Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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2240. bjdsrq
Quoting Ameister12:
Ever sense I woke up this morning I noticed this circle where the strongest convection is and it continues to grow.
BR


I love those early morning and late day vis pics that show the shadows of the various cloud tops. Give's a nice 3D perspective doesn't it?

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Ida looks like a very small and compact storm;
Charlie & Andrew were both small in size storms, thank goodness.
We do not need some monster storms out there.

Hope we get another update before 1 pm.

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2238. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Anyone else notice the models are keeping the storm closer to the gulf coast each run now? The still have the nice candy cane hook but so much closer to the coast now. Should be interesting. Tomorrow afternoon we will know a lot.


I noticed it when I woke up at 3 am and turn on my computer.

See what the 12Z runs show. If their similar to the 6Z, then someone may be getting a land falling TS or cane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Just me...I put more faith in the GFS vs. the CMC.

Normally I would agree with you but the GFS hasnt been close yet with this one.
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Anyone else notice the models are keeping the storm closer to the gulf coast each run now? The still have the nice candy cane hook but so much closer to the coast now. Should be interesting. Tomorrow afternoon we will know a lot.
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East End, Grand Cayman is POURING!
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Ever sense I woke up this morning I noticed this circle where the strongest convection is and it continues to grow.

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2233. bjdsrq
Quoting StormW:
Only thing I can think of right now is...NHC must be going with the CMC wind shear forecast. Let's hope it's right.BR


I thought the CMC was just for entertainment purposes.

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2232. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Only thing I can think of right now is...NHC must be going with the CMC wind shear forecast. Let's hope it's right.

CMC


GFS


Just me...I put more faith in the GFS vs. the CMC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
There is no eye yet and be patient in upping the winds. They will wait for the recon to fly before they make a no kidding call. You all are arguing over 5-10kts which still keeps it a TS. They just want more data before people freak
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Quoting P451:



Just a gale center?

Way to downplay while mentioning the word GALE at the same time.

And when Ida becomes a Hurricane later today. She's just a hurricane with some rain, right?


I'm out of here. Seems the "nothing to see here Hurricane season is over like I told you all weeks ago" crowd has awaken.

Let them have their fun.


Check in with your thoughts later...some of us appreciate all opinions. ;)
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2226. bjdsrq
Quoting P451:



Just a gale center?

Way to downplay while mentioning the word GALE at the same time.

And when Ida becomes a Hurricane later today. She's just a hurricane with some rain, right?


I'm out of here. Seems the "nothing to see here Hurricane season is over like I told you all weeks ago" crowd has awaken.

Let them have their fun.


"Rapid intensification" LOL... adios dude.
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2225. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Why does Ida look so flat on the N side ? Makes me wonder if something is pushing her back ? Comment appreciated. TIA


Not quite... look at the upper level outflow you'll notice that it has a good fanning in all quadrants, except for the N where is more ragged... that is where most of the shear lies and pretty much retreating to... but is more due to some shear to the N of it.
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Quoting IKE:


Pretty good consensus.

Look for a track change on the next advisory from the NHC.

Trough coming in has slowed down 12-24 hours from previous forecasts.

Ida may in fact make it all the way to the northern gulf coast.



Looks like that "hook" in the northern GOM is no longer being shown by many models. May be confirmed on the 12Z runs which will have a lot more upper air data.

Also beginning to wonder if NHC rescheduled Recon. Based on the origional schedule they should be in the air already.
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2223. bjdsrq
First few frames of the Ida vis showing some nice outflow, even to the SW where the 'shear' is supposedly to start coming in.

Wouldn't be suprised to see a low-end Cat 1 before she starts heading slowly to the grave.
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If that is an eye that has developed, it would be the first time I have ever seen a visible one on a 45mph Tropical Storm.
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2207. Well, that's an Oh, Sh**, I'm guessing.
Have the three models going into the Atlantic been any good this year? I've been under the impression that the ECMWF and the UK model have been the best this year -- but I'm still very much a novice. TIA.

Modified: Make that four, oh heck, several models going into Atlantic.
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ok, spoken from a downcaster, IDA will become a Hurricane again (IMO = my escape in case I'm wrong).... it just all looks too good.
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Why does Ida look so flat on the N side ? Makes me wonder if something is pushing her back ? Comment appreciated. TIA
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
2214. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Pretty good consensus.

Look for a track change on the next advisory from the NHC.

Trough coming in has slowed down 12-24 hours from previous forecasts.

Ida may in fact make it all the way to the northern gulf coast.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Is that an eye I see on Ida?
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never mind
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2009 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 17:26:37 N Lon : 84:12:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.1 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

In fairness - the ADT isn't being very nice to Ida
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Quoting StormW:
Someone feel like sending a WU email. I think mine is broken.

Good morning. Sent per your request.
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oh for god sake NHC - gets some brains and up to 50kt.

Only thing not going for ida - is her poor banding.
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2203. bjdsrq
Quoting P451:
BOC disturbance starting to rapidly intensify IMO



LOL.... negative that.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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2201. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:
The Weather Channel headline...

Ida Eyes Gulf Coast.


More than likely this now 5 day position is going to change quite a bit come monday. It might not make it to any US coast as more than blob of rain.
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Quoting StormW:


Kinda cool here too...58F.

Haven't looked at her yet, Sherri. Takes a little for me to get motivated on Sat., as I usually don't forecast on the weekend. But, we have a special case here I guess.


I know what cha mean. I have my cup of coffee in front of me, going for the 3rd one. Gotta go and take pictures in a little while of 2 different families for the holiday. Then go to weigh in, hubby is in the city classic. I really hope he does good. The water is really high down here all out in the woods. Well I don't want get to off the subject and get in trouble. This Ida thing and the perfect storm just makes me think. Have we ever had a storm like this in the GOM?

sheri
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2111. reedzone 12:28 PM GMT on November 07, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
notice alot of local forecasters and bloggers are downplaying idas threat. hope they all dont get a pie in their face


They don't understand that all of this energy could collide into one, making a perfect storm. They don't seem to take that potential threat seriously, even Weather456 and StormW thinks it's possible.
Action: Quote | Ignore User

If Stormw $ 456 both are thinking on Perfect Storm II,ITS CAUSE THERE ARE 90% CHANCES THAT CAN HAPPENS
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2197. Ossqss
Any thoughts?

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I'm no Met nor am I part of the NHC, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at a satellite and figure out that Ida is no longer a 45mph tropical storm. Doesn't look like shear is affecting it at all and the satellite presentation has improved dramatically in the last 3-4 hours. If this continues, we may have a cane by this afternoon. I would guess it already a strong TS.
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Quoting P451:


Absolutely no way is she just a 45mph TS. No way. The HH's are going to find a much stronger storm.

What is going on at the NHC is practically negligent. Yet, they've been a curious bunch all year so I'm not surprised.

They're acting like an NBA player who just got a huge contract he didn't deserve and now doesn't have to try anymore.

*knicks fan here, please shoot me*


Funny you should say that. When Ida came off shore, some of us said that she was going to go from a depression to a 45-50 mph Tropical Storm, but by 10pm it stayed a depression.

But it's just some peoples theory.
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Quoting centralflaman:


Actually the NHC has done very well this year. Everyone needs to relax and wait for the HH to get in there and see what is going on. IDA looks great this morning but no one knows what is going to happen when it gets to the gulf. That is when the forecast is going to get complicated. There is stil a chance for every scenario to happen. To early to be declaring any one idea.

The nhc has been more conservative than Rush Limbuagh at the pharmacy....
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Link
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.