Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricane23:
should be back over water soon...
at the paling of the day night time entry
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Quoting IKE:


Another gun incident.

Crazy people in this world!


Don't blame the gun! It did what the idiot holding it told it to do!!
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Press the same Government that refused help from anyone in 2004 after Ivan & tried to cover up the destruction is back in power now, in fact today is the day our new Constitution came into effect and the new leader is our first Premier as of today which is also a public holiday here due to its historic nature, so don't set your heart on it but thanks all the same :)
If we were to need help and it was refused again they might find it a lot different than 2004. People are fed up now with this government already.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8267
As of 1pm

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR
15.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS MOVING NORTH 6
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
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should be back over water soon...
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334. IKE
12Z HWRF brings it eerily close to the Florida panhandle as a hurricane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Can I use the NHC clock at quitting time.. Just a thought. Now back to our regularly scheduled program. Don't get mad at me for being off topic. Just had a good lunch with my VP, no pink slip. I am quite happy.
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I am not too good foercasting storms;however,I see a category 2 or 3 hurricaine on the way,this depression is getting stronger ny the minute,and inspite of all the shear,it can very well become a monster;furthermore,I bolive south florida has a 50% chance of getting a direct hit,again this is my personal opinion...
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FLWeatherfreak... Hope your weather is better than your news... "Officials are reporting at least two people are dead and eight others were wounded in a downtown sky-rise shooting in Orlando."
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Quoting ElConando:


Its 8 shot not dead.
Oh yes, My mistake.
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That convention to IDA NW wants to wrap around center real fast it looks like. Will be interesting
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afternoon storm long night ahead brother
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Link
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Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

Just wondering how we get the 1PM outlook before 1PM


the same reason the NHC issues theirs early? lol idk
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324. IKE
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
8 dead in Orlando shooting.


Another gun incident.

Crazy people in this world!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
She's wasting no time with re-org. It already looks east of forecast track. 12Z GFDL just out and puts it farther west, which is questionable since no model has nailed it yet for more than 12 hours out.
Member Since: July 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS NOVEMBER 06, 2009 ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST

Just wondering how we get the 1PM outlook before 1PM
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
8 dead in Orlando shooting.


Its 8 shot not dead.
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Quoting StormW:
Not good if this pans out:







How shear forecasts can change eh?
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8 dead in Orlando shooting.
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Quoting sarahjola:
i don't buy the eastern turn once it gets in the gulf. i also don't buy the cat. 3 scenario. i am a betting girl from new orleans and we seem to be blessed right now with our saints, so i bet that this storm gets to cat.1 and it makes landfall on the miss/la coast. or then again maybe the cold front coming in will turn it south and no one will get it. either way i think we will get sever weather from this. all of us on the coast will feel it. what do you all think?


you live in NO, nuff said lol
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Quoting 789:
put another quater in that pony ! only kidding whats your take on ida this afternoon ?


LOL

well,

I'm really not sure,

I was thinking that when it reemerges over water, that it may get back up to hurricane strength as it nears Cuba and the Yucatan, then head east towards Florida, somewhere north of Tampa as a weak hurricane or decent TS. Just my opinion, I dont anticipate a stronger storm due to cooler SST's the farther north it goes.
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Quoting rareaire:
I MISS THE STOOPID CIRCLE!!!


You are in it right now
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i don't buy the eastern turn once it gets in the gulf. i also don't buy the cat. 3 scenario. i am a betting girl from new orleans and we seem to be blessed right now with our saints, so i bet that this storm gets to cat.1 and it makes landfall on the miss/la coast. or then again maybe the cold front coming in will turn it south and no one will get it. either way i think we will get sever weather from this. all of us on the coast will feel it. what do you all think?
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I MISS THE STOOPID CIRCLE!!!
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Just another thing to keep in mind and perspective. The models 5 days out are usually off pretty much. The timing of the front is uncertain and this in recent history has had such a drastic affect on the steering currents for almost every recent GOM storm. It almost never turns out like we think 5 days out.
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311. 789
Quoting tornadodude:
good afternoon all

put another quater in that pony ! only kidding whats your take on ida this afternoon ?
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Quoting rareaire:
Mets make me laugh sometimes. thats funny! If it widens then its going to bring winds to Alabama as well, lol!


lol...prognosticate all you want...the real question is when the hell will I get to go duck hunting?...Rare...THATS the question...
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12z GFDL phase...

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Quoting SSideBrac:


We would be lucky to get an official "Alert" in Cayman Islands - normally "official advice" seems to lurch straight into "Watch".
Public holiday here today - wonder whether - nope I will not say it!
Is that why im having trouble finding out anything about the storm, its like they dont won't you to know anything about the storm.I guess because im a tourest, I got stuck in the key when Rita hit and lost my car due to Floods.
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Im staying on seven mile beach Do I have anything to worry about I leave Sunday to go back to N.C.


Jdcweatherky - if u are in a Hotel they should provide advice/assistance as appropriate.
U may suffer flight delays on Sunday depending on what transpires with IDA - hoping for the best, then the worst u may experince is a bumpy departure climb out.
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Quoting stormhank:
I listened to local met. he said if ida becomes extra tropical that could widened the wind field would that bring high winds to panhandle area of Fla???
Mets make me laugh sometimes. thats funny! If it widens then its going to bring winds to Alabama as well, lol!
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Storm W, is there any possibility of you mentioning Ida in relation to Belize? (I know we will not likely get a direct hit but I also know things may look different after she emerges regarding rainfall munbers etc.) U have no idea how little our met service shares in times like these.
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good afternoon all

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I listened to local met. he said if ida becomes extra tropical that could widened the wind field would that bring high winds to panhandle area of Fla???
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
thanks Storm & Hurrican King:)


You're welcome.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
"Ida entry" outdated on the Caymen's emergency mngmnt. site...but there's some cool webcams under "Resources."

Caymen.Prepared.ky

Link


We would be lucky to get an official "Alert" in Cayman Islands - normally "official advice" seems to lurch straight into "Watch".
Public holiday here today - wonder whether - nope I will not say it!
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12z GFDL trys to bring it in close to lake-o
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Quoting Keys99:
Off Topic

Another Mass shooting in Orlando this time at the Gateway center going on now


just hearing about it on the radio now.
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Off Topic

Another Mass shooting in Orlando this time at the Gateway center going on now
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Quoting presslord:
We're prepared to deploy feeding and relief teams to Caymans of Gulf Coast if/as necessary....Pat has his bags packed...
Link

Press the same Government that refused help from anyone in 2004 after Ivan & tried to cover up the destruction is back in power now, in fact today is the day our new Constitution came into effect and the new leader is our first Premier as of today which is also a public holiday here due to its historic nature, so don't set your heart on it but thanks all the same :)
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7665
thanks Storm & Hurrican King:)
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How is the update coming along Storm? I am turning blue holding my breath!
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Sorry for my ignorance Storm...but you explain why?


A anticyclone builds into the gulf and starts causing the shear to drop in the storms path. Stil shear in the west guld and along the coast but slowly dropping.
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hubby is on the rig... watching and waiting....
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not at all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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