Day, it commemorated the end of the First World War on Monday, November 11, 1918, at 11 a.m.: the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month.
* From 1923 to 1931, Armistice Day was held on the Monday of the week in which November 11 fell. Thanksgiving was also celebrated on this day.
* In 1931, MP Allan Neill introduced a bill to hold Armistice Day on a fixed day - November 11. During the bill's introduction, it was decided the word "Remembrance" would be used instead of "Armistice." The bill passed and Remembrance Day was first conducted on November 11, 1931. Thanksgiving Day was moved to October 12 that year.
* The poppy is the symbol of Remembrance Day. Replica poppies are sold by the Royal Canadian Legion to raise money for Veterans.



It is Remembrance day here also... if that is the question :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
637. PcolaDan
3:06 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
631. do the dates coincide? i was not aware of that.


from Wikipedia:
Common British, Canadian, South African, and ANZAC traditions include two minutes of silence at the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month (11:00 am, 11 November), as that marks the time (in the United Kingdom) when armistice became effective.

The Service of Remembrance in many Commonwealth countries generally includes the sounding of "Last Post," followed by the two minutes of silence, followed by the sounding of "Reveille" (or, more commonly, "The Rouse"), and finished by a recitation of the "Ode of Remembrance." The "Flowers of the Forest", "O Valiant Hearts", "I Vow to Thee, My Country" and "Jerusalem" are often played during the service. Services also include wreaths laid to honour the fallen, a blessing, and national anthems.[2]
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
636. TampaSpin
3:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
New loops on Home Page

Western Atlantic - Visible Loop

Eastern U. S. - Visible Loop
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
635. AwakeInMaryland
3:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Thanks google search --

from Veterans Affairs Canada:

Facts on Remembrance Day

* Remembrance Day commemorates Canadians who died in service to Canada from the South African War to current missions. It is held every November 11.
* The first Remembrance Day was conducted in 1919 throughout the Commonwealth. Originally called Armistice Day, it commemorated the end of the First World War on Monday, November 11, 1918, at 11 a.m.: the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month.
* From 1923 to 1931, Armistice Day was held on the Monday of the week in which November 11 fell. Thanksgiving was also celebrated on this day.
* In 1931, MP Allan Neill introduced a bill to hold Armistice Day on a fixed day - November 11. During the bill's introduction, it was decided the word "Remembrance" would be used instead of "Armistice." The bill passed and Remembrance Day was first conducted on November 11, 1931. Thanksgiving Day was moved to October 12 that year.
* The poppy is the symbol of Remembrance Day. Replica poppies are sold by the Royal Canadian Legion to raise money for Veterans.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
634. presslord
3:00 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
pearland...I'm not 100% sure...but according to my DayPlanner they do...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
632. pearlandaggie
2:58 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
631. do the dates coincide? i was not aware of that.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
631. presslord
2:57 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
...also...I believe in Canada it's celebrated as Remembrance Day...and "Thanks!" to those veterans, as well...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
629. Portlight
2:54 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
post 626...very nice...
Member Since: January 7, 2009 Posts: 114 Comments: 412
628. AwakeInMaryland
2:52 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
High Wind Warning
(Also under Coastal Flood Watches & High Surf Advisories)

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS AND NEARBY INLAND AREAS...

DEZ004-NJZ024-112245-
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.W.0003.091111T2300Z-091113T1100Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...REHOBOTH BEACH...OCEAN CITY
943 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH...A STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS
MIGHT ALSO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
627. Buhdog
2:31 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
I was actually awoken last night by rain in Cape Coral Fl....the first measurable rain it seems in forever! My grass looked happy today. Nice pic caicos.....she is classically naked!
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
626. pearlandaggie
2:29 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Patrap, CyberTeddy, Grothar, StormW and others that I have not intentionally left out...

Thank you for your service to our country. It is greatly appreciated and not forgotten.

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
625. beell
2:28 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting largeeyes:
beell, I read that too. What cut off low are they talking about? 98L?


The same shortwave that dipped down into the GOM from TX. This was the feature that gave us all fits on timing. Sooner-Ida turns E while still in the GOM. Slower-Ida comes straight N. We know how that worked out. I believe it entrained some of the mid level vorticity ripped off the top of Ida from the very high shear encountered.

A model look before it cuts off over the SE:
06Z GFS 500mb/Valid 12Z




Valid Thursday, 12Z
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
624. TampaSpin
2:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting DoubleAction:


I'am not a meteorologist, but I know just enough to make me dangerous to my peers ..lol.
I believe the convergence of three lows was at least partially explained but here is my take. A subtropical system (which the models showed Ida becoming in the GOM)can converge with another low and gain strength from it. A good example is a subtropical storm ingesting a tropical system like a hurricane. What happens is the pressure drops much lower in the subtropical system and it gains the moisture. Since subtropical systems have larger wind field (also farther away from the core) they can impact a much larger area with gale force winds up to hurricane force. If you watched Ida closely you could see about 12 hours prior to landfall she regained some intensity by ingesting the weaker low to her west. Albeit shear was too great at that point. Add a frontal system dropping in and you increase the pressure gradient between the low and the high behind the front. That also increases the potential gale event north of the storm, do not try to drive the boat home through that pressure gradient! Tampaspin and Reed used the Halloween storm as an example, problem is, the timing has to be perfect, the BOC low never developed and the front was too late (ie Ida was too fast). A good example of this is might occur in the next day or two, the low to the east 98l and Ida's surface low might merge as another front begins to dip. Forecast for NC and just north is 35-45 knot gale with seas to 25 feet as of now, might go up, also 9 inches of rain, that's a pretty significant storm I would say. No?


I agree with everything you stated. I was a little agressive with the development of the storm as a whole but,if you look at my blog i posted i also stated that the Xtrap Low must develop better to be a player for all to come to gether and you soe well put it, that did not happen. The timing just was not there as IDA speed up just fast enough to not allow the 3 to come together. Great job of putting everything into words! Nice piece.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
623. AwakeInMaryland
2:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Thank you to all Veterans and those currently serving.

Yahoo "Buzz" page
The 11th Hour: The Date Behind Veterans Day
by Claudine Zap


While most know that Veterans Day honors those who have served in the military, the meaning behind its exact date (November 11) may not be so familiar. Here's the backstory:

Back in 1918, in the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, a stop to hostilities was declared, ending World War I. An armistice to cease the fighting on the Western Front was signed by the Allied powers and Germany.

President Woodrow Wilson immediately proclaimed the day "Armistice Day," kicking off the annual commemoration on November 11. But over the years, with veterans returning from World War II and the Korean War, Armistice Day became Veterans Day — a day reserved to honor veterans returning from all wars. But 11/11 still represented the end of the Great War in the public's mind, and the date stuck.

In 1921, unidentified dead from the war were buried in Arlington National Cemetery in Washington, D.C., Westminster Abbey in London, and the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. The tradition to honor those killed in the war but never identified continues every year in the U.S. The ceremony is held at 11 a.m. at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery.

Congress designated Veterans Day as a legal holiday in 1938, and since then, most Americans have come to know it as a day for store sales and parades. Yahoo! Searches on the holiday have already surged on the Web. People want to know "veterans day history," "veterans day closings," veterans day sales," and "veterans day free meals."
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
622. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:20 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
98L another risque swirl



Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
621. WxLogic
2:19 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Good morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
620. Orcasystems
2:17 PM GMT on November 11, 2009


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
619. largeeyes
2:15 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
beell, I read that too. What cut off low are they talking about? 98L?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
618. SpicyAngel1072
2:14 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Thanks P451!!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
617. nrtiwlnvragn
2:12 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Extratropical Water Level Forecast

Select desired area for forecast above normal tide levels.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10462
616. Grothar
2:09 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Happy Veteran's Day fellow veteran's. I don't think Dr. Masters will mind a little off-topic on this one. Thank you all ladies and gentlemen for your service. Always reminds me of our friends who are not here to remember it with us.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
615. AresPathfinder
2:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Really needed that storm to plow into the south Florida area. Family business dependent upon heavy rains. Gainesville is rather unscathed by rain or wind. Humid cloudy morning with light showers.
614. beell
2:03 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Very nice Discussion from these guys this morning (link to full discussion below).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
441 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE
NC COAST THU AND FRI. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD JUST
OFF THE SE COAST WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW FRI AND SAT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
E OF THE AREA WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS PUSHED E OF THE REGION SAT AS A
ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING
FOR UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE ERN STATES.

Newport / Morehead City NC Area Forecast Discussion
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
613. RTLSNK
1:56 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Flood Warning
Statement as of 3:05 AM EST on November 11, 2009


... Flood Warning extended until late Friday night... the Flood Warning
continues for
the Ocmulgee River near Macon
* from early tomorrow until late Friday night.
* At 2 am EST Wednesday the stage was 18.2 feet... and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring. Minor flood is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast to continue to rise to near 22.3 feet early Friday
afternoon. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage by
Sunday.
* At 19.0 feet... minor flooding continues. The Macon Greenway
Ocmulgee heritage trail will begin to flood in areas just north of
the fifth street bridge. Citizens of the trail will need to stop
use. In addition... the lowest sections of the Charles Jones Gateway
Park will flood.






Wind Advisory
Statement as of 3:20 AM EST on November 11, 2009


... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM EST this evening...

A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM EST this evening...
for all of north and central Georgia.

A strong pressure gradient will continue over the area due to the
remnants of Ida and strong high pressure over the Great Lakes
area. Winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 can be
expected to continue through this evening. Additionally... with
wet ground conditions across the area... it will not take very
strong winds for trees to begin to fall.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 20 to 35 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.







Record Report
Statement as of 4:15 am EST on November 11, 2009


... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Atlanta...

a record rainfall of 4.05 inches was set at Atlanta yesterday. This
breaks the old record of 2.57 set in 1966.



Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19513
612. RTLSNK
1:54 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
System finally clearing the Georgia area:
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19513
611. MZV
1:52 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Looks like this could shape up to be a wild nor'easter in a few days. The wind forecasts for the inland Carolinas are already pretty impressive.
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 227
610. pearlandaggie
1:52 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
603. are you sure it's not the conservation of angular momentum that's causing the problem? :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
609. Drakoen
1:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Line of showers and thunderstorms moving over South Florida. Should become more prolific with the heating of the day.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
606. lawntonlookers
1:39 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting P451:
Extratropical Ida has a good reach to her. Giving me a humid showery morning all the way up in NJ. Interacting a bit with a weak front but it's Ida's moisture alright. (And the boc hybrid, and 96e, and the texas ull, and the n-mexico trough, etc).






Pressures also falling over the entire east coast. I wonder if the suggested nor'easter could indeed form as an end result to all of this.



Just on the northern edge here in PA. 451, looks like you may get more rain.

Have you looked at any of the surf reports for the next couple of days. I heard that along the Delmar they are expected to pretty heavy.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
604. SpicyAngel1072
1:31 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
I have read over the last few days that shear actually helps an extratropical storm to form. So wouldn't it help the one in the atlantic form? If not ....please explain why.

Thanks! :)
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
603. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:28 PM GMT on November 11, 2009

Re: #588. presslord

...Paul note that your link takes you back to the Dr's blog
...seen that happen to other people. Happened to me once posting a link.

As I see it... Presslord is a big wheel... and this appears to be a cumulative rotational trajectory caused problem.

heh heh

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
602. SpicyAngel1072
1:27 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting biff4ugo:
Ok, there is rain, and then there is rain.
Ida may have brought surf and rain along a northerly track with the wave of thunderstorms that headed that way.
The part of the track that headed east across Florida scarcely broght an inch to the central part of the state.
The forecast says rain today, but the radar is already clear.
Just saying that what the models were calling the storm and the center of thunderstorm activity seemed very different after landfall.


yes I was hoping for serious rain here in central FL. It states 40% chance but your right...radar is clear. How can that be?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
601. biff4ugo
1:21 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Ok, there is rain, and then there is rain.
Ida may have brought surf and rain along a northerly track with the wave of thunderstorms that headed that way.
The part of the track that headed east across Florida scarcely broght an inch to the central part of the state.
The forecast says rain today, but the radar is already clear.
Just saying that what the models were calling the storm and the center of thunderstorm activity seemed very different after landfall.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1496
600. CybrTeddy
1:16 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
reed and tampa=wishcasters two top five wishcasters on the blog telling each other there not wishcasting


You really are confused aren't you? Reeds usually pretty good at his forecasting, and Tampa called Claudette's formation well before the NHC did. We thought he was crazy when he looked at the Tampa radar and started to see a circulation form. Apparently the NHC noticed it too and they upped Pre-Claudette to 'Red' from 'Yellow',
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.