Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:


Has Ida becoming absorbed into an extratropical.


About a day sooner than current NHC.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

I missed it.. Just dang. GA has a fault that makes the San Andreas look small. SO it is 100 miles deep or so.



probably cause it was at midnight haha :)
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COC of Ida ready to emerge off the coast at 15.6N/83.9W, would anyone agree with this observation, I would say at 4pm it will probably be upgraded to a TS once again.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
Quoting markymark1973:
I don't see Ida getting that strong. Just to her north of where she is now some wind shear 20-30kts is waiting for her. if she didn't have to rebuild her core again I would of went with a hurricane for a shoe in. I would say Ida will be lucky to get to a strong TS. The center is just moving offshore now.


Here's the shear forecast for 96 hours (4 days) out:



And 120 hours (5 days) out:



I don't think the shear is going to be that big an issue...seems to open out as she arrives. This forecast may be taking into account that she will be modifying the immediate environment, but she won't have that big an effect...no, if this holds, shear is not going to be the issue you think it is...
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Quoting Drakoen:
I see the Ida has survived her trek across Central America and appears ready for intensification once the center emerges completely over water. Wind shear will be somewhat of a problem in the short term but then the models advect an anticyclone northward as the system travels through the northern Caribbean. If this pans out there is the potential for significant intensification of the system. When the system ends up the in the GOM the further south it tracks the more likely it would remain a tropical cyclone and the stronger it could potentially become. It is not a surprise that the model have shifted southward somewhat as storms this time of year have a difficult time advect towards the north Gulf coast completely.
What are your thoughts on the track through the rest of the Caribbean ? She seems to me and a few others to be tracking just E of N.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Thanks Storm---you're the best!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z ECMWF





Has Ida becoming absorbed into an extratropical.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 3.4
Date-Time

* Friday, November 06, 2009 at 06:12:39 UTC
* Friday, November 06, 2009 at 12:12:39 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.088°N, 89.402°W
Depth 9.7 km (6.0 miles)
Region TENNESSEE
Distances

* 6 km (4 miles) NNW (342°) from Dyersburg, TN
* 12 km (8 miles) WSW (255°) from Newbern, TN
* 21 km (13 miles) SSE (160°) from Ridgely, TN
* 120 km (74 miles) NNE (25°) from Memphis, TN
* 292 km (182 miles) SSE (165°) from St. Louis, MO

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.7 km (0.4 miles)
Parameters NST= 24, Nph= 27, Dmin=2 km, Rmss=0.04 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=B

pretty big tremor for tennesse felt over 500km away


I missed it.. Just dang. GA has a fault that makes the San Andreas look small. SO it is 100 miles deep or so.
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Quoting SSideBrac:
Somewhat cynically amused (but not surprised)that last posting on "CaymanPrepared" regarding IDA was Thu 5 Nov at 11.20 AM.

BTW - what is Cayrock - no, I do know but do not get that kind of modern amenity on the Brac. Personally, I will miss Alexi on Spin FM
What really gets me is that if Ida does impact Cayman I think it would most likely be tomorrow night/Sunday morning and our government is not doing anything to make people aware of a "possible" threat.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
I see the Ida has survived her trek across Central America and appears ready for intensification once the center emerges completely over water. Wind shear will be somewhat of a problem in the short term but then the models advect an anticyclone northward as the system travels through the northern Caribbean. If this pans out there is the potential for significant intensification of the system. When the system ends up the in the GOM the further south it tracks the more likely it would remain a tropical cyclone and the stronger it could potentially become. It is not a surprise that the model have shifted southward somewhat as storms this time of year have a difficult time advect towards the north Gulf coast completely.
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Quoting Patrap:
Its all relative..Things become muddled in the dynamic runs as Ida Misses the exit route,stalls..



She stalled again?
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12Z ECMWF



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 3.4
Date-Time

* Friday, November 06, 2009 at 06:12:39 UTC
* Friday, November 06, 2009 at 12:12:39 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.088°N, 89.402°W
Depth 9.7 km (6.0 miles)
Region TENNESSEE
Distances

* 6 km (4 miles) NNW (342°) from Dyersburg, TN
* 12 km (8 miles) WSW (255°) from Newbern, TN
* 21 km (13 miles) SSE (160°) from Ridgely, TN
* 120 km (74 miles) NNE (25°) from Memphis, TN
* 292 km (182 miles) SSE (165°) from St. Louis, MO

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.7 km (0.4 miles)
Parameters NST= 24, Nph= 27, Dmin=2 km, Rmss=0.04 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=B

pretty big tremor for tennesse felt over 500km away

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Coastal Flood Watch Se. Louisiana

Statement as of 12:23 PM CST on November 06, 2009

... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday
morning...

Tides are expected to continue increasing to abnormally high
levels and persist at higher levels during the weekend and into
early next week. These higher than normal tide levels are being
driven by a combination of strong easterly winds and increased
wave action. These conditions will continue through the weekend
and into early next week.

Interests along the coast and on the tidal lakes outside the
hurricane levee protection systems should closely monitor the
situation. Also interests along lower reaches of rivers and
streams that drain into the tidal lakes should be mindful of
rising water levels due to tidal effects.

Residents and interests along the coast are urged to make
preparations for moderate to significant inundation that may last
for 2 to 3 days as tides rise to 3 to 4 feet above normal at
times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Preparedness actions should
include removal of machinery... vehicles and other movable
property out of areas prone to coastal flooding today. Access
roads into tidal marshes... marinas and area camps are likely to
become inundated and impassible for lengthy periods by Sunday
morning through Tuesday. Some minor inundation may be realized as
early as Saturday morning.

Stay tuned to local TV... radio... NOAA all-hazards radio or the
internet for the latest on this potential coastal flooding
episode. A coastal Flood Warning may be issued for portions of
the coast this weekend or early next week.
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings,
The email list has filled up, however, I will create another account to fit more folks on.
Thanks. I didn't figure it would take long to fill up. Hope you got mine.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting SSideBrac:
Somewhat cynically amused (but not surprised)that last posting on "CaymanPrepared" regarding IDA was Thu 5 Nov at 11.20 AM.

BTW - what is Cayrock - no, I do know but do not get that kind of modern amenity on the Brac. Personally, I will miss Alexi on Spin FM
You don't get DMS stations over there ? You can get them via the internet though.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting P451:


IMO, half of the center is over the Caribbean already and yes the rest is over that large bay. So, essentially, it's emerged.

As to Katrina yes it passed over the everglades. That was one of the STRONGEST minimal Cat-1 Hurricanes I think anyone had ever witnessed.

The everglades were also notorious for allowing SW-FL landfalling hurricanes to proceed inland without weakening. In fact, did we not have one system that went from a TS at landfall and strengthen to a hurricane over the everglades? I know it was in recent years - but entirely unsure if it was ever upgraded in the post-season-analysis.

So it just shows you it's not a line drawn in the sand in terms of land versus sea. The type of land plays in heavily.


In 2008, Tropical Storm Fay came ashore south of Naples and strengthened to near hurricane over Big Cypress Swamp after landfall.
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NWS Slidell,La.

Marine...
gradient expected to tighten the next few days with Small Craft
Advisory conditions for both wind and seas likely by Saturday
afternoon and continuing into at least Tuesday...perhaps longer.
Have issued Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas for outer
coastal waters as seas appear to have reached 7 feet already beyond
20 nm. Buoy 42001 in middle-Gulf is at 10 feet with 8 second swell
train. The Small Craft Advisory will be expanded northward to the shore for 00z
Saturday /this evening/ and continue until further notice though an
upgrade to gale warnings may be warranted if low pressure system in
lower Gulf/Bay of Campeche region strengthens as models suggest.
Another complication would be re-emergence of T.D. Ida out of the
Caribbean into the lower Gulf near Yucatan Channel in coming days.
Clearly...the strong high pressure over land in the 1025mb range
slipping across a gradient to 1010mb or lower in the southern Gulf
would support 40 knots of gradient wind at some point Sunday and
possibly into Monday.


Regarding coastal flooding...confidence remains high that coastal
flooding of a moderate magnitude will result with some minor
inundation possible Saturday...increasing in depth with each
subsequent tide cycle Sunday through Tuesday. Will upgrade to
coastal Flood Watch with mention of 1 foot above normal
Saturday...2-3 feet above normal Sunday...3 feet above normal Monday
and possibly 4 feet above normal Tuesday morning before improving as
strong offshore flow onsets throughout the day Tuesday. A coastal
Flood Warning appears warranted at some point for Sunday and
Monday...which may be issued Saturday morning. 24/rr
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MY PREDICTION: FLORIDA STORM. ANYWHERE FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A TRACK LIKE IRENE OF 1999 IS VERY POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BEGUN THEIR RIGHT SHIFT.
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IDA Floater - Infrared Channel 2 Loop
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Ida, bienvenido al mar otra vez :)
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Somewhat cynically amused (but not surprised)that last posting on "CaymanPrepared" regarding IDA was Thu 5 Nov at 11.20 AM.

BTW - what is Cayrock - no, I do know but do not get that kind of modern amenity on the Brac. Personally, I will miss Alexi on Spin FM
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Quoting Patrap:
Sun Night thru Monday Morning the Ne Texas Coast to the Mouth of the Miss River will be getting the Brunt of the GOM System.

Both systems now seen on the GOES-12 GOM IR Frame,loop.


Well, at least we have most of the weekend to stay dry...We had way too much rain last week.
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GOES
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Quoting caymanjules1:


Yeah, he was working this morning in spite of it being Constitution Day. All hail Premier Mac!
Don't know if I want to LOL on that one.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok. CayRock rocks.Ben still there ?


Yeah, he was working this morning in spite of it being Constitution Day. All hail Premier Mac!
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Sun Night thru Monday Morning the Ne Texas Coast to the Mouth of the Miss River will be getting the Brunt of the GOM System.

Both systems now seen on the GOES-12 GOM IR Frame,loop.

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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Quoting jdcweatherky:


Most good places are pricey!!!
I think best time for a visitor is late April/early May - out of High Season, warm weather without too much heat and highly unlikely to get a Hurricane - we hope to be able to welcome u back with some sunshine.
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Quoting caymanjules1:
No, I'm a CayRock man myself!
Ok. CayRock rocks.Ben still there ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
No, I'm a CayRock man myself!
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Quoting caymanjules1:
Well I managed to dodge the rain and get a tennis match in on South Sound this morning.
Typical we've got rain for a four day holiday weekend, but i've just cut back all my hedges so they'll enjoy the drink. Talking of which I'll watch the storm from the bar at Calypso Grill this weekend,so life ain't too bad!


Enjoy - I will do my watching from Brac Reef Beach Resort Bar. No rain here although big rain clouds passing about 6 miles to South (headed your way??)- sea is distinctly choppier and periods of gusty winds - will still monitor closely however!
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Over the ocean and ramping up :) The spaghetti models have been updated and they have Ida feet wet.



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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451. MahFL
P451, isn't the center over a large bay now, essentially already over water. Remember katrian and the everglades....i think it was Katrina....
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Quoting SSideBrac:


Head off to Mezza for a good steak or Rack of Lamb and glass of pinot noir - relax and enjoy the best u can - I repeat - I do not think IMHO that IDA will do us too much mischief at all. BUT I do await NHC updates impatiently!Done it Yesterday, Stk @ Lobster.Awsom!!! Pricey but well worth it!!!Thanks so much for the advice. I might come back after christmas .and take another chance maybe there won't be any storms lol.
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Quoting caymanjules1:
Well I managed to dodge the rain and get a tennis match in on South Sound this morning.
Typical we've got rain for a four day holiday weekend, but i've just cut back all my hedges so they'll enjoy the drink. Talking of which I'll watch the storm from the bar at Calypso Grill this weekend,so life ain't too bad!
Are you Jules from Hot 104 ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Well I managed to dodge the rain and get a tennis match in on South Sound this morning.
Typical we've got rain for a four day holiday weekend, but i've just cut back all my hedges so they'll enjoy the drink. Talking of which I'll watch the storm from the bar at Calypso Grill this weekend,so life ain't too bad!
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Expect an eastward shift to the NHC cone if this trend continues based on these updated models. 18z Bam models added.

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Its all relative..Things become muddled in the dynamic runs as Ida Misses the exit route,stalls..

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Rare...reserve us a pad at the Risqué...we will be there in 1 week...
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Quoting Patrap:
18Z
Ida
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

looks like we have a shift to the right and now the models have IDA meandering in the easttern gulf of mexico
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Patrap - that's better - thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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