Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Here we go...new models showing farther north again and even possible landfall in the Gulf States. Time to start rethinking your forecasts haha.
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2388. 786
the joys of living in Cayman, where systems tend to develop around us, always last minute.

Although we are getting good rain and decent gusts, the pressure here is rising, in fact the barometers say 1013 and rising:-
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I would imagine that Ida would track a little to east of the current forecast points if she is really able to show some improvement and intensification over the next 24 hours so the western tip of Cuba may be impacted and she might not thread the needle though the Yucatan channel; my point is that it may be too early to rule out a possible Florida impact which would include the south westerm part of the peninsula, particularly, if she slows down a bit in the short term.
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2384. bjdsrq
So is NOAA or AF recon going to check this out or what?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Best Case Snerio:

Florida Straits
.

Worst Case Snerio:

Tampa,FL , NOLA


Or randomly dissipate.
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Quoting IKE:


Look for a lot of rain. That is almost a certainty.

Look for winds to be breezy and increasing as we approach the first of the week. Winds could be more significant. Wait and see.

Some models show a landfall in the central gulf coast. Some in the eastern gulf coast. Some come close and never make landfall.

See if the 12Z runs are similar to what the 00Z and 6Z runs said. They may change again.


Ike, Thanks for the answers. Have a good day. gone back to lurking.

Sheri
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2381. divdog
Quoting Acemmett90:

no storm is the same you you never know what thye are capible of until you get hit by it
I'm certainly not worried about this one !!
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2379. divdog
Quoting hunkerdown:
then you should know its probably not at 45mph and forecasts and prejected strengths do change...
Splitting hairs on this one.. the trend will be down for strength if it ever makes it to a land mass intact.
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Hello there my fellow bloggers! Long time no see.
Nothing like tracking a storm in November!?!?!?! LOL... This is one of the craziest seasons for sure.
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2373. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:
src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200911_model.gif"


I'm hoping for the GFDL to play out if just for it's weirdness. Imagine ultimately hitting Key West after staring down the northeast gulf coast. Plus it gives me some decent rain.
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There is a trough extending from Northern Mexico to the Eastern Pacific (yellow dashed line). You can see the associated storm system moving east over Mexico on the WV link StormW provided. The Bay of Campeche system is located in the exit region, full of shear and divergence aloft - one thing that makes it a hybrid system.

Ida is smack in the middle of the trough and a ridge over the Central Caribbean, the same ridge that has been influencing Ida since it was 97L.

Now the speed of the environmental steering that Ida has entered is 5 knots, causing her to slow and organize rapidly. She is also located in the exit region of the ridge, which is also beneficial for outflow.

This implies Ida will continue northwest for short time, then turn north, supporting StormW findings and because she has slowed, she will likely turn further south than previously thought.



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2370. IKE
Quoting Seflhurricane:
is it me or am i seeing an eye trying to form on the Visble loop images ???


I see it too on the 1345UTC visible.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
National weather service is saying IDA is approaching hurricane strength and that an eye is forming. 10am advisory might have winds of 60 or 70mph.


Can you provide a link please?
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is it me or am i seeing an eye trying to form on the Visble loop images ???
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
2364. IKE
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2363. WxLogic
Quoting TomSal:
WxLogic: What does a 850MB VORT represent? Is it speed, rain, etc? Thanks.


It's represents the amount of vorticity in the atmosphere or in other words turning. So the yellow to red area(s) will represent high counterclockwise turning in the northern hemisphere which will translate to area(s) of low pressure(s).
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Quoting divdog:
been thru a ton . I know exactly what they are capable of.
then you should know its probably not at 45mph and forecasts and prejected strengths do change...
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2361. Detrina
Quoting StormW:


Won't know until I get some analysis done.

I have the same offer from yesterday for whoever is interested...I had to start a 3rd email account to handle more clients. I have room left, for about 70-80 folks...if you would like to receive the same forecasts I put on here, which includes color graphics and such, send me an email, with a first name at least, to kainawalsh@yahoo.com (kaina, named after our beagle).



OMG you have a beagle too? we have 2! they have to get together sometime for a playdate at the park:)

thx for the quick add to the forecast list!
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Morning everyone.....I said a midnite Hurricane in 12-18hrs......that would be between noon and 6pm....i think it might be dam close.
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2359. bjdsrq
Quoting Chicklit:
I see Ida is exhibiting the 'tri-blob effect.'BR


"Tri-blob". I don't know if that is a offical technical meteorological term, but I like it nonetheless. :-)
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2358. bjdsrq
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


You reported him/her for defending his/her opinion?


Not at all. More for continuous, drawn out whining, and blantant contradictory posts (aka lying.)
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2357. divdog
Quoting leftovers:
its a cyclone never know what they can dish out
been thru a ton . I know exactly what they are capable of.
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2356. TomSal
Quoting WxLogic:
Look at this 850MB VORT loop (Notice how the life of the E PAC disturbance S of Honduras) is being sucked out.
WxLogic: What does a 850MB VORT represent? Is it speed, rain, etc? Thanks.
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I see Ida is exhibiting the 'tri-blob effect.'

Loop
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Ida looks much better than yesterday, maybe it'll regain the good banding it had before later today.
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storm/weather- if IDAs movement to the due north continues today whould there in your opinion be a shift to the right of the forecast track i think IDA is going to come closer than anticipated to the western tip of cuba than the yucatan peninsula
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
2350. bjdsrq
Quoting StormW:
em


Nice and symetrical for a '45-knot' TS. '45-knot' is only the 'offical' word obviously. I'm guessing it's already 60 knots.
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Good Morning. Witnessing some history here, as noted by Dr. M. yesterday, with a November TS in an El Nino year going into the Gulf. Tropics always full of surprises and hope it brings some beneficial rain to someone down the road.
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here is a link to some private local weather stations in the caymans.
Link
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Jeff, the 'home-alone' kid obviously got the password to the computer and is wreaking havoc here. I've taken liberal advantage of the 'report to admin' and the 'hide' features accordingly.


Don't diss home-alone kids. I'm one of them at the moment.

Idas nearly there now.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Jeff, the 'home-alone' kid obviously got the password to the computer and is wreaking havoc here. I've taken liberal advantage of the 'report to admin' and the 'hide' features accordingly.


You reported him/her for defending his/her opinion?
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Your thoughts please.

For all...IDA is stalling, and if I'm correct, based on the following loop, she should pick up on a short NW track, slowly in a few hours, then start a turn to the north.

Go here, click WATER VAPOR...8 IMAGE ANIMATION, then go to the upper right and click enhancements, and use GOES WATER VAPOR ENHANCEMENT.

SSEC


Now I want to make sure I understand....

the N turn comes as the system moving over Mexico starts to influence Ida environment?
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Quoting Weather456:


The deep layer flow does not diver much from the shallow layer over the next couple of days. But

Because the area between the model consensus and western Cuba is small, a small change in intensity, affecting a small change in track could easily result in Ida nearer to the tip of Cuba.
thanks weather is there still a good possibility of Ida making a close approach to the lower florida keys and the SW Florida coast
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.