Ida survives its Central American crossing
Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.
Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.
Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.
The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index
http://www.nwhhc.com/PNJ/pnj_1106.mp3
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
last frame revealing the inner core?
Yep i believe so...not all that unexpectd as some models show Ida doing just that.
Look at the GFDL in green.....its right on.....
hard to tell and regardless it's only a frame or two that looks that way to me and could easily be a wobble. I maintain due north for the time being.
In my opinion.. Others have different opinions
Shear maps are only reliable if the satellite loops agree
Looking at the satellite loops; Ida is absolutely not under 20-30 knots of shear
yes but if you look closely at satellite you'll see that the area very near Ida has less shear .. generally I look at WV to discern UL wind direction .. and up and until an hour ago it had been steady SW to NE .. last few frames show outflow increasing in the southern sections
Look closely...
Possibly. One interesting thing I noticed from that loop, is that it appears Ida may be developing weak outflow to the south. This will be helpful for intensification in this shear.
lol you read my mind :~)
It appears recently this is the case. I completely agree with you. Now I don't want wishcast or any of that rubbish, but if it goes farther east than forecast and stronger at the same time, it will be interesting to see what the long term effects are.
lol i just said that like twice XD but yeah I agree
edit: Id like to see one more frame or two but I really think WV is showing the core with that speck of really cold clouds on the NE ... dare I say .. Eyewall.
little closer pic......ya i think it is moving East some.
TampaSpin you can seeing go back n now
It seems like it now. and 86W is still farther west than I think it will go, but not out of the question. But who knows, maybe this ridge will build in slightly and end this northward motion. There's so many factors here.
Correct...too many factors.. also the GFDL starts this out 6hrs from now..or really 1 hour from now near 84.7W and its about 83.8W... models dont have a grasp yet..also dont have 1 on strength really. GFS probably has the best handle..also the HRWF in direction.. think the GFS is kinda too slow the first 36hrs.
Now what this needs to develop more is ...sucking in the midlevel moisture to its north.. that is not 100% associated with IDA.. its enhanced midlevel mositure that was pulled into IDA when she was a hurricane before landfall in Nicaragua... she needs to deepen more under 998mbs to get that mositure wraped into her... right now she has a tight small LLC.. any shear over 25kts will blow off the convection constantly from her center and keep her around 1005mbs.. so she needs to deepen some..get the moisture into her to expand more in the T-Storm area to get herself going.
When they post the direction... it was from that positon from the previous position. Doesnt mean thats the direction it will go until the next advisory... its always the previous 6hrs.
I agree. I believe she's on her way, judging by the improved outflow to the south. I believe she's a TS now, and we'll see if this core can deepen and become more symmetric. I would like to see what the models do after some more recon input, but we'll have to wait for that.
you are right. that was just a big wobble, but a big wobble like that will change the direction a little bit for sure. man, i just looked at the eastern united states sat. and it looks kinda spooky. is that a front coming in? what effects will that front or whatever it is that's pushing to the southeast have on us on the gulf coast? what if all these weather systems meet up? the one in the boc, and the front coming through and Ida, what if they meet up, what happens then? i am just wondering. i know that all that happening is a very unlikely thing, but just want to know if anyone on here will have a what if conversation
there's been speculation all day about that .. honestly? we don't know .. could intensify to some degree or it could just rip poor ida to pieces and spread rain inland ... again we really dont know
Thanks man, that's exactly what I'm trying to do. We all don't want to hear it, but we all can't hear that nothing will happen. All the elements are there, even some fo the experts on here say it's possible. Not telling anybody to evacuate, just warning them of the possible situation. Basically people just need to watch what happens first before anything else, best idea right now.
does that thing in the gulf have any circulation, or a chance to become a sub tropical or tropical system? we are currently under a flood watch, is that because of the action in the gulf? i am in SE Louisiana. i am sorry i have alot of questions, but that's why i come here, to learn!
I haven't paid it much attention, last I heard it had potential to bring flooding rains to that area
Not really sure, it's hard to find one at night, tomorrow in the daytime visible, should be easier.
Link
You can even see outflow beginning to the southeast of the blow up.
My thoughts are that this will get better organized.. shear is a difficult issue cause if this gets the midlevel back into her..then she will become a hurricane in 2 days or so...and that shear wont be that big of a problem cause she will be moving in tandam with the shear. Now if that shear increases over 20kts..then she will struggle around 999mb-1002mbs but still a moderate T.S. This is expected to happen, but models on the shearing are all over the place.
All I can say is that she will be from a 50mph T.S. in 2 days in the Yucitan channel to as high as a 85mph hurricane. This why I always preach peeps to watch short term forecasts and dont worry about 5 days out or more on landfalls.
Right now I wish we had 1 thing... RADAR!! lol
Viewing: 1851 - 1901
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index