Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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they didnt update the forecast track...
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Quoting Magicchaos:


I think it was called for. The arguing was getting kinda out of hand.

That was about something else...
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2488. bjdsrq
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anyone wanna see JB's take this morn?


Yes please! What's he have to say? He had this right 3 days ago in hindsight. Thx.

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2487. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anyone wanna see JB's take this morn?


Yes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Constructive criticizm acknowledged...Now back to the weather....Thanks,
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Ida up to 60 mph, pressure down to 997 mb.
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2484. bjdsrq
New advisory... 60mph now.
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Anyone wanna see JB's take this morn?
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Hah! First it was developing a cat 1 ahead of the other models, now CHIPS is figuring on a dud. It wants Ida to peter out and stay that way.
Could happen.


From here: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
with details as to what it is. Called Rick in the Pacific very well and has done almost as well, in the Atlantic, as our other intensity models this season.
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...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.9N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

50 knots, just as I expected.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2480. IKE
***everyone hitting F5 on the NHC page***

..IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 17.9N 84.1W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 17.9°N 84.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
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At this rate, Ida could be a weak hurricane before it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, shear is not there right now. ---

Hurricane by end of the day by NHC.
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What are you guys thinking for Tallahassee? looks like the storm has a whole lot of energy on the right front and if it turns when the center is to our west we could be in it for a while. I love these kind of storms. There is no chance that this would make landfall on the Gulf Coast at more than a 55 mph storm.
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2476. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:
9 minutes to 11am here and no update from the NHC.


Pretty sure they might keep the tone down on this update and wait for additional updates once the HH arrives.
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they probably dont know what to do and really want that hunter data. Remember they are taking obs the whole way down so even that data helps intialize models.
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Quoting Weather456:
C'mon guys...there is a lot of lurkers trying to read the blog....and its more difficult to read if have these clutter between information.


Here's the latest MMIC on Ida



WOW those last two or so frames are impressive.
The potential forming eye looks cleaner more circular, while it seems a NNW motion has started.
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Hoping it will only be squally rain showers for u guys on GCM.
At the moment, barring slightly blustery but dry conditions, think we are looking good (for now) on Sister Islands
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Blog moving fast this morn! A little excitement in movember! Who'd a thunk it
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9 minutes to 11am here and no update from the NHC.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
Making a point Atom....Chill out


I think it was called for. The arguing was getting kinda out of hand.
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Quoting Weather456:
C'mon guys...there is a lot of lurkers trying to read the blog....and its more difficult to read if have these clutter between information.


Here's the latest MMIC on Ida



Seeing an eyewall come together on the last frames, interesting. Wondering what Ida has in store for us.
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Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
Making a point Atom....Chill out

My point is that there are emissions in here polluting the blog we read...
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2464. 786
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still raining non-stop in East End


Well if there is Westerly movement to her course then I'm sure we'll get that rain soon in West Bay
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Today must be the day hat everyone gets their poor little feelings hurt...sigh most people can just brush it off if someone disagrees with them or attacks them...there is no threat, it is on a computer so just bypass it and move on.
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C'mon guys...there is a lot of lurkers trying to read the blog....and its more difficult to read if have these clutter between information.


Here's the latest MMIC on Ida

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
looks like an eye forming to me!
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Quoting 786:
456, not raining a the moment, winds have died down and pressure is rising. There is still a nice ball of convection S of us. Still waiting for her NW movement
Still raining non-stop in East End
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8331

Ida looks in a state of grace lodged between 20 and 30 knots of shear.
Whether she gets help from outside appears to be what people with meteorologic backgrounds are debating at this time. By the way, Dr. Masters did say there would be a complex set of circumstances ahead for this system.
See y'all later.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
2458. 786
If she going between Yucatan and Cuba she needs to be starting a more westerly course very soon
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True that! Now we wait for Dr. Master's input..
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2455. code1
sigh It would be so nice to once again (been many a moon) come here and read comments without reading the boorish behavior of male hormones jostling for position on the playing field. Will go back to reading the Good Dr. M's only. Not worth the rest. Makes us miss a lot of the good here guys. Grow up!
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
If this thing gets anywhere near Mississippi it is going to make for a long week for me next week.

Yep. Me, too.

CMC has done so much better this year, hard to disregard it completely, but basically a large loop much like the others, just really broad.

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Quoting 786:
why does she look a bit decoupled?


? Were are you seeing that?
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nice outflow to the SW
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Making a point Atom....Chill out
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2449. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:

WTH don't you two put each other on the iggy and move on? Today?


I'll 2nd that....enough.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2448. 786
why does she look a bit decoupled?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm sorry man 451 is aggrevating me bceause I said his storm in the boc isn't rapidly intensifying. That post was meant for him not you. I'm new on here and must have made a mistake.

WTH don't you two put each other on the iggy and move on? Today?
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Quoting foggymyst:
Not for nothing Tampa.. but Ida is going against all Nascar rules.. needs to be a left turn, please..



LOVE IT....#24 is pretty good at going left and right tho.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
2444. GBlet
Tacoman= good Stormno=bad
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2443. IKE
I'll say they go with 55 or 60 mph winds on the next advisory.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Notice the deep convection right at the center is hooking...indicative of an eye feature trying to form.

There is some intense updrafts at the center of that storm....hurricane hunters in for a ride.



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Local weathermen (Miami) last night said that the upper level winds over the Florida Striaghts are currently blowing over 80 mph. When (If) Ida reaches this area or West of it she will be quickly torn apart. Here's hoping that she slings some moisture at the Keys. We are in a major rain deficient
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Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
stormno/POOF!

So ya quoted his post so everyone that has already taken that measure could see it? (I guess unless they have Poofed yourself, too...)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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