Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Weather456,
Do you see a Perfect Storm setting up here? Or is it just me..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Quoting NRAamy:
if I just surround myself in a My Little Pony shower curtain, will that be sufficient?


Better make it Transformers for extra protection just in case lol
Quoting Clearwater1:
I don't think any called me an idiot. . . but you.

Actually technically I did not call you one either. But everyone was thinking it, including me, but I did not say it. Clearly people were saying they did not know where you had interpreted that from the NHC advisory. I'm done with this, its rediculous and I am not wasting any more time on you.
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Quoting NRAamy:
863. TampaFLUSA 1:26 PM PST on November 06, 2009
I am going to be zinged for this one, but it seems where people live on this site is where it will hit...Port Charlotte, Galveston, Louisiana...so on, just an observation


I live in Southern Calif...should I board up my windows?
lmao
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if I just surround myself in a My Little Pony shower curtain, will that be sufficient?
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<

I live in Southern Calif...should I board up my windows?



Nah. Prolly oughta move.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


That might have happened then this is now and you never know, talking like that youll end up in the middle of it.


No problem my friend ...we are in a severe drought here and this would save many resisents from paying top dollar for new wells (mmany of us have well systems). WWE NEED THE RAIN AND A NORMAL HAPPENING LIKE A TROPICAL STORM IS WHAT BALANCES OUR RAIN TOTALS HERE. SO IN OTHER WORDS A $1200 well bill would be relieved by a 60 or 70 mph storm or even a Cat1. We went through a cat5 here so anything less is just a breeze. Digest that
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Quoting Weather456:
Visible images reveal the center moving faster than the area of convection, in other words the center is moving into the area of deep convection. If shear exists its not having an impact on Ida's central core.


Agree
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Mississippi

Flood Warning:
Attala, Holmes

Flood Advisory:
Jefferson, Warren, Bolivar, Washington, Issaquena, Claiborne, Wilkinson, Adams

Coastal Flood Watch:
Hancock, Harrison, Jackson
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Ivan or Ike? Or both?
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Quoting NRAamy:
863. TampaFLUSA 1:26 PM PST on November 06, 2009
I am going to be zinged for this one, but it seems where people live on this site is where it will hit...Port Charlotte, Galveston, Louisiana...so on, just an observation


I live in Southern Calif...should I board up my windows?

He...lol...maybe...El Nino has been know to throw a few strong storms your way.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
If you look at the hits Tampa is midway between the numerous hits in the big bend and and hits over south Florida. South and Central Florida south of Tampa will experience this storm in a tropical way not extratropical.


NHC isn't sure how ida will interact with the trough, its interly possible that Ida's still fully tropical at landfall.
The set up is interesting, you have 96E, Ida, and what might be a sub-tropical low in the BOC. Its a very complex situation.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


When do you expect Ida to be upgraded to TS?


soon, probably at or before 5am Saturday if the current trend continues.

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Not Pensacola. The last last "I" storm in the gulf wore out the welcome for all storms.
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Quoting KENMEX:
Hi
we live in Cancun - what can we expect?
Thanks all you clever people in advance.
Its been raining here for days !!!


tropical storm conditions...gusty winds, choppy seas and heavy rains. Not a good day for beach.
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Well I work for FPL (Florida Power and Light, for out of staters), if we run into any significant power outages from Ida, (not saying she'll be that strong, but you never know) We go into storm mode. Should be interesting to see how strong she gets b4 she starts getting sheared.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
Quoting Weather456:
Expect advisories to go up along the Yucatan later on Saturday



Do you expect Ida to be upgraded to TS at the 10 PM advisory?
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Texas
Flood Warning:
Angelina, Polk, Cass, Marion, Freestone, Bowie, Upshur, Anderson, Smith, Wood, Gregg, Leon, Harrison, Panola, Rusk, Cherokee, Franklin, Morris, Red River, Titus, San Jacinto, Houston, Trinity, Walker, Orange, Tyler, Jasper, Chambers, Liberty, Newton, Jefferson, Nacogdoches, San Augustine, Shelby
Coastal Flood Statement:
Aransas, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Galveston, Harris, Jefferson, Kleberg, Matagorda, Nueces, Orange, Refugio, San Patricio
Coastal Flood Watch:
Coastal Cameron, Coastal Willacy, Kenedy
Public Information Statement:
Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Donley, Gray, Hansford, Hartley, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Moore, Ochiltree, Oldham, Potter, Randall, Roberts, Sherman, Wheeler
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Visible images reveal the center moving faster than the area of convection, in other words the center is moving into the area of deep convection. If shear exists its not having an impact on Ida's central core.
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Quoting KENMEX:
Hi
we live in Cancun - what can we expect?
Thanks all you clever people in advance.
Its been raining here for days !!!


clever? you sure you got the right site? lol

j/k

according to the NHC track, Ida comes close to you in about 48 hours with winds of 60mph
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I did read the post. and now you have about 4-5 people saying your an idiot because it read "Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track"
I don't think any called me an idiot. . . but you.
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863. TampaFLUSA 1:26 PM PST on November 06, 2009
I am going to be zinged for this one, but it seems where people live on this site is where it will hit...Port Charlotte, Galveston, Louisiana...so on, just an observation


I live in Southern Calif...should I board up my windows?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Louisiana Flood Watches and Warnings,By Parish


Flood Warning:
Caldwell, Ouachita, Bienville, Union, Bossier, Webster, Red River, Grant, Natchitoches, Franklin, Caddo, East Baton Rouge, Rapides, De Soto, St. Mary, Calcasieu, La Salle, Winn, Beauregard, Avoyelles, Vernon, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana, Allen, Catahoula, Concordia, Jefferson Davis
Flood Advisory:
Tensas, Concordia, East Carroll, Madison
Coastal Flood Watch:
Ascension, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower Terrebonne, Orleans, St. Charles, St. James, St. John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Upper Jefferson, Upper St. Bernard
Coastal Flood Statement:
Cameron, Iberia, Lower St. Martin, St. Mary, Vermilion
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Quoting StormW:


I don't have one.
Lost it in another storm ? Sorry, that wasn't nice but couldn't resist. LOL
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Hi
we live in Cancun - what can we expect?
Thanks all you clever people in advance.
Its been raining here for days !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
I am going to be zinged for this one, but it seems where people live on this site is where it will hit...Port Charlotte, Galveston, Louisiana...so on, just an observation.


I agree with you, some make it look so obvious
lol
I am going to be zinged for this one, but it seems where people live on this site is where it will hit...Port Charlotte, Galveston, Louisiana...so on, just an observation.
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862. beell
Quoting tornadofan:


Hold on to your toupees!



I won't be wearing a skirt either!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16591
If you look at the hits Tampa is midway between the numerous hits in the big bend and and hits over south Florida. South and Central Florida south of Tampa will experience this storm in a tropical way not extratropical.
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Expect advisories to go up along the Yucatan later on Saturday

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Quoting Clearwater1:
Thank you cane, you must have read my post in it's entirety


Yeah our summer storms here in Tampa are just as crazy as a TS
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Thank you cane, you must have read my post in it's entirety


Plus I live in Tampa so I know exactly what you mean!
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Quoting Clearwater1:


No kidding! but if you read the post . . oh never mind. Jeeze!

I did read the post. and now you have about 4-5 people saying your an idiot because it read "Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track"
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Quoting tornadofan:


Hold on to your toupees!



I lost my last one during the last hurricane lol

Insurance wouldn't replace it :(
854. IKE
Tallahassee....SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER. OUR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT WARMER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THE GUIDANCE HAS COME UP A FEW DEGREES...PERHAPS DUE
TO THE SURFACE WINDS NOT BEING COMPLETELY CALM AND/OR INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF IDA AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEY BOTH SHOW
WHAT WILL PROBABLY BECOME TROPICAL STORM IDA AGAIN BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...AND
TRANSITIONING TO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. IN FACT THE F.S.U. CYCLONE
PHASE DIAGRAM FOR THE GFS 12 UTC GFS SHOWS IDA EVENTUALLY BECOMING
COLD CORE IN THE GULF. ALTHOUGH IDA POSES LITTLE IF ANY DIRECT
THREAT TO OUR AREA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WILL STILL LIKELY
AFFECT US AS A NON- TROPICAL LOW WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ON MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
DRAWS CLOSER...BUT THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH THIS REGION UNTIL TUESDAY.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You are safe based on what exactly? Tampa is right in the middle of the cone


With a system that far out, when was the last time one hit the predicted cone center? Actually with Tampa 'cross haired', I'm comforted!

BTW, I live in west Bradenton.
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The setup of the potential Perfect Storm looks good. You have 96E swirling on the bottom, Ida re-strengthening to the right, and an extratropical low forming in the BOC. Folks, this looks serious, the most strangest phenomenom since 1991, 18 years to be exact.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Quoting Cane Warning:


Based on history probably. Charley was supposed to hit here, Fay was supposed to hit here. We've got our blockers up and will deflect any storm. :) Even if the storm made landfall in Tampa, it looks like a TS so I'm not worried. We get t-storms all summer with 60 mph winds and we all survive.
Thank you cane, you must have read my post in it's entirety
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Quoting portcharlotte:


Tampa is always between the dynamics to the north and south. It's almost a col zone safe as a can be. NHC had the same track on a Gulf storm in November years ago and it ended up crossing south Florida. Even with the ridge the WESTERLIES ARE TO CLOSE and the storm recurves before the westerlies. Hurricane Handbook 101


That might have happened then this is now and you never know, talking like that youll end up in the middle of it.
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Ida emerged 12 hrs earlier...close to 24 hrs earlier from the 1st advisory.
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GOM WV Loop shows that one well,and they moving floaters like checkers right now.


I have a Bad feeling ..things ,will and usually do trend bad when all this happens,their is too much untapped deep SST's under Ida and for at least another good 36hrs.


But this BOC /GOM Player holds a lotta cards in the Future of a lotta coastline.
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Anyone know if Hurricane Hunters are still flying into Ida?
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
298miles of real estate between ida and GCM
At this point but won't take much to close the gap. Hope not.
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Quoting Clearwater1:


No kidding! but if you read the post . . oh never mind. Jeeze!


Again the longer your area goes without a hit, usually the worse it is when you get one. Tampa is not protected by any means; just very lucky

As I said before, many thought East Central Florida was immune to hurricanes; ah they never hit here, then 2004 happened and it scared some people straight.
Quoting Patrap:
The GOM IR Loop shows the BOC System stealing 96E energy and moisture as well



Steeling from what, the Mexicans? Doesn't seem to be doing jack squat to Ida, other than maybe helping her north a bit quicker...
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Quoting Patrap:
The GOM IR Loop shows the BOC System stealing 96E energy and moisture as well

Lots of moisture in the gulf....Ida getting into the pic, looking very good.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:
Tampa is right in the middle of the cone...how are we safe? I think you are sadly mistaken...or just don't know how to read a map.


Tampa is always between the dynamics to the north and south. It's almost a col zone safe as a can be. NHC had the same track on a Gulf storm in November years ago and it ended up crossing south Florida. Even with the ridge the WESTERLIES ARE TO CLOSE and the storm recurves before the westerlies. Hurricane Handbook 101
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Glad Tampa Bay area is safe. . . . Per the 4 PM NHC track.
Seems like at least once a year we are in the Bull's eye, and thankfuly we dodge a the bullet. Hope this holds true. Let's just hope Ida dies a quietly in the Gulf before doing anymore damage.


What are you looking at, were not safe.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.