Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 AM GMT on November 10, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.

The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.

The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.


Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.




Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.

Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Getting higher wind gusts in central and south Florida.

east central FL 10min wind avg 3mph from SSE
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What did you do now Matt?


LOL

off topic post (?) ha I dunno why I was banned, but it's whatever
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
When was the last time a T.S. was about to make a CONUS landfall....and most bloggers just turned in for the night?


because its not making a landfall! The tropical rodation itself stalled near the mouth of mississippii... sorryt kinda drunk and full of crow
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What did you do now Matt?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
594. 789
Quoting tornadodude:
good morning guys
dude good morning
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Missed everything Matt. All those affected by Ida went to bed.


well I was banned :P
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Getting higher wind gusts in central and south Florida.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
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Missed everything Matt. All those affected by Ida went to bed.
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589. xcool
rain alot
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good morning guys
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Winds gusting higher in Freeport, Florida. The highest winds so far. Small branches being knocked down out of some trees hitting roof. Light rain. Cool temps. Does not feel tropical outside.
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When was the last time a T.S. was about to make a CONUS landfall....and most bloggers just turned in for the night?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
And how long to the big day? Link
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584. IKE
This un-naked swirl is heading to sleep-land.

Good night and good morning cyberspace.:)
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Quoting IKE:
...IDA SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
12:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb


there is no way that nakes swirl is 60mph anymore. it's going to just stall there and die.
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582. IKE
21 days or 504 hours from right now and the tropical season is finished.
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DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
...and the sprinklers just came on! XD Like we need more!
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579. VTG
PWS readings are sometimes suspect. Didn't make sense to me either.

I don't really like using them, but they are good when official stations aren't reporting (or when they send in bad information).
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Quoting VTG:
east hills, Pensacola, Florida (PWS)

The report seems inaccurate. Note that the peak gust is only 15mph for the entire day.


PWS readings are sometimes suspect. Didn't make sense to me either.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
577. VTG
Current Conditions
Pensacola, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 54 sec ago
70 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 28 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 40 mph

Gusts at TS strength, as expected.

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Quoting mossyhead:
According to the NHC discussion, the location does not matter since the rain is way north of the center and the winds are widespread.


Correct...Just look at the satellite image at post 566.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Time: 05:36:30Z
Coordinates: 29.4333N 88.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.6 mb (~ 24.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.1 mb (~ 29.47 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 230° at 17 knots (From the SW at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.2°C (~ 68.4°F)
Dew Pt: 7.7°C (~ 45.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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574. VTG
east hills, Pensacola, Florida (PWS)

The report seems inaccurate. Note that the peak gust is only 15mph for the entire day.
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Quoting IKE:
...IDA SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
12:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
According to the NHC discussion, the location does not matter since the rain is way north of the center and the winds are widespread.
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572. IKE
...IDA SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
12:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
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quickly travelling line moving across coastoal areas now .. very interesting as it's moving in a way not similar to the areas around it .. and as I'm typing I hear gusts picking up greatly here in NW mobile ... I'll be back .. partay time =D
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east hills, Pensacola, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 7 sec ago
68.3 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the South
Wind Gust: 12.7 mph
Pressure: 29.70 in (Falling)
Visibility: 3.0 miles

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And you are no Reed. BTW, I'm surprised he's not on this morning.


You mean Reed "Perfect Storm of the Century" Zone ... hasn't been on. Yea ... NO SURPRISE there! Put him and JFV in a room together.
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568. VTG
Winds rapidly increasing in Pensacola- they went from less than 10mph 30 minutes ago... to some gusts likely approaching TS strength now.
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Wow... I have to say, I'm impressed with the winds we're getting... the rain has backed off temporarily, but the winds seem like they're just getting started! Our trees are really getting whipped around.

We've had a couple of power dips, but we still have our power. I have friends north of Pensacola that have no power right now.

Kids are in bed with glow sticks... still not asleep, though. LOL
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ida
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
684

TCCA23 KNHC 100020

STDWCA



SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0015 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009





SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TS IDA



MAX RAINFALL

DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST

----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

10/0015 UTC 29.2N 88.5W 355/15 5.6 IN 3.7 IN





LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...



DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER

------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 2.0 TO 3.3 IN 2.5 TO 3.7 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 1.8 TO 2.4 IN 0.9 TO 2.4 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 1.4 TO 2.0 IN 0.5 TO 1.1 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.9 TO 2.1 IN 0.0 TO 0.5 IN





...LEGEND...



SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM

(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)



DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME

COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT



LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY

POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS

OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE



MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM

IN DEGREES AND KNOTS



MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF

RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED

ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART



LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR

THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE



RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR

DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE

SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)

INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM

(1 IN = 25.4 MM)



FORECASTER NELSON



NNNN
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Just went to waters edge at 3mile bridge Pensacola. Winds are calmer but rain is heavier. I'm thinking it's the "calm" before the real winds.
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Problem is, the H*Wind analysis is showing this station in the 29 knot range as of about an hour ago. Anemometer height aside, that just doesn't seem right to me. Closer to 35 - 40 for sustained at 10 meters an hour ago...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Highest winds still off shore... I just looked at the buoy data on Google earth... it would appear to be U/S.
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lastest storm totals as of 512z
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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HWind analysis updated (includes HH obs up to close to now), zoomed in version:


Highest wind not QC'ed out, 58 knots NW of center. And, yes, peak winds inside the Chandeleurs.

No radar and little of significance on satellite near her center nor at the peak winds. No static surface wind platform anywhere near peak winds...

Your winds with a south component will not be on shore for a while yet.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Alright ladies and gentlemen had to have a couple of beer brats before night time so I bid you ado, watch out for those commies down south I think they commandeered one of our weather control satellites, keep a look at down south, if you are ok with what's going on up north , take care.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Still not high tide yet...makes me wonder about biloxi because Back Bay was very high when I left work at 330.


My mother-in-law lives on Back Bay. She was fine as of a couple of hours ago. There new house is about 10 feet in the air.
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556. VTG
here is latest storm totals anmin loop piling up fast


Rainfall totals seem to be highest around Foley. It wouldn't surprise me to see a flash flood warning there.
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919

URNT12 KNHC 100505

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009

A. 10/04:44:40Z

B. 29 deg 22 min N

088 deg 46 min W

C. 850 mb 1410 m

D. 39 kt

E. 111 deg 28 nm

F. 196 deg 48 kt

G. 121 deg 54 nm

H. 998 mb

I. 15 C / 1522 m

J. 21 C / 1524 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0811A IDA OB 14

MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 02:26:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 05:01:00Z

;
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Quoting PascMississippi:
Just got back from a ride. The water has come up a good bit since last ride. The boat ramp piers are under water. The water is half way up in the parking lot. The gulf water is now rolling over the seawall and pushing into Beach Blvd with the waves. The waves are not big, but the water is higher. There is still not south wind here. I might take one more ride before the water gets too high to go down Beach Blvd.

Still not high tide yet...makes me wonder about biloxi because Back Bay was very high when I left work at 330.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
ok i give up waiting for the vortex message...I have to get some sleep. Winds died off a bit here. Im sure they will come back though. Good luck all.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
Just got back from a ride. The water has come up a good bit since last ride. The boat ramp piers are under water. The water is half way up in the parking lot. The gulf water is now rolling over the seawall and pushing into Beach Blvd with the waves. The waves are not big, but the water is higher. There is still not south wind here. I might take one more ride before the water gets too high to go down Beach Blvd.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I posted yesterday afternoon that Ida was leaving a little present behind does anybody see anything around Cuba to back that up.
eventually that will become a cold front
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
24.8N/60.1W


Naaa phoenix erm i mean Joaquin, won't be "rapping" up into said name anytime soon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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