Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like he had a preview of NHC co-ordinates. His was right on the dot.
I believe they were the NHC coordinates. They were posted on the graphic before a summary report.
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739. CUBWF
Good afternoon. I see it at 16.1 and 83.9
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I don't think IDA's state of Depression will last very long.
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Looks like according to the 5 day track from central La and all of Fla needs to look out.
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Id say confidence is low,..and maybe the white crayon too Ike,..LOL
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8mph is getting along too.

And if she takes some of that angular mo,and puts into forward speed by just 1-2 the next 6.
Runs will go squirley ..
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734. IKE
LOL....

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Quoting jipmg:
15.7N 83.9W, Exactly my thoughts as well. I would say 15.7/83.8 though .1 is neither here nor there though :)
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...

INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Those coordinates look nice too
Looks like he had a preview of NHC co-ordinates. His was right on the dot.
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The 4 PM track has it going almost due east into Tampa. LOL
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Oh well. Almost quitting time. I get to leave my little cubicle and see the world again. Thanks for the interesting dialouge today.
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Neat discussion of shear-affected storms and asymmetrical eyewall behaviors: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=207146
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726. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA DURING THE DAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOW A RATHER ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. NOW THAT IDA IS
OFFSHORE OVER VERY WARM WATERS...THE SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO RE-
INTENSIFY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WHERE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO GET RATHER STRONG BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH COOLER WATERS PRESENT...SO WEAKENING
WILL BE SHOWN AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
SPREAD THAN EARLIER. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID...AND REDUCES
THE INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IDA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...360/7. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW DUE TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER IDA
ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG
RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH
THAT TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THEN TURNING EASTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF EAST. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT IDA WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE QUITE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TRANSITION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT THE LONG RANGE...BUT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 15.7N 83.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 17.9N 84.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.1N 85.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.6N 86.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.5N 85.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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Ida a lil Faster as she seems to be catching her MJO swing again IKE.

A faster solution or 10mph,changes a lot of stuff in the end game...compared to 7 or 6mph.

And for a lotta coast.
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Quoting IKE:
...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
4:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 15.7°N 83.9°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb


Here we go folks...hold on tight.
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723. IKE
Quoting jipmg:
15.7N 83.9W


You got it!
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oh that is a weird track
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Well I think Ida has finally emerged off the coast.
"yummy water" -TS Ida
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720. IKE
...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
4:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 15.7°N 83.9°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
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719. 789
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?
its a long trip more to see tommorow jmo
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i agree.
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Quoting jipmg:
15.7N 83.9W


Those coordinates look nice too
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?


New POD has them there at 10 AM EST tomorrow morning.
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Well I think Ida has finally emerged off the coast.
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Let's see how fast Miss Ida can get her sea leg's back after being a Landlubber for a day..
Im betting by 10pm,..things will be interesting once again..

And then after midnight CDT, the 06Z Runs should be a lil clearer.

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?


They didn't want to miss happy hour.
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15.7 83.5
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711. IKE
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?


Interesting...it's close to those coordinates now.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?
Because it was still expected to be over land until Saturday.
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709. jipmg
15.7N 83.9W
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?


They thought she would still be on land or near it.
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It's not just the dunes' demise. They get rid of mangroves and put up seawalls.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yes. It is a shame that the barriers no longer serve their natural purpose.

Remember that barrier islands in their natural form protect the mainland from high surf and surge... but when the dunes are bulldozed and high rises go up, good bye natural protection.
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NEXSAT GOM and Western Caribbean Viz Loop
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Looks like the shear is effecting the Northern Bands

Blog Update

AOI

AOI

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Good Afternoon. Although Ida is under about 25 knots of shear, she has expended.
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96E has a nice swirl around it also.. surprised
no one mentioning it.
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

Why are they waiting until tomorrow afternoon to fly a plane into Ida?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I doubt it will be at 4, but definitely by 10.


Yeah that's what I think too.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


This guy?? Link

I've had him bookmarked since it happened. lol

Classic...
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Quoting Patrap:
The AVN also shows higher tops Building in the right front Semi Circle.

yeah lets hope its not the devil with a blue dress on
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698. IKE
Quoting IKE:
I see the center now near 16.2N and 84.2W.


Maybe just south of those points...closer to 16N.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I think it may be upgraded in a few hours.
I doubt it will be at 4, but definitely by 10.
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I have the center at 15.6N 84W
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
As far as I can tell we're looking at a tropical storm again.


I think it may be upgraded in a few hours.
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The AVN also shows higher tops Building in the right front Semi Circle.

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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I don't get how/why that image so messed up. The slug at the bottom says NOAA base imagery, Clouds: NERC Weather Station, Univ. of Dundee.
Someone drinkin' too much out of Islands' drink that was mentioned earlier.
Now I do see copyright of Inaccuweather on some other images...

So besides here, where DO you all get your info? Besides NOAA radios, of course. Are local radio/tv stations okay?
Don't go by local. I usually come here, NHC and the EOC at the fire station since they get their alerts from NHC before we do. Daughter and one son are both fire fighters.
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As far as I can tell we're looking at a tropical storm again.
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Quoting btwntx08:

read patrap's post 666


Oh, that's an evil one.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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