Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Drak,
When do you think that tail will come through our area. I am supposed to fly out of PBI tomorrow late morning. Hopefully no delays.
(How does a WS anemometer go so wrong, anyway? Low bias makes perfect sense, this does not.)
Yep.
And the TV mets down here haven't mentioned it.
In SEFL anyway.
Link
No power problems at all, so far. I live in Fox Hollow, and our lines are underground, but we're maybe 100 yards from the big station on Jernigan fed from the Crist plant. Usually, when the power goes it, you can hear the explosion there. At this point, I'm more worried about the water on the roads. It looks like the Ganges in front of my house.
YES, and maybe
But check with you local NWS office for something more definitive.
Yep. 26mph winds gusting to 30mph in Palm Beach county, FL with a coastal flood statement.
Coastal Flood Statement for Coastal Palm Beach County, FL
until 7 am EST, Tue., Nov. 10, 2009
Local Radar MapWhat's This?
Updated 9 Nov 2009 9:20 pm Local Time
Enlarge Map | Weather in Motion®
Get WeatherReady
What to Do During a Flood
After the Flood
Home Cleanup Tips
Facts About Flooding
Video: WeatherReady Safety & Preparation
Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL
8:05 pm EST, Mon., Nov. 9, 2009
SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF MAIMI-DADE... BROWARD... AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT. PEOPLE ARE NOT ADVISED TO GO SWIMMING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER FROM NEAR OR INSIDE THE SAND BAR INTO DEEPER WATER. DUE TO THE LIFE THREATENING DANGERS THAT THESE STRONG CURRENTS OF WATER POSE... SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED.
SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IF YOU DO GO INTO THE WATER SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT DO NOT ATTEMPT TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD... MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES.
AN ALTERNATE METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS... WHERE THE FORCE WEAKENS... AND THEN SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE CURRENT.
&&
More Information
... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT...
Wait, you didn't notice the 80 MPH winds recorded at Ocean Springs?
Didn't feel the 200 mph gust?
Guess I'm jaded after Katrina!
Yes on the severe weather potential across the FL peninsula later tonight into mid week.
02:04:30Z 29.167N 88.817W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,473 meters
(~ 4,833 feet) 996.8 mb
(~ 29.44 inHg)
Yes read comment 29 & 30
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TampaSpin/comment.html?entrynum=142#commenttop
On Wednesday most likely
Bunch of Indians taking ceremonial bath in your front yard? :)
Cool. Thanks.
Followed by lows in the 50's and highs in the mid 70's.
Just took the pup out for a walk...winds pretty brisk, feels great.
At this point in the disorganization, I doubt it matters (thankfully)
(~ 58.6 mph)
There is a station in theodore that has been reporting over 60 mph all evening. Some folks need to check their equipment. I have recorded highest sustained at 13.7 mph and highest gust at 27.8 mph... East side Mobile bay.
Doubt it. Not near enough winds around to do that, except for the odd branch maybe.
I doubt we even get a 40 mph gust. I was quoting another poster, but messed up the formatting. Sorry.
I doubt that seriously...at least I am fairly sure Pat didn't.
Nothing about power outages in the NOLA news. A LOT of could be, might, maybe in the news, though (covering and hoping for ratings?)
I know I should've taken the handle "Captain Idiot" instead, but are we essentially done with the weather here? I dunno, I guess I was expecting more ...
As always, thanks!
Hi from Riveriew Fl. Light mist rain here
He's couple of counties east of me. Doubt he has much to speak of there either. Worse weather from afternoon thunderstorms in summer than what we've seen today.
Good evening Storm!
I have the NWS Flood map that updates 24/7 posted on my web for those that need it.
We have those kind of winds down here in the West Palm Beach area. Some local areas down here did lose power for a few hours this afternoon.
It is a really bad station anemometer issue...Ida is giving no one that kind of wind. I doubt seriously we see a 80 mph gust, much less sustained.
This station did it: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MD2813
Whacky and entirely wrong, I assure you.
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