Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormsurge39:
When Ida becomes a hurricane closer to the GOM and is a threat to the USA,thats when you will see the Media come alive!


sad but true, thats why i come here for up to the minute info.

we've had light rain on and off all day so far here on Roatan. but so still its creepy. no air movement at all right now.

will be paying close attention tonight and tomorrow morning.
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18Z Model Update



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting Patrap:
18Z
Ida
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

LBar right at Cayman and all a little closer this way. Don't like Ida one bit.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
18Z

Ida Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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Just hate the look of that LBAR line
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434. GBlet
Most any other time 80 would be great. Early next week when the rains come it will feel more like hunting season than it does now. Fall and winter hunting are very big here and we could use a good season.
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18Z
Ida
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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Ida is going to miss the next forecast point moving to the north with a tad to the east
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Quoting GBlet:
Well, I hope our weather cools back off, 80 degrees just confuses the ducks and hunters alike.



LOL, just reading that made me smile.. we finally "cooled" down to a high of 80 today! after record breaking high 80's for past few weeks! LOL


hi everyone, just lurking during lunch break to see what is going on here.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40955
Ida Is right on the coast will be into the water within the next hour or so tonight will be very intresting
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone interested in receiving my updates personally, please send me an email to my secondary address, m.walsh24@yahoo.com...I had to set up a second account to handle more clients. You'll receive the same updates as I post here, but with color graphics as far as tracking map, cone of error, etc., etc.

I have room for about 20 more folks.



jrdj5806@comcast.net

Thank you, StormW.
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone interested in receiving my updates personally, please send me an email to my secondary address, m.walsh24@yahoo.com...I had to set up a second account to handle more clients. You'll receive the same updates as I post here, but with color graphics as far as tracking map, cone of error, etc., etc.

I have room for about 20 more folks.
abello3_capecoral@yahoo.com
Thanks Storm
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Grand Cayman Marriott, Fall is the only time I can go on Vacation, I love the Tropics, but im not doing to well. I was in the keys when Rita hit. I do want to come back wonderful island.The Rain sucks though.


Head off to Mezza for a good steak or Rack of Lamb and glass of pinot noir - relax and enjoy the best u can - I repeat - I do not think IMHO that IDA will do us too much mischief at all. BUT I do await NHC updates impatiently!
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Quoting P451:


Earlier this morning, in the SW'most part of the BOC, I thought I saw something starting to twist up.


I suspect you may be correct in your observation. Sure is alot of interesting stuff going on when they analyzed everything for the models.


A good amount of divergence exists over the mess because of it's proximity to an advancing shortwave.


Alot of vorticity exists at 500 mbs, even if it isn't all that organized yet.


An inverted trough is also noted at 700 mbs as well as at 850 mbs.

All in all, looks like a very interesting set up!
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone interested in receiving my updates personally, please send me an email to my secondary address, m.walsh24@yahoo.com...I had to set up a second account to handle more clients. You'll receive the same updates as I post here, but with color graphics as far as tracking map, cone of error, etc., etc.

I have room for about 20 more folks.


*raises hand * oooh oooh mememememememe!
I just sent my email to you
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423. MahFL
I see the center over water now. Some convection building around the SW quadrent to link up to the SE. Also a big flare up and cooling of cloud tops.
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Quoting Progster:
CMC 12Z global integration combines ex-ida and subtrop system that forms in the western Atlantic along the Maryland coast on day 7, and forms....you guessed it...Cat 5 Hits New York ! :)
Link


It looks more and more likely we'll see a massive extra-topical system out of all this!
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lol. Ok if you say so. I'm saying...be prepared but it is unlikely. Even if it were to move due north, without the forecasted westerly component, it would pass over 100 miles away. That might be on the very edge of any TS force winds, if the wind field is even that large. Squally weather and thats it. Enjoy your long weekend.
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
good rain band about to hit us here in Grand Cayman
I better go get my tortuga and head back to my room.lol
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Quoting SSideBrac:


If this does develop into worst case (and at this time IMHO I do not think it will - although we will get some fesity weather) - even if u cannot get off island do not worry - we do have very strict building codes and solid infrastructure - Ivan and Paloma bear witness concerning casualties.
Agreed. Brings to mind the Mr. Vegas song "I am blessed"
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
I don't see Ida getting that strong. Just to her north of where she is now some wind shear 20-30kts is waiting for her. if she didn't have to rebuild her core again I would of went with a hurricane for a shoe in. I would say Ida will be lucky to get to a strong TS. The center is just moving offshore now.
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415. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Anyone interested in receiving my updates personally, please send me an email to my secondasry address, m.walsh24@yahoo.com...I had to set up a second account to handle more clients. You'll receive the same updates as I post here, but with color graphics as far as tracking map, cone of error, etc., etc.

I have room for about 20 more folks.


Sent you my email address.

Back in a bit.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
good rain band about to hit us here in Grand Cayman
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Am I the only one that noticed as soon as this thing ramped up the ads at the top have all been generators, flashlights, etc... Just sayin
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Quoting SSideBrac:


Drink more Tortuga but not so much that u cannot understand the Hotel Manager (what hotel r u in?) if the worst case scenario pans out!! I do also have to say that u elected to come to Cayman Islands in Wet Season and - yes - we do sometimes get rain here - thankfully
Grand Cayman Marriott, Fall is the only time I can go on Vacation, I love the Tropics, but im not doing to well. I was in the keys when Rita hit. I do want to come back wonderful island.The Rain sucks though.
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone interested in receiving my updates personally, please send me an email to my secondasry address, m.walsh24@yahoo.com...I had to set up a second account to handle more clients. You'll receive the same updates as I post here, but with color graphics as far as tracking map, cone of error, etc., etc.

I have room for about 20 more folks.


leave me a space ...I'll email when I get home from work :)
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410. GBlet
Well, I hope our weather cools back off, 80 degrees just confuses the ducks and hunters alike.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just in case something does hit and you do get stuck go further inland or find a shelter. Schools, fire stations, Red Cross building and there are others. Don't let it worry you too much. Ivan hit us as a Cat4-5 and had two avoidable deaths only.


If this does develop into worst case (and at this time IMHO I do not think it will - although we will get some fesity weather) - even if u cannot get off island do not worry - we do have very strict building codes and solid infrastructure - Ivan and Paloma bear witness concerning casualties.
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
Guys relax, it is very unlikey that Ida will pass less than 100 miles off of Grand Cayman, if even that. The models are in relatively good agreement an even if the center was to reform a bit further east, GC would likely pass through it without much more than some choppy seas and rain. This is not a Paloma type scenario.
YOU WISH!!!!
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407. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 11 2009110618 BEST 0 154N 839W 30 1007 TD


Well, I was close.

I said 15.5 and 84.

It's emerging off of the coast. Ida should be firing up this afternoon...evening, into tomorrow.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting ElConando:


I'll be ready for anything A TS, A cat 1, a nor easter, cats and dogs living together!, anything!!!


Hmmm... nevermind.
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
Guys relax, it is very unlikey that Ida will pass less than 100 miles off of Grand Cayman, if even that. The models are in relatively good agreement an even if the center was to reform a bit further east, GC would likely pass through it without much more than some choppy seas and rain. This is not a Paloma type scenario.
You still in Miami ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
AL 11 2009110618 BEST 0 154N 839W 30 1007 TD


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 83.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 84.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 83.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Guys relax, it is very unlikey that Ida will pass less than 100 miles off of Grand Cayman, if even that. The models are in relatively good agreement an even if the center was to reform a bit further east, GC would likely pass through it without much more than some choppy seas and rain. This is not a Paloma type scenario.
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Quoting P451:


Terra Hyper Joe Cyclone Typhoon Tornado Super Bastardi Cane?




*runs*




at the very least :)
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Now that you say that I bet a StormW2 pops up. LOL


If he does anything useful, he should come up with a tacoman2.

Not that either one of them would have any thought behind the posts, but if you're gonna imitate the best...
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12z UKMET is in near fort myers area...Iam still holding on this being something to watch from the lake down to the keys but well see.
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watching the funktop loop and I can see the convention to the west of the center moving from west to east. It wants to wrap around the center.
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
just called the Airlines no early flights out.(all booked) so I must not be the only tourist watching.I guess i can hit the bar and wait and see.Sucks that you wait all year to get tropical sun and then a storm comes its been cloudy the entire time and Im sure its only gonna get worse,Guess I can drink some of that Tortuga rum, Lol


Drink more Tortuga but not so much that u cannot understand the Hotel Manager (what hotel r u in?) if the worst case scenario pans out!! I do also have to say that u elected to come to Cayman Islands in Wet Season and - yes - we do sometimes get rain here - thankfully
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
just called the Airlines no early flights out.(all booked) so I must not be the only tourist watching.I guess i can hit the bar and wait and see.Sucks that you wait all year to get tropical sun and then a storm comes its been cloudy the entire time and Im sure its only gonna get worse,Guess I can drink some of that Tortuga rum, Lol
Just in case something does hit and you do get stuck go further inland or find a shelter. Schools, fire stations, Red Cross building and there are others. Don't let it worry you too much. Ivan hit us as a Cat4-5 and had two avoidable deaths only.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
393. IKE
It looks near 15.5N and 84W as of 1745UTC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
CMC 12Z global integration combines ex-ida and subtrop system that forms in the western Atlantic along the Maryland coast on day 7, and forms....you guessed it...Cat 5 Hits New York ! :)
Link
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Some Updated 12z models..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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