Ida strengthens, could be a hurricane for the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida is slowly strengthening, as it heads north-northwest towards an encounter with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain moderate through Sunday night. SSTs are a warm 29°C, and the total ocean heat content is over 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for intensification. The rains have ended over Nicaragua and Honduras, and Ida dumped up to eleven inches of rain along the coast in Nicaragua, causing flooding that damaged thousands of homes, but caused no deaths or injuries as of yet.


Figure 1. Satellite-estimated rainfall from Ida. The dark red colors (275 mm) represent rainfall in excess of about eleven inches. Image credit: NASA/TRMM project. Wunderground meteorologist Dr. Rob Carver presents another estimate of Ida's precipitation in his blog today.

The forecast for Ida
The moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for continued slow but steady intensification of Ida through Sunday afternoon, as long as the center remains over water. I give Ida a medium (30 - 50% chance) of reaching Category 1 hurricane strength before arriving at the Yucatan, since the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is so high. We'll have a better idea of Ida's current strength early this afternoon, when the Hurricane Hunters have had time to investigate the storm.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 46% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. The odds of receiving hurricane force winds are given as 3%. Given the current trend in organization of Ida, these numbers should probably be bumped up to about 60% and 5%, respectively.

Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.

I'll have an update later today, or on Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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4:18 AM GMT on November 10, 2009
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2899. portcharlotte
7:37 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
IDA is gonna stall and the front will push her back, not sure where JMO


I certainly give you credit for seeing this as I do...This storm is not moving northwest or Northnorthwest at 10 or 12 mph..There will be changes unless NHC does not want to admit it
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2898. portcharlotte
7:34 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
There's no doubt..there's a change in the motion..I definitely see some slight east leaning..The overall satellitie image is ne/sw an indication sometimes of a northeast moving system down the road...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2897. kmanhurricaneman
5:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
IDA is gonna stall and the front will push her back, not sure where JMO
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
2896. catastropheadjuster
4:29 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
What do you all think us folks in Lower Alabama well around Mobile should expect? I am asking cause we have a boat repair shop on chickasabogue creek and I didn't know if the water will be coming up or what? Just wondering and need a little help.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3674
2895. kanc2001
4:20 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting stormy2008:
"THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA."


This may be an interesting thing to watch as well.


similar setup to the cliche perfect storm of Oct 91
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181
2894. atmoaggie
4:10 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2893. weathersp
3:59 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting portcharlotte:


No Movement?


Trying to find it's bearings after forming a complete eyewall
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2892. portcharlotte
3:51 PM GMT on November 08, 2009


No Movement?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2891. portcharlotte
3:47 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
I see a wobble or meandering by IDA at present..Anyone else concur or possibly I am wrong...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2890. stormwatcherCI
3:44 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT , FL, United States
(KEYW) 24-33N 81-46W 5M
Conditions at

2009.11.08 1453 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 KT) gusting to 33 MPH (29 KT)
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8341
2889. CyberStorm
3:38 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting portcharlotte:
It might be temporary but I see a slow down with IDA in the last hour.
storms right on course.NHC has handled this nicely.there will not be much more deviation from forecast.48 hour forecast are typcally spot on.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 211
2888. fishinfool33825
3:35 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Highlands County, smack dab in the middle of the state of Florida. The pressure gradient alone has us under 15mph sustained winds with gusts in the past 20 minutes of 25+mph. We are going to see strong winds regardless of how close Ida's approach. We could use a bit of rain with it though. Not much rain here for the past 45 days.
2887. portcharlotte
3:35 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
It might be temporary but I see a slow down with IDA in the last hour.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2886. fishinfool33825
3:32 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOOKS Like twins....the collision of these to lows with the cold front and the pressure gradient created by the high that will be East of this all is in my opinion being completely underplayed.......i hope i'm wrong.


I am in complete agreement with this statement. That front was pretty wicked in the PNW with gale force winds and when added to the mix of whats already in the GOM, I shiver at the possibility of the tornado activity this could spawn from S GA all the way down the peninsula.
2885. responderkv
3:31 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Here in Cozumel, MX we've got some occasional gusts ~30mph. The data buoy 42056 has been registering 30knts gusts. Thankfully we didn't receive the forecasted 90mph winds, nobody boarded up. I think we're in the clear.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
2884. dearmas
3:30 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:
I picked a bad time to get H1N1 ... this sucks. last time we had to evacuate (Dennis), my son had Rotavirus.


My 9yr old has swin also and it is really nasty. The fevers are high.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
2883. 1965
3:29 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting bingcrosby:
I think what will be incredibly interesting will be the pressure gradient from the high to the north and the low to the south. Especially when it starts to go extra-tropical. Don't be surprised to see some very high winds across a good portion of the southeast. Maybe 20-25 mph with gusts over 40mph.


Totally agree. Suspect there will be a fair amount of tree damage well inland. Tree damage=power failure. People well inland need to keep apprised of this situation, and not have needless deaths as happened in Alabama and Georgia during Opal.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
2881. WeatherCaneFF1331
3:26 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting txag91met:
I am not as convinced of this rapid transition to extratropical. ECMWF suggests a band o higher thickness around Ida extending around the eye through landfall, this system may stay intact longer than anyone thinks regardless of the cooler water temperatures. We will see.

i agree
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
2880. txag91met
3:25 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
I am not as convinced of this rapid transition to extratropical. ECMWF suggests a band o higher thickness around Ida extending around the eye through landfall, this system may stay intact longer than anyone thinks regardless of the cooler water temperatures. We will see.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 749
2879. Progster
3:25 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
What some don't understand the hurricane watch may not necessarily mean landfall, hurricane conditions possible and because the nature and set up this system, the effects may occur ahead of the system.

We already forget the pressure gradient and moisture fetch.


True, but destructive potential increases with the speed of the wind *squared*. 80 kt is 2.5 times more forceful than 50 kt. So while long fetch storm force winds can create significant problems for coastal communities from wave action, and heavy rain is a problem almost everywhere, it is still important to know the track of the area of the strongest winds.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
2878. Drakoen
3:24 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30339
2877. hurricane23
3:24 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Also Ida may make landfall as a category 1 non-tropical low. It does not really make a difference.


If that, strong westerlies should begin to impact the system pretty dramatically as it approaches the gulfcoast. TS winds could spread onshore as the windfield expands during ET transition.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13762
2876. stormpetrol
3:24 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Good morning.Funny Ida alot further away from us here in Grand Cayman and it is much more squally & rainy today than yesterday.
I think Ida might be headed for SWFL imo, she has slowed a bit from I can tell and resume a more northerly movement, jmo of course.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
2875. Cavin Rawlins
3:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting JamesSA:
Can I ask a slightly dumb question? What is preventing Ida from being drawn more west by the low pressure of the storm in the BOC and Western GOM?


an advancing upper trough. the BOC is just a surface feature.

Also Ida has a lower pressure than the BOC system, it wont be attracted towards something that has a higher pressure.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2874. WeatherCaneFF1331
3:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting mossyhead:
Hopefully it will not as bad it could be. But being on the north side of the county like we are, our power should not be off for long. My wife and i sleep with the heat off unless it is freezing or below, but we like to turn the heat on for our showers.



i live in milton which is just east of p'cola its kinda ironic how my late great great grandmothers name was ida she passed 2 yrs ago ( may she rest in peace ) and now a storm named after her is comming this way.
lmao
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
2873. stormy2008
3:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
"THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA."


This may be an interesting thing to watch as well.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 215
2872. IKE
3:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Looks like landfall forecasted by the NHC to be near Pensacola,FL.

CycloneOZ....you picked the perfect spot.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2871. lawntonlookers
3:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOOKS Like twins....the collision of these to lows with the cold front and the pressure gradient created by the high that will be East of this all is in my opinion being completely underplayed.......i hope i'm wrong.


451 and a few other have been agreeing with that for a couple of days. We will see.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
2870. Autistic2
3:22 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


extratropical storm with hurricane force winds.


Thanks`, I thoiught that was not possible but hey i don't know much about weather patterns expect to stay away from the real powerfull ones.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
2869. nrtiwlnvragn
3:22 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11115
2868. bjdsrq
3:20 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting charlottefl:
Think the pressure gradient is going to be a big deal for the entire gulf coast. I mean hey I'm in the southern part of SWFL and the wind has been howling all week. That will only increase as that gradient gets tighter.


It ain't exactly "howling", just kind of pleasantly breezy, sunny and dry for now. Nice to have the windows open for the first time since April.
Member Since: July 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428
2867. WPBHurricane05
3:20 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
A wind advisory is in effect for much of Central and South Florida because of pressure gradient between the high and Ida.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2866. icepilot
3:20 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting IKE:


See post 2848.


Got it just after the post, thanks, and I'm going to start putting the heavy weather bill in effect - lopsided grin
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
2865. txag91met
3:19 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Leaves are turning color in SE TX and we have a hurricane in the Gulf---man, gotta love weather.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 749
2864. bingcrosby
3:19 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
I think what will be incredibly interesting will be the pressure gradient from the high to the north and the low to the south. Especially when it starts to go extra-tropical. Don't be surprised to see some very high winds across a good portion of the southeast. Maybe 20-25 mph with gusts over 40mph.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
2863. Cavin Rawlins
3:19 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2862. JamesSA
3:19 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Can I ask a slightly dumb question? What is preventing Ida from being drawn more west by the low pressure of the storm in the BOC and Western GOM?
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
2861. Cavin Rawlins
3:19 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting Autistic2:
Exactley what is an EXtra tropical Hurricane? Sounds like catch 22 to me.
Quoting Autistic2:
Exactley what is an EXtra tropical Hurricane? Sounds like catch 22 to me.


extratropical storm with hurricane force winds.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2860. portcharlotte
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:


That is possible as shown by the UKMET model. Every thing comes down to speed. The DLM shows higher pressure to the southeast of Ida with Ida in the northern periphery of the anitcyclone. The flow in the central GOM is northerly with the incoming trough and the flow over Florida is easterly with the trough in the east and the flow around the periphery of the anticyclone. So it is possible that the system could recurve a bit earlier than the NHC is forecasted. The NHC's cone extends all the way down the south Florida reflecting such a possibility.


Thanks...the advancing trough will eventually change that northerly flow in the central Gulf to more southwesterly
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2859. naplesdreamer28
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
portcharlotte - Heck, I was one of those. I saw the cone this morning and was going on with my day as yeah, nothing for SW FL. But you say that, why?
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
2858. mossyhead
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting portcharlotte:


Glad someone called this out..I agree...As Drak said that trough is already in the west Gulf. IDA could easily slow and turn more eastward.. The Watch was too early ...There will be changes. A watch like this leaves Florida thinking they are in the cleat. Very untrue!
I guess i must get use to other Floridians not thinking NW Florida is not part of Florida even though the capital of Florida is in the panhandle.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
2857. Cavin Rawlins
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Also Ida may make landfall as a category 1 non-tropical low. It does not really make a difference.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2856. IKE
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE LAST PASS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
1100 UTC SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND AN ELLIPTICAL EYE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA AND MEXICO SINCE THAT
TIME SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE STRUCTURE. BASED ON
THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION...WITH THE CENTER OF IDA REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH IT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND ITS
COLLEAGUES. THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION ALSO RESULTS IN A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SO
THE 72-96 HR POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AS WELL.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR
MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IS
LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH 48 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THAT TIME.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT IDA WILL LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM- OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
THUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE...FOR NOW...BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE
WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.2N 86.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2855. Autistic2
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Exactley what is an EXtra tropical Hurricane? Sounds like catch 22 to me.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
2854. charlottefl
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Think the pressure gradient is going to be a big deal for the entire gulf coast. I mean hey I'm in the southern part of SWFL and the wind has been howling all week. That will only increase as that gradient gets tighter.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
2853. stormy2008
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
000
WTNT41 KNHC 081516
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE LAST PASS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
1100 UTC SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND AN ELLIPTICAL EYE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA AND MEXICO SINCE THAT
TIME SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE STRUCTURE. BASED ON
THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION...WITH THE CENTER OF IDA REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH IT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND ITS
COLLEAGUES. THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION ALSO RESULTS IN A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SO
THE 72-96 HR POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AS WELL.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR
MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IS
LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH 48 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THAT TIME.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT IDA WILL LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM- OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
THUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE...FOR NOW...BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE
WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.2N 86.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 215
2852. bjdsrq
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
emGotta love the many downcasters that keep saying IDA would get ripped in the GOM by Shear.....guess what that is not going to happen until she reaches the very northern part....click to loop...


If this map pans out, NHC is going to be eating crow and begging for "Obama money" like everyone else.
Member Since: July 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428
2851. eyesontheweather
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting scottsvb:
3 things that will never happen!

1. Hurricane hitting Tampa

2. Hurricane hitting Jacksonville

3. Cleveland sports team winning a Championship!
FYI, Navy Met Site takes this across the panhandle and exiting back into Atlantic over Jacksonville FL as a TS. That can mean a path of destruction/damage from Grang Isle LA all the way to Jacksonville FL. Remember the amount of damage it did going across central America. I remind folks of Cent America so people in the above path will be prepared.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
2850. IKE
3:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting icepilot:

Is there a new storm center track farther north? It looked to me to skirt just south of the panhandle although the precip forcasts showed a NE track of heavy rains starting at the Mobile area


See post 2848.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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