Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


slight shear? not enough to even bring it up

Ida is not lopsided due to shear

didnt say it was lopsided due to shear. I agree with your statement as to why THAT is, disagree with you saying there was no shear. There is it's just light.
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Quoting aquak9:
Kerry's not StormTop.

StormTop/stormno is now Tacoman.

well kerry was on at some point talking bout how he/she and stormtop were collaborating and that Gustav? was going to destroy new orleans if I recall ...
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Couple of observations: where can you be sure a storm won't go? the first set of runs on the models.

How fast do things change? read the blog this morning - said, hm not much to worry about my neck of the woods, on the way home tonight news said Ida will impact south florida tues night weds am. Just not sure in what form.

so here I am - reading and watching again!
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Quoting Weather456:


I have not even seen your comment. You are addressing or attacking me for something I said that was not related to you.
Yea, I noticed that after my post posted. Your name showed up as you were resonding to previous comments. I certainly wasn't attacking you and my post wasn't even directed at you. I have the utmost respect for you as a forecaster. Best we have here, as far as I'm concerned.
.
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My post was directed at the others on the blog who took offense at my relaying what the NHC had to say.
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Quoting SouthALWX:


have to disagree. WV imagery clearly shows some slight SW wind shear.


slight shear? not enough to even bring it up

Ida is not lopsided due to shear

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I agree, as I said earlier I think the lopsided appearance is due to the fact that the northern side has gotten a chance to flare up since last night because it was over water, while the south side is still being impacted by land; so it has not had a chance to build convection

It looks sheared but is not due to land interaction

have to disagree. WV imagery clearly shows some slight SW wind shear.
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1134. Patrap
wunderground severe page
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1133. amd
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I agree, as I said earlier I think the lopsided appearance is due to the fact that the northern side has gotten a chance to flare up since last night because it was over water, while the south side is still being impacted by land; so it has not had a chance to build convection

It looks sheared but is not due to land interaction


the sw side of Ida was heavily impacted by land interaction, especially since (as I suspect) drier air from the mountain slope was forced into Ida's core on the SW side. It will take a few hours for all of that to mix out.
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1132. aquak9
Kerry's not StormTop.

StormTop/stormno is now Tacoman.
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18Z GFDL stalls Ida in the southern GOM.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
Quoting amd:
I'm not sure whether shear is impacting Ida currently. Ida's appearance could be a bit disheveled currently because the inner core is in the process of redeveloping.

If there was sw shear, most of the convection would be ne of the coc, not nw of the coc.

Also, the Dvorak numbers are crap, to put it mildly. They are thinking the storm is weakening despite increased convection near the coc, and they initialized the intensity of Ida as it left Honduras at 60 kts + (instead of the NHC's advisory of 30 kts).




not only that but some are being fooled by the lack of convection to the south.

The lack of convection to the south is the downslope wind on the leeward side of the mountains over Honduras. They are usually dry winds.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1129. Patrap
Ida isnt going to be the troublemaker..The BOC /GOm event has flood watches already up for Half the GOM west.
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Quoting Dakster:


You are not kidding... If I lived in the Cayman's I'd be going crazy right now. I mean, it looks like Ida is going directly there and with those warm waters, well you all know the rest.

Although, NOLA folks better watch out too, this could be another "Katrina" in the making. I wonder how the evac will be handled today vs. 2005, if that scenario played out.

Then again, according to some here, Ida, Andrew's evil, younger sister could roar through South Florida....

Hopefully, the above are only conjecture as Ida falls apart after exiting Central America.

I guess we shall see, tomorrow I base alot of my preparedness by what Ida looks like and projected path by the NHC, Dr. Masters, and a select group of fellow bloggers, if they happen to disagree.
I hope your making a joke ,I tried to get a early flight.not because im afraid I live in N.C. and we are used to storms but nobody tells you anything on this Island.
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Quoting Weather456:


If you look at a satellite map of Ida, you notice the heavy convection curves in a band...if you fit this to spiral curve you can measure how much degrees the arc goes around...measured in 10ths.

So the curve band goes around 6/10ths or 0.60 which yields a T number of 3.7 and after considerations are taken, you have a T number of 3.2

MD is the color code you see on dvorak gray images and it stands for medium gray.

3.2 is about 50 knots.

For some reason, the ADT thinks Ida is weakening (WEAKENING FLAG: ON) but ADT is partly computer generated and so a human would be able to discern for themselves that Ida is not weakening.


Nice explanation - thanks
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ignore kerry. If I recall that's Stormtop/stormno/ whoever else he goes as ... aka crazy person
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Quoting amd:
I'm not sure whether shear is impacting Ida currently. Ida's appearance could be a bit disheveled currently because the inner core is in the process of redeveloping.

If there was sw shear, most of the convection would be ne of the coc, not nw of the coc.

Also, the Dvorak numbers are crap, to put it mildly. They are thinking the storm is weakening despite increased convection near the coc, and they initialized the intensity of Ida as it left Honduras at 60 kts + (instead of the NHC's advisory of 30 kts).



I agree, as I said earlier I think the lopsided appearance is due to the fact that the northern side has gotten a chance to flare up since last night because it was over water, while the south side is still being impacted by land; so it has not had a chance to build convection

It looks sheared but is not due to land interaction
Some Extratropical rain would be welcome here in SoFla .
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1123. Patrap
Evac..NOLA?
Gimmee a Break,,the Saints Host the Panthers Sunday at 3 CDT..LOL


NOLA emptied for Gustav in like a day last August 30.,..so no ..no Evacs for us in 2009.

Cept maybe to Miami in Feb 2010..!
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Any thoughts on the Cayman Islands. Last few frams are looking more east .


Severe Weather

In the case of severe weather potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, local bulletins are based on information issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. If no land is threatened, the Center issues bulletins every six hours. It issues bulletins every three hours if land is threatened, and every two hours if the US is threatened and the storm is being picked up by US land-based radar. Cayman's Met Service releases a bulletin to local media within 15 minutes of receiving information from the National Hurricane Center. The Met service also issues bulletins more frequently if conditions warrant. These bulletins are posted on this site, also. The tracking map carried on this site is also immediately updated with this information by the Met Service. The local Meteorological Service then adds information on local weather conditions in and around the Cayman Islands. The Chairman of Cayman's National Hurricane Committee is responsible for declaring all or any of the three islands to be under an Alert, Watch or Warning. Once the declaration has been made, the local Met Service issues bulletins on the following schedule:

Alert: "Take Precautions"

In the early stages of the formation of potentially severe weather that could affect the Caribbean, the Met Service issues bulletins every six hours at 4am, 10am, 4pm, and 10pm.

Watch: "Batten Down"

The Met Service issues bulletins every three hours at 1am, 4am, 7am, 10am, 1pm, 4pm, 7pm, and 10pm.

Warning: "Take Refuge"

Bulletins are issued every two hours, on even-numbered hours, 2, 4, 6, etc.

These times follow approximately the release of information by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

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1121. tino427
is already turning due east somewhat,I don"t believe that this storm would be extratropical in the long range due to that easterly movement..but rather a category 2 hurricane..
Member Since: November 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
Quoting Dakster:


You are not kidding... If I lived in the Cayman's I'd be going crazy right now. I mean, it looks like Ida is going directly there and with those warm waters, well you all know the rest.

Although, NOLA folks better watch out too, this could be another "Katrina" in the making. I wonder how the evac will be handled today vs. 2005, if that scenario played out.

Then again, according to some here, Ida, Andrew's evil, younger sister could roar through South Florida....

Hopefully, the above are only conjecture as Ida falls apart after exiting Central America.

I guess we shall see, tomorrow I base alot of my preparedness by what Ida looks like and projected path by the NHC, Dr. Masters, and a select group of fellow bloggers, if they happen to disagree.
I think all of us here in Cayman are kinda on pins right now hoping she stays away from us but past experience teaches us that anything is possible with a hurricane that dorms in the western Caribbean.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
On visual sat. loop, looks like she is right on nhc track.
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Local met. in WPB said a rain maker for us, not a big wind event.
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1117. flsky
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Warning! Ida will become a very dangerous hurricane before making landfall as a most extreme hurricane along the east central Fla.coast. Begin preparations now.

Evidence of your concerns please.
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Quoting Weather456:


lol dude...stop reading my mind incorrectly.


You're thinking about... tacos...

or perhaps thats me XD
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1115. amd
I'm not sure whether shear is impacting Ida currently. Ida's appearance could be a bit disheveled currently because the inner core is in the process of redeveloping.

If there was sw shear, most of the convection would be ne of the coc, not nw of the coc.

Also, the Dvorak numbers are crap, to put it mildly. They are thinking the storm is weakening despite increased convection near the coc, and they initialized the intensity of Ida as it left Honduras at 60 kts + (instead of the NHC's advisory of 30 kts).

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Quoting Dakster:


You are not kidding... If I lived in the Cayman's I'd be going crazy right now. I mean, it looks like Ida is going directly there and with those warm waters, well you all know the rest.

Although, NOLA folks better watch out too, this could be another "Katrina" in the making. I wonder how the evac will be handled today vs. 2005, if that scenario played out.

Then again, according to some here, Ida, Andrew's evil, younger sister could roar through South Florida....

Hopefully, the above are only conjecture as Ida falls apart after exiting Central America.

I guess we shall see, tomorrow I base alot of my preparedness by what Ida looks like and projected path by the NHC, Dr. Masters, and a select group of fellow bloggers, if they happen to disagree.
Katrina in the making?? water temps are way too cool in northern gulf and Ida is not forecast to go that way.
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Quoting Dakster:


You are not kidding... If I lived in the Cayman's I'd be going crazy right now. I mean, it looks like Ida is going directly there and with those warm waters, well you all know the rest.

Although, NOLA folks better watch out too, this could be another "Katrina" in the making. I wonder how the evac will be handled today vs. 2005, if that scenario played out.

Then again, according to some here, Ida, Andrew's evil, younger sister could roar through South Florida....

Hopefully, the above are only conjecture as Ida falls apart after exiting Central America.

I guess we shall see, tomorrow I base alot of my preparedness by what Ida looks like and projected path by the NHC, Dr. Masters, and a select group of fellow bloggers, if they happen to disagree.

wow .. that's ...where do you get that idea? I've not seen any data pointing to that outcome AT ALL. ....=/
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Been living here in the southeast for over 10 years, forecasting weather professionally on TV for 15. Regardless of a landfalling storm (tropical or subtropical) rain is going to be the biggest threat from Ida. There is going to be an incredible fetch of moisture feeding into the eastern Gulf states. Florida will remain on the right side of Ida for an extended amount of time and flooding will remain a concern through the middle of next week. Believe it or not, best case scenario right now for Florida would be a fast moving tropical storm that gets caught up in the westerlies and ejects northeast into the open Atlantic. Still way too many variables for a precse forecast.
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1111. Dakster
Quoting 786:
from the satellite it looks like Grand Cayman should be under some serious rain...gotta tell you I am still waiting for a drop!


You are not kidding... If I lived in the Cayman's I'd be going crazy right now. I mean, it looks like Ida is going directly there and with those warm waters, well you all know the rest.

Although, NOLA folks better watch out too, this could be another "Katrina" in the making. I wonder how the evac will be handled today vs. 2005, if that scenario played out.

Then again, according to some here, Ida, Andrew's evil, younger sister could roar through South Florida....

Hopefully, the above are only conjecture as Ida falls apart after exiting Central America.

I guess we shall see, tomorrow I base alot of my preparedness by what Ida looks like and projected path by the NHC, Dr. Masters, and a select group of fellow bloggers, if they happen to disagree.
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1110. centex
I must admit, hard to see W component.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:

A reason.
I'm not giving my own opinion. I'm giving the NHC's opinion. My reason is what the NHC is currently saying. Take a look at the wind probability chart. I can't help it if the blog doesn't like a downcast.
.
.
The NHC is not always right. This is not an exact science. But they are right more often than not. As always, we watch and wait.


I have not even seen your comment. You are addressing or attacking me for something I said that was not related to you.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Ida is not being sheared, what you are seeing is fanning out of clouds due to good outflow to the north; southern side is void of much convection due to land impacts. The system may look sheared, but it is not.

actually, on WV imagery there is some light shear from SW to NE... it's almost negligible but it's there and might prevent RI at best but really the anticyclonic envelope extends further north and if the anticyclone continues to migrate the SW shear will become even less of an issue. At some point, though, if the models are correct we'll see a nice trough rip Ida's head straight off =) Could reach hurricane strength by then especially if that anticyclone does, in fact, follow ida northward. ( Btw look at what shear did to 96e? ... Ida had a close call but the UL causing the amplification of the upper ridge down stream seems to be far enough west to be more beneficial than harmful. we'll see.
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Quoting Weather456:


If you look at a satellite map of Ida, you notice the heavy convection curves in a band...if you fit this to spiral curve you can measure how much degrees the arc goes around...measured in 10ths.

So the curve band goes around 6/10ths or 0.60 which yields a T number of 3.7 and after considerations are taken, you have a T number of 3.2

MD is the color code you see on dvorak gray images and it stands for medium gray.

3.2 is about 50 knots.

For some reason, the ADT thinks Ida is weakening (WEAKENING FLAG: ON) but ADT is partly computer generated and so a human would be able to discern for themselves that Ida is not weakening.
Thanks again for your explanation and patience.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
1106. 786
from the satellite it looks like Grand Cayman should be under some serious rain...gotta tell you I am still waiting for a drop!
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Quoting tornadofan:


Hmmm... seems sheared to me. We shall see. Been wrong before (even today).


Ida is not being sheared, what you are seeing is fanning out of clouds due to good outflow to the north; southern side is void of much convection due to land impacts. The system may look sheared, but it is not.
Quoting Weather456:
Don't ask yourself if the storm will hit you...ask yourself if you are prepared if the storm hits you.


The JFK of Weather Underground
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1103. Dakster
Quoting Weather456:
Don't ask yourself if the storm will hit you...ask yourself if you are prepared if the storm hits you.


Good advice.... I fear that I will get flamed for this, but here goes.

I'm topping the gas tanks off the vehicles (I'm on E anyways), filling the gas cans for the generator, chlorine jugs for the pool, cleaning up the yard debris tomorrow, and checking the Ahh-Sh!@# it hit/aftermath supplies are still good. It will take all of 15 minutes to do almost all of this NOW. (The yard will take a little longer) and it will take a whole day to do it IF Ida threatens. Nothing I am doing isn't stuff I will eventually need/use...
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Quoting SouthALWX:

dont think so. actually looking amazing considering time over water versus 30 hours or so overland.


Hmmm... seems sheared to me. We shall see. Been wrong before (even today).
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
Quoting Weather456:


not meant for anyone here. But you know sometimes somebody shows unexpected throw in something without even giving a reason. lol

A reason.
I'm not giving my own opinion. I'm giving the NHC's opinion. My reason is what the NHC is currently saying. Take a look at the wind probability chart. I can't help it if the blog doesn't like a downcast.
.
.
The NHC is not always right. This is not an exact science. But they are right more often than not. As always, we watch and wait.
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Would this recent east of north movement tend to move the whole track eastward? And also make it more likely that ida will avoid the Yucatan which means one less possible way to weaken her?
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1099. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting winter123:


he means...



etc...


lol dude...stop reading my mind incorrectly.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Any thoughts on the Cayman Islands. Last few frams are looking more east .
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1096. CUBWF
Quoting winter123:


equawhat? What i'm seeing is all the convection on the north and the SW side is clearing of convection. Usually indicative of shear or dry air... maybe i'm seeing things?

The lack of convection to the sw may be because of land interaction that Ida has been exposed for more than 24 hrs. I'm not an expert and may be wrong. That quadrant will have convection as Ida move far from land. May be Drakoen or weather456 can give it to a better perspective on it.
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Patrap...thanks also for all your info you post! I lurk daily but have no weather smarts at all. I am just in awe of mother nature...one minute so calm & relaxing and the next terrifying. Thanks to all of you for all your information...StormW and others! Also...PortLight, a great organization! If you have not made a donation this year this is the time..only 2 months left for this year 09 donations and Portlight is the place to do it!
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Quoting Weather456:
Alot of things throwing around and nothing of substance.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


What do you mean? lol


he means...

Quoting poknsnok:
looks like some sw shear blowing the storms away from the center
Quoting tornadofan:
Hmmm - is Ida already becoming extratropical?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
As always Cosmic comes on and is a smartypants at the wrong time lol

Quoting xcool:
;


etc...
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
456 or Storm W. Is there any chance of Ida regaining hurricane strength prior to reaching the GOM? Thanks.


before reaching the GOM? Yes I give it a chance.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


What do you mean? lol


not meant for anyone here. But you know sometimes somebody shows unexpected throw in something without even giving a reason. lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
456 or Storm W. Is there any chance of Ida regaining hurricane strength prior to reaching the GOM? Thanks.
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Quoting tornadofan:
Hmmm - is Ida already becoming extratropical?

dont think so. actually looking amazing considering time over water versus 30 hours or so overland.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.