Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting P451:


Absolutely no way is she just a 45mph TS. No way. The HH's are going to find a much stronger storm.

What is going on at the NHC is practically negligent. Yet, they've been a curious bunch all year so I'm not surprised.

They're acting like an NBA player who just got a huge contract he didn't deserve and now doesn't have to try anymore.

*knicks fan here, please shoot me*



Actually the NHC has done very well this year. Everyone needs to relax and wait for the HH to get in there and see what is going on. IDA looks great this morning but no one knows what is going to happen when it gets to the gulf. That is when the forecast is going to get complicated. There is stil a chance for every scenario to happen. To early to be declaring any one idea.
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Quoting Marlinzfan:


I am in Miami this morning for the U of Miami game at 12 noon vs Virgina. Ground game had best be going for the Canes as no one will be throwing the ball a lot in this wind, its really gusty out there.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the stadium is completely enclosed.... you think it'll cause issues today... winds are supposed to be 25-35 consistently today... and Jacory throws a ..well lets just say ..not sharp ball...well ballon boy ball.... I hope we can run ....
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BUOY9VKH2
lat: 19.60
lon: -93.70

Temperature: 75 °F
Dew Point: 73 °F
Humidity: 90%
Wind: WSW at 12mph
Pressure: 29.83in
Precipitation: -in
Daily Precip.: -in
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12:45 UTC

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ida: Continuing to defy the odds. How it accomplished this feat in November, during an El Nino year I'm not really sure. How it also went from a Tropical Disturbance to a Hurricane in less than 24 hours in November, during an El Nino years a few days back.. stunning.


Ida is a rebel that likes to break the rules of nature.
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Good morning everyone,

Well, Ida looks like a perfectly shaped cyclone right now and looks like it now has a perfect "eye".

I guess we should be happy they are saying only winds of 45 mph or this would be a perfect small hurricane.

And those models with the trip to the North, then dive back south... do we have a clue where it will end up?

She does not seem to be doing what she was forcasted to do 2 days ago or even yesterday morning.

This will be interesting to watch.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
Quoting jipmg:
Going to be a windy day in SFLA, as ida strengthens and moves more notherly the pressure gradient is expected to tighten even more.. forecasts say potential for common wind gusts up and over 30mph


I am in Miami this morning for the U of Miami game at 12 noon vs Virgina. Ground game had best be going for the Canes as no one will be throwing the ball a lot in this wind, its really gusty out there.
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Ida: Continuing to defy the odds. How it accomplished this feat in November, during an El Nino year I'm not really sure. How it also went from a Tropical Disturbance to a Hurricane in less than 24 hours in November, during an El Nino years a few days back.. stunning.

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2176. unf97
Good morning Storm and everyone on WU.

I briefly woke up to see the 4 a.m. Advisory and IR imagery on IDA. I went back to sleep, and 4 hours later, it looks as IDA even looks more impressive. She is doing quite nicely, maintaining an impressive CDO and even though there is some shear on the SW side of her, it looks as though she is on her way back to regaining hurricane status. She ciould very well be close to that now. We will know more for sure when the Hurricane Hunters get in ther later today.

Looking forward to today and the rest of this weekend and the upcoming week. It is certainly going to be interesting indeed to say the least.

Storm, looking forward to what your analysis will be on the situation, along with our distinquished host, Dr Masters.
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2175. IKE
1245UTC....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


I think we have had more rain than this shows and the winds have picked up some from earlier but generally a nasty day in Grand Cayman.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting StormW:


Palm Harbor, FL. Just west of Tampa.

Hence my blog title: Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center
Quoting Jeff9641:
Key West may see a hurricane if IDA doesn't turn NNW. This happens so much this time of year. I've lived in Florida all 30yrs of my life and have seen these storms hook a hard right much sooner than expected. I see a hurricane a Key west and then moving toward Sarasota.

IRENE 1999
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2171. IKE
The Weather Channel headline...

Ida Eyes Gulf Coast.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting 954FtLCane:

OK you need to get something straight... someone that doesn't agree with your thought process is not a troll... dude you just use harsh words and so you get harsh responses.... I actually usually see you as one of the biggest wishcasters on here. I just snicker when I see your post.... but you finally got my goat.... now you're gloating....one of the worst if not the worst wishcaster on here... gloating... you were right once this season... Im sure you'll go out of your way to find a 2nd one.... I apologize but your overblown wishcasting posts finally got to me. And yes IDA will be interesting to watch but I will always trust the NHC, Stormw and 456 over your overblown sensationalized and dangerous so-called forecast

THANK YOU. Could not have said it better!!!
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2169. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was just listening to Steve Lyons and he was saying and pointing toward Alabama and said it was going to the northern gulf and didn't say anything about Florida. He was saying the cooler waters around the coast would take some of the bite out of her. around the coast was 77 degrees. I just thought I would let cha know what he said.

Sheri


I saw that too.

He did seem more concerned about it then I thought he would. He seemed to be focusing on the NE GOM as the bulls-eye, IF it makes landfall.

He also said shear would be a factor as it heads to the NE GOM.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Thanks, Storm!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning, 45mph TS Ida, sorry I just don't buy that one, this imo is at least 60-65mph storm, bordering once again on hurricane status.
TS Warning issued for Grand Cayman at 7 am this morning.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
I was just listening to Steve Lyons and he was saying and pointing toward Alabama and said it was going to the northern gulf and didn't say anything about Florida. He was saying the cooler waters around the coast would take some of the bite out of her. around the coast was 77 degrees. I just thought I would let cha know what he said.

Sheri
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

OK you need to get something straight... someone that doesn't agree with your thought process is not a troll... dude you just use harsh words and so you get harsh responses.... I actually usually see you as one of the biggest wishcasters on here. I just snicker when I see your post.... but you finally got my goat.... now you're gloating....one of the worst if not the worst wishcaster on here... gloating... you were right once this season... Im sure you'll go out of your way to find a 2nd one.... I apologize but your overblown wishcasting posts finally got to me. And yes IDA will be interesting to watch but I will always trust the NHC, Stormw and 456 over your overblown sensationalized and dangerous so-called forecast


Wishcasts do not show evidence, I show evidence in my posts. I'm not gloating, just showing the facts buddy. Potential, notice the word potential, possiblities, I never say it will happen, I use chances because who knows, Ida may just get sheared, maybe this whole Perfect Storm is hype and not gonna happen.. Now surely you don't see a wishcaster say what I just said. It's possible, but could go the other way. It's a wait and see deal.
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Good morning!
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Quoting Marlinzfan:


You got that right but I don't want a hurricane to do it. Please just don't let the storm become a hurricane. That is no fun, without power for days on end.

well at least it'll be cool
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2161. aquak9
g'morning WU-bloggers.

Reed, I've been lurking over the past few days- you and TampaSpin were both looking at the extended possibilites of nastiness.

I had mentioned a possible severe event thru central florida, Tampaspin had concurred.

Mostly wanted to let you know, Reedzone, there's no need to go back on what you had said previously. Timing and positioning will be crucial, but there's no way outta this one:

Someone, somewhere, is gonna get whacked.
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2158. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z SHIPS now up to Cat 1, also a relativly high RI Index:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%)


Hehe... why I am not surprised.
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Quoting Dakster:


When Stormw says he will be right back after putting his shutters up, that's when the "Ahh S!@#" start flying and I start to worry.

Dak where does storm live?
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12Z SHIPS now up to Cat 1, also a relativly high RI Index:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10871
Quoting jipmg:


I hope it draws in an arctic front and pulls it through southern florida LOL I am getting tired of the 80S and 90S..


You got that right but I don't want a hurricane to do it. Please just don't let the storm become a hurricane. That is no fun, without power for days on end.
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2151. Keys99
De-Plane Shall show the status very soon
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2149. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 11 2009110712 BEST 0 174N 841W 45 1000 TS


Pressure down 2 mb's.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting reedzone:


Here's a map I made yesterday concering the potential "Perfect Storm II"
Photobucket

OK you need to get something straight... someone that doesn't agree with your thought process is not a troll... dude you just use harsh words and so you get harsh responses.... I actually usually see you as one of the biggest wishcasters on here. I just snicker when I see your post.... but you finally got my goat.... now you're gloating....one of the worst if not the worst wishcaster on here... gloating... you were right once this season... Im sure you'll go out of your way to find a 2nd one.... I apologize but your overblown wishcasting posts finally got to me. And yes IDA will be interesting to watch but I will always trust the NHC, Stormw and 456 over your overblown sensationalized and dangerous so-called forecast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2147. Dakster
Quoting NOLA2005:
Good Morning StormW, is "Uh oh" in order?


When Stormw says he will be right back after putting his shutters up, that's when the "Ahh S!@#" start flying and I start to worry.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
2146. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 11 2009110712 BEST 0 174N 841W 45 1000 TS


Sure hope that HH lift OFF soon so we can get some validation to those numbers although I'm currently doubting it still that weak.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 11 2009110712 BEST 0 174N 841W 45 1000 TS


Up to 50 mph, down 2 mb to 1000 mb. Wonder what the recon will find.
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Quoting P451:


Well, that is still a ways off, and may not happen. The key to those types of systems is so intricate that even though the players are there, and they have progressed towards such a final outcome, we just don't know if it WILL happen.

But, so far, "we" were right about Ida and "we" were right about the BOC Gale, and "we" were right about 96E injecting energy into the situation.

For some reason the paid experts were clueless.

Our own WU experts were on top of this as were us happy hobbyists.

It is what it is and I said many times it was a highly dynamic setup (and continues to be) and that forecasting errors would be LARGE even just 12 hours out. Well, that has proven to be true, and might continue to be as we go forward.

But, what gets me, is the total lack of mentioning this potential scenario. That is not right. You don't have to say IT WILL HAPPEN, but, you have a duty as a paid meteorologist to at least MENTION the possibility.

Nobody did. Not even the great "CAT 5" Bastardi mentioned the possibility of explosive development and interaction with 96E and the BOC Gale.

So, I mean, what gives? Why not?

I don't like it....and now we have a serious situation on our hands.

Well, those who downplayed it:

*no mention of BOC gale
*no mention of potential extratropical superstorm (they mentioned extratropical but acted like it'd be a rain shower)
*downplayed IDA to only be a 45kt TS that would get ripped apart.

Need to wake up today and do their job to INFORM the public that a serious situation is unfolding.

/rant



Amen!
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2141. centex
Good morning Ida
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But Reedzone, my local met said that low from Mexico in the Gulf right now would shear apart Ida...so how would it make it a perfect storm?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.