Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:

read patrap's post 666


Oh, that's an evil one.
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689. IKE
I see the center now near 16.2N and 84.2W.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East of the TFP correct ?


Very close to the TFP. Just east of it by .1 degree
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IDA Dvorak Still.



Rainbow still

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Quoting pearlandaggie:
i think at this point in time with 5 days out, the safest place to be is right where the cone of doom is pointing. the storms almost never end up there :)


That has always been my thoughts. 3-5 days out it never hits where the cone is pointing.


just lurking when I can and keeping on eye on this.

Quoting Detrina:
here is sfla... 4 bottle of "good" vodka, 4 limes and wait....
do you really think that ida could hit us?????


Naaw, a florida boy or girl for that matter knows four limes would never be enough for a hurricane!

(I bought a bag...just in case)



and several good bottles of wine........
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Quoting Patrap:
Windsmurf was that Guy who tried to Wind Surf during Fay.


This guy?? Link

I've had him bookmarked since it happened. lol
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Lol, bring some snacks too, I blew the budget on shakers and limes:)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Take a good look at that. It shows Honduras and Ida north of Cuba and east of Florida.

I don't get how/why that image so messed up. The slug at the bottom says NOAA base imagery, Clouds: NERC Weather Station, Univ. of Dundee.
Someone drinkin' too much out of Islands' drink that was mentioned earlier.
Now I do see copyright of Inaccuweather on some other images...

So besides here, where DO you all get your info? Besides NOAA radios, of course. Are local radio/tv stations okay?
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Quoting btwntx08:
brownsville airport pressure at 12:53 this am was 30.23 in now as of 1:53 pm the was now 30.12 in and falling.


So?
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Quoting Drakoen:
It does look like the center is advancing into the convection.
East of the TFP correct ?
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It does look like the center is advancing into the convection.
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IDA Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting Detrina:
here is sfla... 4 bottle of "good" vodka, 4 limes and wait....
do you really think that ida could hit us?????


Naaw, a florida boy or girl for that matter knows four limes would never be enough for a hurricane!

(I bought a bag...just in case)



i'm going to your house with my good vodka
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i think at this point in time with 5 days out, the safest place to be is right where the cone of doom is pointing. the storms almost never end up there :)
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here is sfla... 4 bottle of "good" vodka, 4 limes and wait....
do you really think that ida could hit us?????


Naaw, a florida boy or girl for that matter knows four limes would never be enough for a hurricane!

(I bought a bag...just in case)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


011L/TD/I
MARK
15.5N/84.5W
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Windsmurf was that Guy who tried to Wind Surf during Fay.
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Quoting WINDSMURF:

My apologies

For future reference. All caps is considered shouting in the cyber world. Apology accepted. I still write my invoices in all caps because my handwriting is atracious at best.
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Quoting WINDSMURF:
I THINK IDA IS NOT MOVING RIGHT NOW DONT TOU GUYS THINK, IF THAT IS THE CASE IT MAY TURN TO THE EAST SOONER AND POSSIBLY A CONCERN FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA OR POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA. WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK?

Whats a windsmurf?
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Comment "666'..

Sheesh.
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Station 42002 (LLNR 1405) - W GULF 207 NM East of Brownsville, TX


Conditions at 42002 as of
(1:50 pm CST)
1950 GMT on 11/06/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 78 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure

Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water

Temperature (WTMP): 80.1 °F
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96e and ida moving in tandem with each other nne
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Drakoen post 623

Very educational post. Simple but important to determine wind shear without MOS data.
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Quoting btwntx08:

caps lock please lower case

My apologies
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Quoting centralflaman:
time to by some hurricane party supplies just in case. If it doesnt come than I can save them for new years


here is sfla... 4 bottle of "good" vodka, 4 limes and wait....
do you really think that ida could hit us?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Conditions at 42001 as of
(1:50 pm CST)
1950 GMT on 11/06/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.7 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.06 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure


Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )


5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.5 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 F
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660. beell
655.
the strong high pressure over land in the 1025mb range
slipping across a gradient to 1010mb or lower in the southern Gulf
would support 40 knots of gradient wind at some point Sunday and
possibly into Monday.


The gales of November!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I see 20 @ 850mb...25 knots shear value.

Enough to tear apart a small burgeoning little TC...


That is 20 at 850mb which would be 25knots of wind shear. The storm, though has expanded.
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657. xcool
looking good.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 am CST Friday Nov 6 2009



Marine...

gradient expected to tighten the next few days with Small Craft
Advisory conditions for both wind and seas likely by Saturday
afternoon and continuing into at least Tuesday...perhaps longer.
Have issued Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas for outer
coastal waters as seas appear to have reached 7 feet already beyond
20 nm. Buoy 42001 in middle-Gulf is at 10 feet with 8 second swell
train. The Small Craft Advisory will be expanded northward to the shore for 00z
Saturday /this evening/ and continue until further notice though an
upgrade to gale warnings may be warranted if low pressure system in
lower Gulf/Bay of Campeche region strengthens as models suggest.
Another complication would be re-emergence of T.D. Ida out of the
Caribbean into the lower Gulf near Yucatan Channel in coming days.
Clearly...the strong high pressure over land in the 1025mb range
slipping across a gradient to 1010mb or lower in the southern Gulf
would support 40 knots of gradient wind at some point Sunday and
possibly into Monday.


Regarding coastal flooding...confidence remains high that coastal
flooding of a moderate magnitude will result with some minor
inundation possible Saturday...increasing in depth with each
subsequent tide cycle Sunday through Tuesday. Will upgrade to
coastal Flood Watch with mention of 1 foot above normal
Saturday...2-3 feet above normal Sunday...3 feet above normal Monday
and possibly 4 feet above normal Tuesday morning before improving as
strong offshore flow onsets throughout the day Tuesday. A coastal
Flood Warning appears warranted at some point for Sunday and
Monday...which may be issued Saturday morning. 24/rr
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Quoting IKE:
Kind of looks to me like the center of Ida has emerged off of the Guatemala coast and may be relocating under the convection just north of the coast.


That's what I am seeing too. Let's see if she can gain her convection and strengthen.
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Looks like the storm will be a hybrid system transitioning to extra tropical once it gets to the northeast gulf. The NHC is expecting the system to be pretty sheered in the gulf and the conditions should be very baroclinic. Will keep watching. And keep you posted as I hear from the NHC.
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I THINK IDA IS NOT MOVING RIGHT NOW DONT TOU GUYS THINK, IF THAT IS THE CASE IT MAY TURN TO THE EAST SOONER AND POSSIBLY A CONCERN FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA OR POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA. WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK?
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Ida's core is completely offshore.
so everyone get on the floor and freak til you can freak no more.
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650. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting Drakoen:


45knots(200mb)-25knots(850mb)= 20 knots of shear

I see 20 @ 850mb...25 knots shear value.

Enough to tear apart a small burgeoning little TC...

Plus I think nrt is correct about that. Makes no sense to just consider the speed without the directional change...
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Ida's core is completely offshore.


Yup
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Local and 20 minutes.
GREAT!! When i go to on vacation to another country .I enjoy eating a local place or drink at a local club. but I still have to have my resort to sleep in at night,LOl
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Coastal Flood Watch Se. Louisiana

Statement as of 12:23 PM CST on November 06, 2009



... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday
morning...

Tides are expected to continue increasing to abnormally high
levels and persist at higher levels during the weekend and into
early next week. These higher than normal tide levels are being
driven by a combination of strong easterly winds and increased
wave action. These conditions will continue through the weekend
and into early next week.

Interests along the coast and on the tidal lakes outside the
hurricane levee protection systems should closely monitor the
situation. Also interests along lower reaches of rivers and
streams that drain into the tidal lakes should be mindful of
rising water levels due to tidal effects.

Residents and interests along the coast are urged to make
preparations for moderate to significant inundation that may last
for 2 to 3 days as tides rise to 3 to 4 feet above normal at
times.
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Has anyone taken into consideration that next Friday is Friday the 13th??????


Charley hit on a Friday the 13th :P


lol oops sorry
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644. IKE
Edit....***Honduras coast***
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Has anyone taken into consideration that next Friday is Friday the 13th??????
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She's gonna put her red dress on...

and Spin the night away.
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Quoting IKE:
Kind of looks to me like the center of Ida has emerged off of the Guatemala coast and may be relocating under the convection just north of the coast.


Honduras?
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Quoting IKE:
Kind of looks to me like the center of Ida has emerged off of the Guatemala coast and may be relocating under the convection just north of the coast.


Guatemala? Where'd you learn Geography?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.