Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Some Updated 12z models..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
389. unf97
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Is anyone thinking that the mess in the Gulf is beginning to develop? There is very good upper level divergence over the system and a dry slot looks like it is trying to develop as well. What do y'all think?

Click the image for a loop
Click on the image to view a loop.


Yes, the system in the BOC is slowly developing indeed.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I am beginning to see an increase in convection near the center


Thank you the center is definitly relocating itself very close to that convection there. No on seems to see this though. it is moving off the coast into that convection now. We are on our way to a strenghting storm.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting SSideBrac:


Tourists will be evacuated unless they elect to stay - if this happens, my advice to any tourist is go! We love u dearly but, frankly, most of u get in the way during a Recovery!

Smile wryly at other comment regarding locals - I have been in "correspondence" with clients since Tues AM regarding what was then possibly a potential, future threat to Cayman Islands. Have always thought that Private Sector in CI is way ahead of Govt when these events rear their ugly heads.

That's why even though I am a civil servant I go elsewhere for my information thereby being more prepared then they are. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
385. P451
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Is anyone thinking that the mess in the Gulf is beginning to develop? There is very good upper level divergence over the system and a dry slot looks like it is trying to develop as well. What do y'all think?

Click the image for a loop
Click on the image to view a loop.


Earlier this morning, in the SW'most part of the BOC, I thought I saw something starting to twist up.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting Jeff9641:
I can't believe you guys don't see the center on the coast on the southern edge of the strong convection. It is moving into that convection complex right now. We will see this become a hurricane by Sat. midday.


You seem to be obsessed with the exact position of the center. Relax man ,there is a long way to go before we know what this thing is doing. The center's position right now is not that important.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I was just wondering the same thing. I am thinking it just may be the convection increasing as that section of the circulation reaches open water. Should continue N
just called the Airlines no early flights out.(all booked) so I must not be the only tourist watching.I guess i can hit the bar and wait and see.Sucks that you wait all year to get tropical sun and then a storm comes its been cloudy the entire time and Im sure its only gonna get worse,Guess I can drink some of that Tortuga rum, Lol
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Is anyone thinking that the mess in the Gulf is beginning to develop? There is very good upper level divergence over the system and a dry slot looks like it is trying to develop as well. What do y'all think?

Click the image for a loop
Click on the image to view a loop.
Sure is. It will ramp up tomorrow afternoon.
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381. P451
15N 84W. Seems further north than that to me but if that's what they say then I guess that is where she is.



Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting StormW:


Uh oh...goddess hanna is mad (time to hide)

Duck and Cover Storm! ;)
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Is anyone thinking that the mess in the Gulf is beginning to develop? There is very good upper level divergence over the system and a dry slot looks like it is trying to develop as well. What do y'all think?

Click the image for a loop
Click on the image to view a loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
After a pumpkin spice and 2 donuts... Rare is predicting a Cat1 in Conchs bathroom
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Loop of past NHC tracks for Ida.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't worry, they always let tourists know in time to evacuate. It's just us locals that don't get much warning.


Tourists will be evacuated unless they elect to stay - if this happens, my advice to any tourist is go! We love u dearly but, frankly, most of u get in the way during a Recovery!

Smile wryly at other comment regarding locals - I have been in "correspondence" with clients since Tues AM regarding what was then possibly a potential, future threat to Cayman Islands. Have always thought that Private Sector in CI is way ahead of Govt when these events rear their ugly heads.

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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Is it the shape of the land mas or is she heading more east than north.?
It has looked that way to me for several hours.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
A TRACL LIKE IRENE OF 1999 IS VERY POSSIBLE.
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I can't believe you guys don't see the center on the coast on the southern edge of the strong convection. It is moving into that convection complex right now. We will see this become a hurricane by Sat. midday.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Dang it i hate to be right,now i am gonna have to shutter up the house and get some back up supplies, DANG!!!!!!
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I am beginning to see an increase in convection near the center
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Is it the shape of the land mas or is she heading more east than north.?
I was just wondering the same thing. I am thinking it just may be the convection increasing as that section of the circulation reaches open water. Should continue N
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i BELEIVE THE TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER EAST WITH EACH ADVISORY.
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367. amd
Quoting Jeff9641:

It appears that a new center farther north is taking shape right now. You will see this really transpire over the next hour or two. As this happens this storm will intensify quickly. There is banding wraping into that thunderstorm ball.


the center of Ida is still on land, not too far from the coast. Now, it looks like the center of Ida is moving east of due north, and my best guess based on the RGB imagery for the center of Ida is 15.3 N 83.9 W, just south of the coast of Honduras. Ida will be offshore in a couple of hours. I see no evidence of a center reforming much further to the NW in the new convective band. However, as soon as Ida clears the coast, that band will be able to wrap into Ida, and modest restrengthening should occur. JMHO

Also, the 10 a.m. edt (1500 UTC) location of the center was at 15.0 N 84.0 W. So, in the 1 pm NHC outlook, since the NHC did not issue an advisory, they stated the 10 am Ida center location.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS NOVEMBER 06, 2009 ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST


I'll be ready for anything A TS, A cat 1, a nor easter, cats and dogs living together!, anything!!!
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Quoting SSideBrac:


We would be lucky to get an official "Alert" in Cayman Islands - normally "official advice" seems to lurch straight into "Watch".
Public holiday here today - wonder whether - nope I will not say it!
Is it the shape of the land mas or is she heading more east than north.?
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Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am,

Lower wind shear values as opposed to earlier, and an established upper level anticyclone for ventilation. Combine that with high TCHP, and we could see her re-intensify to hurricane status prior to entering the GOMEX.

*stomps feet* no no no ;)
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Thanks!
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361. IKE
Quoting 850Realtor:
Sorry...in a hurry...quoted wrong.

Quoting IKE:
12Z HWRF brings it eerily close to the Florida panhandle as a hurricane.

Can u post real quick or tell me where to find this?


Post 334.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormsurge39:
When Ida becomes a hurricane closer to the GOM and is a threat to the USA,thats when you will see the Media come alive!
The media is coming alive right now. Many reporters are showing up at the weather offices and interviewing the meteorologists. There will be a lot more on the news about Ida this evening than there has been.
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Quoting 850Realtor:


Can u post real quick?
?
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Sorry...in a hurry...quoted wrong.

Quoting IKE:
12Z HWRF brings it eerily close to the Florida panhandle as a hurricane.

Can u post real quick or tell me where to find this?
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When Ida becomes a hurricane closer to the GOM and is a threat to the USA,thats when you will see the Media come alive!
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Link
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Ike do you think it will get that close and just stop? Ill have to see it to believe it!


Can u post real quick?
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Quoting cybergrump:

Cant be 15.0N


Might want to take it up with the nhc then or prove your position on the center.

NHC
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Dont see a new center and NHC fixed the center at 15.0N 84.0W. Just north of the border.

It appears that a new center farther north is taking shape right now. You will see this really transpire over the next hour or two. As this happens this storm will intensify quickly. There is banding wraping into that thunderstorm ball.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
there is not intermediate update at this point because there are no more watches or warnings out at this time

So no 1pm EDT update
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351. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Ike do you think it will get that close and just stop? Ill have to see it to believe it!


It's possible.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
They use boards in chicago to kill people.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z HWRF brings it eerily close to the Florida panhandle as a hurricane.
Ike do you think it will get that close and just stop? Ill have to see it to believe it!
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348. IKE
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting jdcweatherky:
Is that why im having trouble finding out anything about the storm, its like they dont won't you to know anything about the storm.I guess because im a tourest, I got stuck in the key when Rita hit and lost my car due to Floods.
Don't worry, they always let tourists know in time to evacuate. It's just us locals that don't get much warning.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Quoting Jeff9641:


IDA I believe has relocated it's center in that convection ball somewhere. Hard to tell. IDA appears to be in there. I'm surprised no one else is noticing this.


Dont see a new center and NHC fixed the center at 15.0N 84.0W. Just north of the border.
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Quoting SSideBrac:


We would be lucky to get an official "Alert" in Cayman Islands - normally "official advice" seems to lurch straight into "Watch".
Public holiday here today - wonder whether - nope I will not say it!
Probably only in time to lock your front door but not much else.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Quoting StormChaser81:
As of 1pm

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR
15.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS MOVING NORTH 6
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

Cant be 15.0N
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I think the center is relocating itself under that intense ball of convection. If you look at the latest visible sat. you will see this.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting Jeff9641:


IDA I believe has relocated it's center in that convection ball somewhere. Hard to tell. IDA appears to be in there. I'm surprised no one else is noticing this.
Visible shows Idas COC still over land!
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Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:
FLWeatherfreak... Hope your weather is better than your news... "Officials are reporting at least two people are dead and eight others were wounded in a downtown sky-rise shooting in Orlando."
It is haha. I just posted what I heard from someone. It turned out to be incorrect.
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Quoting hurricane23:
should be back over water soon...
at the paling of the day night time entry
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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