Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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not at all.
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Hold me back rare
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What is the NHC seeing taking it NNW still? Unless I'm a little slow, which is entirely possible, this thing is and has been moving North or slightly East of North (1-5 degrees ish) for a couple of hours now.
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Quoting StormW:
Not good if this pans out:







Sorry for my ignorance Storm...but you explain why?
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Quoting P451:


My credentials are of no consequence. Several people chimed in with the same valid concerns. One user suggested since it is such a dynamic setup that maybe he didn't want to speak on it this early. So honestly, let's relax with the "well he has a masters, you dont, so he's right " type stuff. It has no merit.

Meanwhile, yes, if this system goes extratropical, and especially if it hooks up with the system in the BOC, which is going to absorb 96E, and everything hooks up with the front? Yes, we could a serious severe weather outbreak across Florida.

Far too early to say, but, it remains a strong possibility.

With such a complex and dynamic setup, with so many features, any forecast today probably has a VERY low confidence.

We need to see this situation evolve further before we can say that this will certainly happen:

My crude mock of what could potentially evolve:



Well I just took it to heart your seeming dissing of Dr. Masters on his own blog. I was very put off by that.

So would the whole state of Florida be under the gun or would this STS mega storm be confined to one circulation or would it be elongated with intensity near the same in the whole area of disturbed weather ?
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extra tropical at 120 hours is a real possibility
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Quoting P451:


My credentials are of no consequence. Several people chimed in with the same valid concerns. One user suggested since it is such a dynamic setup that maybe he didn't want to speak on it this early. So honestly, let's relax with the "well he has a masters, you dont, so he's right " type stuff. It has no merit.

Meanwhile, yes, if this system goes extratropical, and especially if it hooks up with the system in the BOC, which is going to absorb 96E, and everything hooks up with the front? Yes, we could a serious severe weather outbreak across Florida.

Far too early to say, but, it remains a strong possibility.

With such a complex and dynamic setup, with so many features, any forecast today probably has a VERY low confidence.

We need to see this situation evolve further before we can say that this will certainly happen:

My crude mock of what could potentially evolve:



Nice answer to a lame question and a very cool graphic.
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DO YOU GUYS THINK IDA WILL JUST CONTINUE STRIGHT NIRTH OR SHE WILL BEND TO THE LEFT A LITTLE? SHE LOOK SLIKE SHE HAS GOOD MOMENTUM NORTH AND EVEN A TAD EAST OF NORTH.
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Quoting presslord:
Please remember: failure to cough it up for the Portlight/WU Honor Walk will result in you all being subjected to a photograph of me in a thong!!! Stop what you're doing...close your eyes...and picture it...

OK...I can assure you...the reality of it will be far worse than what your minds' eye can conjure...govern yourselves accordingly...


OMG...I think I'm scarred! (just kidding)
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Pat - Jesuit or BM Alum???
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P451

Check out this IR loop from ColoState,

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL112009&sta rting_image=2009AL11_4KMIRIMG_200908211130.GIF


Place your mouse cursor on the "Set Frame" slider up to the right, and move it back and forth to see where the center of spin is.
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Please remember: failure to cough it up for the Portlight/WU Honor Walk will result in you all being subjected to a photograph of me in a thong!!! Stop what you're doing...close your eyes...and picture it...

OK...I can assure you...the reality of it will be far worse than what your minds' eye can conjure...govern yourselves accordingly...
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Right on the coast
Current Weather Conditions:
Puerto Lempira, Honduras
(MHPL) 15-13N 083-48W 13M

Conditions at

2009.11.06 1700 UTC
Wind Calm
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob MHPL 061700Z 00000KT 9999 BKN015 BKN080 25/24 Q1012 RERA PCPN SW W HZ
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
275. XL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sounds good and as nice as it might be to meet some of you guys I really hope it is not necessary.


Ditto
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Pat has a need for another cup of coffee right now..

And Tonight Jesuit and Brother Martin play here to close out the reg season.

So I need to squeeze 10-11 more hours of good weather in for the game tonight.


NWS Slidell Discussion




Regarding coastal flooding...confidence remains high that coastal
flooding of a moderate magnitude will result with some minor
inundation possible Saturday...increasing in depth with each
subsequent tide cycle Sunday through Tuesday. Will upgrade to
coastal Flood Watch with mention of 1 foot above normal
Saturday...2-3 feet above normal Sunday...3 feet above normal Monday
and possibly 4 feet above normal Tuesday morning before improving as
strong offshore flow onsets throughout the day Tuesday. A coastal
Flood Warning appears warranted at some point for Sunday and
Monday...which may be issued Saturday morning. 24/rr
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Quoting Patrap:
One other bolt in the forecast is that if Ida spins up fast like the other day,she may accelerate in forward speed some.
She looks to be poised to make a run at the channel or western Cuba.

Strap in Folks,..looks to plenty to yak about real soon.
Then there's the BOC as well.
everything lining up timing is the key at the moment ida looks to start entering s nw carb near 15.9 84 5 after sunset with maximum feeding potenial frow warm waters the cycle is about poised to come to its peak into the next 12 hrs
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Quoting presslord:
We're prepared to deploy feeding and relief teams to Caymans of Gulf Coast if/as necessary....Pat has his bags packed...
Link
Sounds good and as nice as it might be to meet some of you guys I really hope it is not necessary.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
sorry
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Quoting Marlinzfan:


lets see Dr. Master's has a doctorate in meterorolgy and you have ????

Is this to be more of a threat for tornados if it becomes extra-tropical or can it have sustained winds as well ?


You do not need a degree in meteorology...to see some fallaciousness to some updates by the doc and other mets...not saying its bad Doc worshipers...it is what it is...and they will be taking broad swaths until the storm(s) are closer and more data becomes available
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We're prepared to deploy feeding and relief teams to Caymans of Gulf Coast if/as necessary....Pat has his bags packed...
Link
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One other bolt in the forecast is that if Ida spins up fast like the other day,she may accelerate in forward speed some.
She looks to be poised to make a run at the channel or western Cuba.

Strap in Folks,..looks to plenty to yak about real soon.
Then there's the BOC as well.
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Ida is clearly taking advantage of being so near water. Strong bands which have been helping her to maintain such a strong circulation over land are now helping to fill in Ida's western semi-circle. Look at the Link and you'll see how evident it is. Re-formation of the center is always a possibility with cyclones so near water.
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IDA Floater - Infrared Channel 2 Loop

Looking closely at the IR2 loop,..the coc still looks vigorous as it slides N toward reemergence.
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The axis for any circ,the present one or the newer one that may form looks smack on 85W
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Selfhurricane I think your very close on the position I'd say about 83.6w just east on nhc position.A lot of time when these systems come off the coast slowly that from new centers a little away from projected point. I think its just a random thing depending on where the most vigorous storms form.
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Quoting Patrap:
Ida may,..and I stress may,.form a newer CoC this afternoon in the convection north of her present CoC.
Which by the looks of it is a little further east. Correct me if I am wrong as it is just my opinion. Thanks
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
Quoting StormW:


Careful, the crow is his reconaissance aircraft.
Was that his aluminum foil aircraft that he launched with the supposed child in it from Colorado(lol)
Quoting StormW:


Careful, the crow is his reconaissance aircraft.
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Ida may,..and I stress may,.form a newer CoC this afternoon in the convection north of her present CoC.
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From the NWS Houston/Galveston

The STS Graphically

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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


LMAO!!!! I bet your right!
Wouldn't surprise me but I bet StormW2 won't be able to spell as good as the original.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399


Look at the flare up just to the north of the coc.
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Quoting P451:
Why wasn't the BOC gale mentioned - nor the chance that the merging of several systems (96E, Gale, Ida, Front) could produce a very large extratropical storm?

It is almost as if there's no concern at all here. That Ida will just be a weak and disorganized TS that may bring some rain to Florida.

So the BOC Gale just goes poof? The front won't absorb or deflect Ida to the East or North but rather force it back South?

I'm confused.... He also says it's a disorganized system but says it has a vigorous circulation. Isn't that a contradiction somewhat?

Not Dr. Masters' best update. Maybe he's busy or in a hurry this AM.

Just didn't seem to cover all bases and seems to think it won't be much to worry about.

I disagree. There is a lot going on out there that shouldn't be so readily discounted.

I guess we'll see how Ida reacts this afternoon to emerging into the NW Caribbean.



lets see Dr. Master's has a doctorate in meterorolgy and you have ????

Is this to be more of a threat for tornados if it becomes extra-tropical or can it have sustained winds as well ?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Now that you say that I bet a StormW2 pops up. LOL


LMAO!!!! I bet your right!
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Quoting foggymyst:
geez! and the thinking on these 2 areas?


You have the STS and Ida as well as another little one east of IDA. All of these are mentioned by Storm and Patrap. Patrap just posted a link above to the site where you can see them.
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Quoting StormW:


No...there's ONLY ONE StormW.


Now that you say that I bet a StormW2 pops up. LOL
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Quoting rareaire:
It s going to Tampa just how big it is when it gets there is the rub! Huh tspin?


I think you are correct.
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7 mph movement is...
IDAsterdly SLOW

16:15 UTC (11:15 Eastern)



COC (yellow dot) is right on 15 N
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geez! and the thinking on these 2 areas?
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Both Systems are now in the GOES-12 GOM IR Loop Frame.

The Sub tropical system,in the Bay Of Campeche.

And Ida in the Western Caribbean.


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Quoting foggymyst:
Officially confused..2 areas? Ida is one; the other?
GOM
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TD Ida's circulation is becoming oblong. Good for her that she is about to move offshore.
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once IDA hits water all the thunderstorms to its north should begin to wrap around and slowing organize
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
IDA Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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StormW, as mentioned earlier, your witty comments and smiling face on your avatar are a perfect combination. Keep it up! Back to lurkin' instead of workin'...
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Officially confused..2 areas? Ida is one; the other?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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