Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Clearwater1:
Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track.
Seems like at least once a year we are in the Bull's eye, and thankfuly we dodge a the bullet. Hope this holds true. Let's just hope Ida dies a quietly in the Gulf before doing anymore damage.


What are you looking at, were not safe.
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here comes the boom,here comes the boom,here comes the boom........
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Quoting beell:
That part is pretty interesting also.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.


Hold on to your toupees!

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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


You are safe based on what exactly? Tampa is right in the middle of the cone


Based on history probably. Charley was supposed to hit here, Fay was supposed to hit here. We've got our blockers up and will deflect any storm. :) Even if the storm made landfall in Tampa, it looks like a TS so I'm not worried. We get t-storms all summer with 60 mph winds and we all survive.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
835. beell
Quoting StormW:


Looking at the updated steering, looks like NHC may have it pegged at the moment.




See post 149!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16926
Quoting portcharlotte:
I am not buying the east turn at the end of the run. Most likely IDA will turn northeast before reaching 85W and cross the Fla. Peninsula. Tampa has never been hit from the west and will not this time. Climatology will bring the storm to south and central Florida from the southwest.


Climatology also states that we almost never get hurricanes making landfall during El Nino seasons; Ida was the 1st since 1925 to do so.

Climatology is nice and all, but when current data conflicts with it, it is not always as useful.
833. LBAR
Please bring lots of rain to Central South and North Carolina, Ida and extra-tropical storm thingy!
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Convection is almost all the way over the center, thats was pretty quick if you ask me.
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298miles of real estate between ida and GCM
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track.
Seems like at least once a year we are in the Bull's eye, and thankfuly we dodge a the bullet. Hope this holds true. Let's just hope Ida dies a quietly in the Gulf before doing anymore damage.


Way too early to rejoice on that one. Revist three days from now and you'll have a much better idea if/where it will affect FL.
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The GOM IR Loop shows the BOC System stealing 96E energy and moisture as well

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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:
Tampa is right in the middle of the cone...how are we safe? I think you are sadly mistaken...or just don't know how to read a map.


No kidding! but if you read the post . . oh never mind. Jeeze!
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Looking at the latest image of Ida, I think that she might become a Hurricane. Good outflow and she is getting larger.

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Quoting Clearwater1:
What my "Tongue in Cheek" post means is that we are always in the Bull's eye, at least once during the hurricane season, but never materizzes. . . . and so on.


and it also means that you are more susceptible to being hit; Tampa will not dodge the bullet every single time

many people thought Central Florida in general was safe from hurricanes and then 2004 came.
Quoting Clearwater1:
Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track.
Seems like at least once a year we are in the Bull's eye, and thankfuly we dodge a the bullet. Hope this holds true. Let's just hope Ida dies a quietly in the Gulf before doing anymore damage.


Are you following the dotted line?

You do realize the whole state of Florida is in the margin or error?
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IDA

IR LOOP

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Tampa is right in the middle of the cone...how are we safe? I think you are sadly mistaken...or just don't know how to read a map.
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I am not buying the east turn at the end of the run. Most likely IDA will turn northeast before reaching 85W and cross the Fla. Peninsula. Tampa has never been hit from the west and will not this time. Climatology will bring the storm to south and central Florida from the southwest.
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Quoting StormW:


Looking at the updated steering, looks like NHC may have it pegged at the moment.



I'm sorry Chief, you must be shaking your head at me.. I "meant" sat sun nov 14-15... after wednesday which general direction do you think it will track...will it track across southern Florida is the root of my question.. weekend of a lifetime coming up in Miami.. sweatin' this thing
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Quoting Burned After Posting:


You are safe based on what exactly?
What my "Tongue in Cheek" post means is that we are always in the Bull's eye, at least once during the hurricane season, but never materizzes. . . . and so on.
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after having discussed with a few of my professors, seems the overwhelming majority are quite confident we see a minimal hurricane crossing the straits before the top gets ripped off as it nears the northern gulf coast. They do note that given the pressure gradients, wind gusts could still approach strong TS strengthe across the northern gomex resulting in some minor beach erosion as Ida goes extra tropical.
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Quoting StormW:


Looking at the updated steering, looks like NHC may have it pegged at the moment.

Looking at the latest steering currents I would say that South-West Florida has the highest likely chance of getting Ida.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Also I think it is interesting to note that in no way does an extra-tropical transition lessen much of the impacts of whatever this system becomes

Personally I feel an extra-tropical storm would be worse for whoever it hits than if Ida was just to stay fully tropical.


The affects would be broader if it were to become an extratropical cyclone but a tropical cyclone would have the ability to focus a stronger core of winds over a smaller area.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track.
Seems like at least once a year we are in the Bull's eye, and thankfuly we dodge a the bullet. Hope this holds true. Let's just hope Ida dies a quietly in the Gulf before doing anymore damage.


You are safe based on what exactly? Tampa is right in the middle of the cone
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Better get the hot sauce ready. LOL
LOL!
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Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track.
Seems like at least once a year we are in the Bull's eye, and thankfuly we dodge a the bullet. Hope this holds true. Let's just hope Ida dies a quietly in the Gulf before doing anymore damage.
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811. CUBWF
Now Ida is pulling better all that energy from 96E and the low off Colombia.Rapid intensification it's not out of the game and she could regane hurricane status by tomorrow midday.
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I have a question, how is Idas' inner structure looking at this time?

Cuz really that is the key in how quickly she can regain strength now that she is over water

From what I see, she held together very well.
For Lower Lafourche and Terrebone Parishes.

Move yer Boats and gear Boys,..

Statement as of 12:23 PM CST on November 06, 2009

... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday
morning...

Tides are expected to continue increasing to abnormally high
levels and persist at higher levels during the weekend and into
early next week. These higher than normal tide levels are being
driven by a combination of strong easterly winds and increased
wave action. These conditions will continue through the weekend
and into early next week.

Interests along the coast and on the tidal lakes outside the
hurricane levee protection systems should closely monitor the
situation. Also interests along lower reaches of rivers and
streams that drain into the tidal lakes should be mindful of
rising water levels due to tidal effects.

Residents and interests along the coast are urged to make
preparations for moderate to significant inundation that may last
for 2 to 3 days as tides rise to 3 to 4 feet above normal at
times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Preparedness actions should
include removal of machinery... vehicles and other movable
property out of areas prone to coastal flooding today. Access
roads into tidal marshes... marinas and area camps are likely to
become inundated and impassible for lengthy periods by Sunday
morning through Tuesday. Some minor inundation may be realized as
early as Saturday morning.

Stay tuned to local TV... radio... NOAA all-hazards radio or the
internet for the latest on this potential coastal flooding
episode. A coastal Flood Warning may be issued for portions of
the coast this weekend or early next week.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Look for Hurricane Ida by noon tomorrow, jmo.
you may be 12 hrs to late if its going to do this it has to be hurricane status or near to it by midnight at the present moment i cannot rule it out expect first convective cycle to commence by 6 pm the six hrs after that are crucial wait watch see is almost over
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If you were some ordinary wishcaster I would just block you. BUT, you are one of the most expirienced people on this blog. I don't think it will become a hurricane at all, but if it does I will eat 6 billion crows if I have to.
Better get the hot sauce ready. LOL
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Quoting jipmg:
I am afraid of what will happen tonight, its over those VERY WARM waters and its potentially going to re organize itself over DMIN at the surface, then able to erupt at DMAX.


It appears that it will try to do a "booming" session during DMIN just as it did when it was NE of Costa Rica. If it continues to display a convective increase tonight then I will have not doubt it will not need DMAX help tomorrow AM to get where it want be strength wise.
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here comes the boom, here comes the boom,here comes the boom,here comes the boom hurricane by 10 pm
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Quoting masonsnana:
Hurricane?? Isn't there a lot of shear in the GOM she has to face????


Ida will not be in the GOM until Sunday afternoon most likely
Quoting stormpetrol:
Look for Hurricane Ida by noon tomorrow, jmo.
If you were some ordinary wishcaster I would just block you. BUT, you are one of the most expirienced people on this blog. I don't think it will become a hurricane at all, but if it does I will eat 6 billion crows if I have to.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Very hard turn and if the trend continues with the models that turn maybe become south of due east. The farther north Ida get's into the GOM the more likely it would make extratropical transition. If it took the southern portion of the cone the more likely it would remain a tropical cyclone. Also whether or not transition occurs will depend on the strength of Ida since a tropical storm as forecasted would be more susceptible to that transition.


Also I think it is interesting to note that in no way does an extra-tropical transition lessen much of the impacts of whatever this system becomes

Personally I feel an extra-tropical storm would be worse for whoever it hits than if Ida was just to stay fully tropical.
Quoting masonsnana:
Hurricane?? Isn't there a lot of shear in the GOM she has to face????
She won't be in the GOM by tomorrow still in the very hot Caribbean and as long as she is there don't underestimate.
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797. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


Very hard turn and if the trend continues with the models that turn maybe become south of due east. The farther north Ida get's into the GOM the more likely it would make extratropical transition. If it took the southern portion of the cone the more likely it would remain a tropical cyclone. Also whether or not transition occurs will depend on the strength of Ida since a tropical storm as forecasted would be more susceptible to that transition.


Given the track of the mid-level trough as discussed earier, S of E is correct. As well as the transition to Ex-due to very strong upper level southwesterlies and the baroclinic "front" dragging along with the 500mb trough.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16926
Chief.. any thoughts on where it might be sat-sun?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Look for Hurricane Ida by noon tomorrow, jmo.
Hurricane?? Isn't there a lot of shear in the GOM she has to face????
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794. jipmg
Quoting beell:
That part is pretty interesting also.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.


I guess very strong winds over the gulf states
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Buoy Station 42001 (LLNR 1400) - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts

Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts

Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft

Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec

Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.7 sec

Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.06 in

Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )

Air Temperature Air Temperature
ATMP): 76.5 °F


Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks likes a new center maybe forming under the strongest convection to me near 16.1/83.5, could be my eyes playing tricks on me though.


I agree with that observation... Shortwave depicts it quite nicely.
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Does it still look like its going more East than North?
Slightly.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
Yes but the west coast would feel any real effects if there are any not the east coast. NHC reduces it to 35mph well off the coast.
depends on the type of situation that pans out. A solid tropical system would be likely to only affect the west coast, while a squall line sort of situation would affect the entire state. Either are possible at this point.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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