Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Officially confused..2 areas? Ida is one; the other?
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Anxiously awaiting the Stormno/Tacoman Crow report. Itshould be a good one!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
IDA is getting ready to moving back into the carribean she is just about on the coast and way to the right of the next forecast point
It looks to me like she is slowly inching eastward but that is just my opinion.
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Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Preparation

Great minds think alike, Patrap (okay put a ? after my mind.) I see I posted Caymen Is. Emerg. site the same time you posted this.

I was just on the Florida disaster site, and it is incredible. There are at least two pages of phone numbers and emerg. info for every section of Florida.
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IDA is getting ready to moving back into the carribean she is just about on the coast and way to the right of the next forecast point
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
"Ida entry" outdated on the Caymen's emergency mngmnt. site...but there's some cool webcams under "Resources."

Caymen.Prepared.ky

Link
Thanks.
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Hurricane Preparation
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"Ida entry" outdated on the Caymen's emergency mngmnt. site...but there's some cool webcams under "Resources."

Caymen.Prepared.ky

Link
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Quoting StormW:


No...there's ONLY ONE StormW.

Got that right! Broke the mold, huh Storm?
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Quoting StormW:


No...there's ONLY ONE StormW.


Got that right lol
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Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am.


Are you StormW's twin?
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Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am.


:)
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Which one? OK.. please explain.
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Quoting StormW:


Haven't seen him.

When you see him please ask him for his update please. LOL
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Quoting StormW:


Haven't seen him.


Me either.
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Tracking Information from the NHC

NHC Advisory : 09
Name : IDA
Type : TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Position : 15.0, -84
Heading (degrees) : 360
Motion Speed (kts) : 6
Central Pressure (mb) : 1007
Maximum Sustained Winds (kts) : 30
Maximum Wind Gusts (kts) : 40
Valid time : 15:00:00 GMT, November 06, 2009

Note: To convert wind speeds to MPH, multiply knots by 1.15 (i.e. add 15%)



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why is it being called sub tropical after... when it's going to be " " in the area of the gulf and florida?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Just try google and I'm sure more than enough info will pop up.


Yes...but I was tring to get you to do it and post it for the benefit of the blog. History is a great teacher. I have to go on a service call now (power fluctuations), but maybe I'll post it later if someone else hasn't already.
Have a wonderful day everyone...
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The sub tropical system Will,Impact a number of states..

Ida's future is uncertain at Best,but she will have a window to intensify,but after Sunday,..things change rapidly upstairs as of now.

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...DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

THE NAM KEEPS THE LID ON ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION...WHILE THE 00Z/06 ECMWF DEVELOPS A SMALL...INTENSE
LOW...AND SENDS IT INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LIKE THE OLD EC...THE GFS ALSO CARRIES A LOW
NORTHWARD...BUT HOOKS IT MORE SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE
BROADER CIRCULATION OF IDA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3.
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Quoting mossyhead:
That is the same possibility that Dr. Masters gave on his new blog.


This is why I asked the question before. I am NOT a meterologist but our late season experiences show that a lot of the storms take more than southen "jogs". Thanks for all the great information! Just a weather lover so won't say anymore...
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local New Orleans mets are saying that the winds in the GOM will be "hostile" and the water much cooler. The are predicting that the strong cold front will either stall it out or push it far east, and doubt it will be hurricane status if it even makes it to land...
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Pat is right
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Quoting stormsurge39:
looks like a split


Thats the uncertainty showing up in that run.

First we have to deal with the STS,then IDa..the first may be the story,not the second.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Link me, baby! Show us the works...


Just try google and I'm sure more than enough info will pop up.
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Station 42055 (LLNR 1101) - Bay of Campeche

Conditions at 42055 as of
(9:50 am CST)
1550 GMT on 11/06/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )

5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts

5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.5 ft

5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec


5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.07 in


5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure
Tendency (PTDY): 0.05 in ( Rising )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.4 F

5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.0 F
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


conservative approach they have been taking all season long

Has to be without a doubt the worst year for the NHC thus far, they have been way off on many things this season


Earlier even Dr. Masters commented on how one of the models (the CMC I think) was beating the track accuracy of the NHC forecasts. Usually the NHC beats all of the models.

It has been a really confusing year for all. I can rememebr several storms that confounded "us" all, either by blowing up into a Major Hurricane or falling apart for no reason - not to mention our own track error problems. Yes, some here have been better than others and I am generalizing, so please don't take offense.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


1993


Link me, baby! Show us the works...
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It s going to Tampa just how big it is when it gets there is the rub! Huh tspin?
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Both Systems are now in the GOES-12 GOM IR Loop Frame.

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Quoting kmanislander:


You are correct but no two years will ever be the same. I posted earlier what my expectations are regarding reintensification.
And I hope you are right. Thanks
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Ida might move NE then E and then S then SW and W, creating a loop.
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graceville chipley area
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Remember the doc gave a 50% chance of the storm hitting the US not insignificant. He like everyone else is not clear about the storms strength. Remember he said he would be back if something warrants. I find that interesting because he is directly discussing the intensity of the storm without hyping it.
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Has StormW been on today with an update? I'd like to read his take.
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Quoting Patrap:

IDA 12Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

looks like a split
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Quoting mikatnight:
Does anyone know of an historical GOM "perfect storm" such as W456 mentions that struck the US? I believe there is some confusion as to what to expect from such a system hitting the coast as well as inland. Also, how widespread?


1993
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Tropical storm warnings were somewhat short-fused in the Cayman Islands, where they were issued about 6-12 hours before the closest approach of the center. This was due mainly to the somewhat earlier than expected northeastward turn. However, a tropical storm watch was issued for Grand Cayman Island about 42 hours before the closest approach of the center. Passed 165 miles west of us and caused $28 million in damages. Should I be reassured about Ida. I don't think so. As I said Michelle was a depression when she crossed Nic/Hond. too.
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taking a break now
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.