Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jrweatherman:
Yes but the west coast would feel any real effects if there are any not the east coast. NHC reduces it to 35mph well off the coast.
depends on the type of situation that pans out. A solid tropical system would be likely to only affect the west coast, while a squall line sort of situation would affect the entire state. Either are possible at this point.
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Look for Hurricane Ida by noon tomorrow, jmo.
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Stumbled across a neato radar loop of nothing-to-Humberto: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/Humberto/HumbertoRadarFast.gif
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Quoting hunkerdown:
keep in mind thats what was initially said of Wilma too. Now I am not saying this will be anything Wilma-like or having the potential to be, but...
That is true, but it will most likely interact with that trough, and that will prohibit it from becoming a hurricane even though it is warm waters. You never know, though.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know this is off topic but I am proud of them both but especially my daughter as she was the first female fire fighter in the Cayman Islands and has now risen to the rank of Fire Inspector and Arson Investigator. One other son is a finish carpenter and did a lot of the work at the Ritz-Carlton. Still don't feel too good about Ida inching closer to us and afraid of RI in the area she is in.
Does it still look like its going more East than North?
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it seems as if the COC has hit open water again and the storm is re-organizing. I wouldn't be to shocked to see it quickly regain some intensity. I'm hoping Ida throws some moisture my way to the Fl Keys
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Okay Ida's center is definitely back under convection.
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782. beell
That part is pretty interesting also.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16720
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If you show what you wrote to JFV, he will have a heart-attcack. I on the other hand live in Miami and is not planning to shutter up for IDA. All she is really is going to be is a TS.
keep in mind thats what was initially said of Wilma too. Now I am not saying this will be anything Wilma-like or having the potential to be, but...
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The wind direction from between Roatan and Guanaja say Ida's circulation center is well offshore...more than we thought? More obs will tell...


(Full size, click!)
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779. IKE
This should be interesting to follow.

I don't think it will make it all the way to the panhandle, but I could be wrong.


Quoting stormhank:
they say in dicussion large wind field possible would that affect panhandle of fla also??


Yes....

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
778. jipmg
I am afraid of what will happen tonight, its over those VERY WARM waters and its potentially going to re organize itself over DMIN at the surface, then able to erupt at DMAX.
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Looks likes a new center maybe forming under the strongest convection to me near 16.1/83.5, could be my eyes playing tricks on me though.
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THE SEASON IS OVER.. we are talking baseball?
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Excellent! Hats off!
I know this is off topic but I am proud of them both but especially my daughter as she was the first female fire fighter in the Cayman Islands and has now risen to the rank of Fire Inspector and Arson Investigator. One other son is a finish carpenter and did a lot of the work at the Ritz-Carlton. Still don't feel too good about Ida inching closer to us and afraid of RI in the area she is in.
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Ida's center is under convection again
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they say in dicussion large wind field possible would that affect panhandle of fla also??
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771. beell
Quoting hunkerdown:
wants no part of IKE


Gotta be!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16720
Quoting Drakoen:


Very hard turn and if the trend continues with the models that turn maybe become south of due east. The farther north Ida get's into the GOM the more likely it would make extratropical transition. If it took the southern portion of the cone the more likely it would remain a tropical cyclone. Also whether or not transition occurs will depend on the strength of Ida since a tropical storm as forecasted would be more susceptible to that transition.
If you show what you wrote to JFV, he will have a heart-attcack. I on the other hand live in Miami and is not planning to shutter up for IDA. All she is really is going to be is a TS.
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Coastal Flood Watch Se. Louisiana

Statement as of 12:23 PM CST on November 06, 2009



... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday
morning...

Tides are expected to continue increasing to abnormally high
levels and persist at higher levels during the weekend and into
early next week. These higher than normal tide levels are being
driven by a combination of strong easterly winds and increased
wave action. These conditions will continue through the weekend
and into early next week.

Interests along the coast and on the tidal lakes outside the
hurricane levee protection systems should closely monitor the
situation. Also interests along lower reaches of rivers and
streams that drain into the tidal lakes should be mindful of
rising water levels due to tidal effects.

Residents and interests along the coast are urged to make
preparations for moderate to significant inundation that may last
for 2 to 3 days as tides rise to 3 to 4 feet above normal at
times.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I don't hear moaning about this boring season anymore.
they are too busy pulling the crow's feathers out of their teeth
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season is over people, go home!

(maybe I should have used all caps for this one, so I could fit in...)
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Yes but the west coast would feel any real effects if there are any not the east coast. NHC reduces it to 35mph well off the coast.
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I don't hear moaning about this boring season anymore.
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Quoting IKE:


Sure is...I hadn't noticed that and not sure I've ever seen that before.

WeatherStudent may put his shutters up.


Shhhhh...last time he and his hurricane-proof shower curtain were mentioned the result was "Portlight2". Let's not go there again! ;-)

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C and West GOM Pressure Falls are occurring,and Buoy reports are going to tell a lot the next 24 on that situ.




Here's a good Link,NDBC
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Quoting MrstormX:
Is the center relocating under the convection?
Sure
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Is the center relocating under the convection?
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Quoting beell:
Note the hard right turn...
Quoting beell:
Note the hard right turn...


Very hard turn and if the trend continues with the models that turn maybe become south of due east. The farther north Ida get's into the GOM the more likely it would make extratropical transition. If it took the southern portion of the cone the more likely it would remain a tropical cyclone. Also whether or not transition occurs will depend on the strength of Ida since a tropical storm as forecasted would be more susceptible to that transition.
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the NHC predicts Ida will become extropical in the gulf? why is that
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Quoting IKE:


Sure is...I hadn't noticed that and not sure I've ever seen that before.

WeatherStudent may put his shutters up.
WS is probably already hiding under his mattress in the bathroom tub.
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Would be nice if the send a GIV to take some early samples.
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This is quite exciting!!
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Quoting beell:
Note the hard right turn...
wants no part of IKE
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753. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Entire state of Florida in the cone


Sure is...I hadn't noticed that and not sure I've ever seen that before.

WeatherStudent may put his shutters up.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG
RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH
THAT TROUGH.
....

Most interesting statement in the discussion, to me.
Watch the strength of the campeche low. If it gets going good enough and generates a trof out ahead of it before Ida arrives then we could be looking at a super energized subtropical derecho.
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Looking at the 4PM cone, looks like Tampa is screwed. But, That cone has been very inpersistant, not time to shutter up, yet.

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Quoting IKE:
LOL....



Still has it as a TD at next forecast point. NO WAY that's right.
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749. beell
Note the hard right turn...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16720
748. jipmg
Anyhow the models turn it to a 65MPH storm up to a 100MPH CAT 2 (GFDL) so anything in between would be something to expect, a weak CAT 1 to strong TS.

Then as it turns a sharp decrease in intensity is forecasted potentially barely a Tropical storm.
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747. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Id say confidence is low,..and maybe the white crayon too Ike,..LOL


lol...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't go by local. I usually come here, NHC and the EOC at the fire station since they get their alerts from NHC before we do. Daughter and one son are both fire fighters.


Excellent! Hats off!
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So the NHC narrowed it down from New Orleans to the Florida Keys. Nice.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting IKE:
LOL....




...looks like the stoopid circle to me.
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743. IKE
THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG
RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH
THAT TROUGH.
....

Most interesting statement in the discussion, to me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Entire state of Florida in the cone
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741. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


You got it!


I feel so good about myself now =D

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like he had a preview of NHC co-ordinates. His was right on the dot.
I believe they were the NHC coordinates. They were posted on the graphic before a summary report.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.