Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Good evening all

Based on the current IR2 loop the center of Ida looks to be near 16.2N and 84.2 W

I do not see any motion to the East of North

The NNW track would appear to have resumed.
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what intresting is that since the 4PM advisory IDA has continued to be to the east of the forecast points looks like another shift to the east if that trend continues but the general forecast track looks pretty good so far
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Quoting Dakster:


You remind me of a politician, you only read what you want... You missed that it could fall apart and do NOTHING in my post... I could find posts of ALL the scenarios I described, along with forecasts to match. BTW - Since you seemed to have missed it, that post was my attempt at sarcasm/humor...

But I digress, as I won't engage in a battle of wits with unarmed opponents as it really isn't fair.
LOL a lot!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1187. hydrus
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Where is Ike...

We need popcorn and Fresca
Shrimp and beer!
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with every run the computer models change and change but it appears that for sure that florida is going to get MUCH needed rain
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
On the last visible Sat i looked at Idas coc and she looks like shes starting to jog to the NNW a little bit! Also she is 12 hours faster than the first tropical point in the water. If she keeps that speed up this will change the track more N into the GOM. IMO
Quoting southbeachdude:
Is the next update at 7pm or 8pm Eastern time????


No its at 10pm EDT, no watches or warnings out so no intermediate advisory
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Quoting Bordonaro:
I am not a meteorologist, but by looking at the last satellite picture loop, Ida's ready to intensify. Maybe RI, this is the year of surprises!!


I have to agree. Those last two frames of visible were quite impressive.

Also I see the error of my eyes. I do not see much shear.
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
Is the next update at 7pm or 8pm Eastern time????
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1181. 786
East End got cat. one force gusts, I lived in Red Bay at the time, and we had TS force gusts. It still takes more than that to damage a reinforced concrete home (which everyone here has). Def. prepared but all I am saying is it is rare to be in the bulls eye and Paloma shows just how close you need to be to the eye to get the worst.
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1180. Dakster
Quoting winter123:


Another Katrina?? Oh god, ida's got the doomcasters out full force... speaking of which, wonder what the CMC says for ida? *looks*


You remind me of a politician, you only read what you want... You missed that it could fall apart and do NOTHING in my post... I could find posts of ALL the scenarios I described, along with forecasts to match. BTW - Since you seemed to have missed it, that post was my attempt at sarcasm/humor...

But I digress, as I won't engage in a battle of wits with unarmed opponents as it really isn't fair.
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Where is Ike...

We need popcorn and Fresca
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
1178. geepy86
We sure could use some rain on the east coast of central fla. right now.
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Quoting 786:
The Island is well prepared, it is the hurricane capital of the Atlantic, it has no choice. In my lifetime, Ivan was the only storm to truly damage the Island (appt. worse than the 1932 hurricane) and Grand Cayman now looks better than it ever did! Unfortunately can't say the same about New Orleans. Never say never but Ivan I think was a once in a lifetime experience, IDA could have done her worst already to Nic. and Hon.
I pray.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
I am not a meteorologist, but by looking at the last satellite picture loop, Ida's ready to intensify. Maybe RI, this is the year of surprises!!
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Ha im on the West side im sure I will see some of the flooding if she gets here,Im taking your advice from a post this afternoon and moving inland.
Ok, just don't worry too much and keep reading the blog and you will know exactly what to expect. I for one will not shut off my computer tonight.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting Patrap:
Evac..NOLA?
Gimmee a Break,,the Saints Host the Panthers Sunday at 3 CDT..LOL


NOLA emptied for Gustav in like a day last August 30.,..so no ..no Evacs for us in 2009.

Cept maybe to Miami in Feb 2010..!
That would be cool-Go Saints and certainly hope the weather co-operates as this is quiote an interesting setup with flood watches warnings already posted this far out. Thanks for keeping this issue focused
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
I think Ida is about to kick it up a few gears...
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1172. 786
The Island is well prepared, it is the hurricane capital of the Atlantic, it has no choice. In my lifetime, Ivan was the only storm to truly damage the Island (appt. worse than the 1932 hurricane) and Grand Cayman now looks better than it ever did! Unfortunately can't say the same about New Orleans. Never say never but Ivan I think was a once in a lifetime experience, IDA could have done her worst already to Nic. and Hon.
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1171. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
Evac..NOLA?
Gimmee a Break,,the Saints Host the Panthers Sunday at 3 CDT..LOL


NOLA emptied for Gustav in like a day last August 30.,..so no ..no Evacs for us in 2009.

Cept maybe to Miami in Feb 2010..!


LOL...
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Link
IR SAT
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Bah, i was right at the end of the 50 posts, so no one will read it. This is to the person that was doomcasting New Orleans with "Katrina 2", a classic CMC doomcast. It's like that model is programmed to steer storms towards New Orleans or NYC.
Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Too late, you are here and she is somewhere around here but stop worrying, we are very safe. I have lived here for 36 years and the only time I was afraid was when Ivan approached us. I am never afraid and even love to be outside if possible (but not when it gets too bad). I love to watch the sea as it comes up over the roads. Just don't take any unnecessary chances is the only advice I can give.
Ha im on the West side im sure I will see some of the flooding if she gets here,Im taking your advice from a post this afternoon and moving inland.
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Quoting Progster:
Last 90 min of various IR and RGB imagery shows convection has reformed directly over the COC. This will be another rapid deepening phase.


I agree. Deep convection is starting to en-circle the COC... and the outflow looks really good.
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Quoting 786:
You know, during Gustav we got storm surge and hardly any rain, during Paloma we had a lot of rain and no storm surge, during the course of each of them it looked like we were within the hurricane force winds, both occasions we were watching TV, listening to the radio... and hearing them say Cayman was getting ravaged... although we were bracing ourselves for worst, in actuality just some parts got TS force winds. Grand Cayman is so small to get hurricane force winds we have to hit the bulls eye and that is very rare. The flip side is because it is so rare, people become complacent, I doubt most people on the Islands have prepared let alone following Ida's track, its the long weekend and I know there are a lot of people partying.

So yeah, right now it looks like we should be under torrential rain and instead its breezy and not a drop has fallen.

I do feel for Nicaragua and Honduras, they don't have as strong an infrastructure.

Anyway I do think she will go right of the NHC track, and Grand Cayman will get some decent gusts and rain but she is too far to do much damage.
Sorry to disillusion you but East End did have hurricane force winds in Paloma(96 mph) and Gustav(80+ mph) and we usually get the hardest hit due to our location south and east.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting jipmg:


There is NO SW shear over ida, if there was any shear over ida, you would see the clouds which are moving OUTWARD towards the SW not even moving outward, and that outward motion just shows you there is not much shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
we will just have to agree to disagree.
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
Im just on vacation, and dont want to be around if this storm is anywhere near here.
Too late, you are here and she is somewhere around here but stop worrying, we are very safe. I have lived here for 36 years and the only time I was afraid was when Ivan approached us. I am never afraid and even love to be outside if possible (but not when it gets too bad). I love to watch the sea as it comes up over the roads. Just don't take any unnecessary chances is the only advice I can give.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting InTheCone:
I was in Grand Cayman when Dean looked like a real threat there. Where did I get all the info. I needed? Right here of course. We were leaving 1 day before anyway, so it worked out easily for us. But I knew more when talking to folks around the area than most.

BTW - love that place and can't wait to get back!
I told you already you are welcome anytime and jdc doesn't have to worry because like I said we are small but only st**** um sweetheart people(thanks awake) here are not prepared and we are usually notified in time and also flags are put up on most government buildings. No need to worry. If it is a threat the hotel manager will evacuate you.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
1161. Drakoen
HWRF and GFDL further south and has the system moving ESE in the GOM.
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Quoting seflagamma:


me too!

I got out some of the bottled water last weekend and drank some of the juice and sodas!
YIKES!


We do need rain in south Florida.......
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1159. 786
You know, during Gustav we got storm surge and hardly any rain, during Paloma we had a lot of rain and no storm surge, during the course of each of them it looked like we were within the hurricane force winds, both occasions we were watching TV, listening to the radio... and hearing them say Cayman was getting ravaged... although we were bracing ourselves for worst, in actuality just some parts got TS force winds. Grand Cayman is so small to get hurricane force winds we have to hit the bulls eye and that is very rare. The flip side is because it is so rare, people become complacent, I doubt most people on the Islands have prepared let alone following Ida's track, its the long weekend and I know there are a lot of people partying.

So yeah, right now it looks like we should be under torrential rain and instead its breezy and not a drop has fallen.

I do feel for Nicaragua and Honduras, they don't have as strong an infrastructure.

Anyway I do think she will go right of the NHC track, and Grand Cayman will get some decent gusts and rain but she is too far to do much damage.
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1158. bwi
OK, let me summarize what I think I'm hearing from the discussion today -- feel free to tell me where I'm wrong!

Looking at the UKmet modeling that futuremet posted a while back as an example, it makes me think about moderate but possibly widespread coastal flooding, which could surprise some people, especially if Ida isn't technically a tropical system in the gulf. That BOC low and the long easterly fetch is already projected to cause some coastal flooding in TX, and also in LA combined with high freshwater levels. But if Ida or post-Ida storm gets all the way up to south of New Orleans, and stalls, even if it's becoming non-tropical, all that water in the western gulf could start to slosh back toward the FL gulf coast? Ike showed that it's the size and overall energy of the system that can matter as much as the intensity, at least for pushing water. A sprawling hybrid storm in the northern gulf that slowly turned toward the west coast of FL could bring a lot of water with it (in additional to damaging winds and storms).

I know folks in LA and TX would be well aware of the surge issue, but would western FL, especially if it wasn't technically from a "hurricane?"
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1157. aquak9
hey foxx- please let me or Rain know if ya'lls water starts rising around the dock.

Gamma- duct tape those orchids!!! I got no room for them here! But if they end up here, I promise to take good care if them.
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got to go; almost quiting time here... need to wrap it up.

wonder what I will find here in the morning???


good night everyone.
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Hi Gams...
We are in Apalachicola, so I won't be be making a quick run to anywhere to pick up replenishments!
Mother Nature never ceases to amaze us, does she?
Quoting seflagamma:


me too!

I got out some of the bottled water last weekend and drank some of the juice and sodas!
YIKES!
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1154. jipmg
Quoting SouthALWX:


have to disagree. WV imagery clearly shows some slight SW wind shear.


There is NO SW shear over ida, if there was any shear over ida, you would see the clouds which are moving OUTWARD towards the SW not even moving outward, and that outward motion just shows you there is not much shear.
Quoting winter123:


Another Katrina?? Oh god, ida's got the doomcasters out full force... speaking of which, wonder what the CMC says for ida? *looks*
Im just on vacation, and dont want to be around if this storm is anywhere near here.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
{{{Zoo}}}

Ah, can you believe this? We are waiting & watching..... argh! And I had already started using the Hurricane Supplies! : )



me too!

I got out some of the bottled water last weekend and drank some of the juice and sodas!
YIKES!
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Where she will go, nobody knows!
Quoting zoomiami:
Hey Beachie!!

also typical - watching from my end to your end - and no possible way to figure out where it will end up.

so long as you only used a few should be good! I used my batteries - going to have to hop over and get some.
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Last 90 min of various IR and RGB imagery shows convection has reformed directly over the COC. This will be another rapid deepening phase.
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Hey Beachie!!

also typical - watching from my end to your end - and no possible way to figure out where it will end up.

so long as you only used a few should be good! I used my batteries - going to have to hop over and get some.
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Quoting winter123:


You're thinking about... tacos...

or perhaps thats me XD

yes its taco night and i'm smelling the beef cooking
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Quoting winter123:


Another Katrina?? Oh god, ida's got the doomcasters out full force... speaking of which, wonder what the CMC says for ida? *looks*

HAHAHAHAH. The CMC fully agrees with the New Orleans doomcasters... it's like it's programmed to steer all storms to either New Orleans or NYC. 96 hours... all are doomed...
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I was in Grand Cayman when Dean looked like a real threat there. Where did I get all the info. I needed? Right here of course. We were leaving 1 day before anyway, so it worked out easily for us. But I knew more when talking to folks around the area than most.

BTW - love that place and can't wait to get back!
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
I hope your making a joke ,I tried to get a early flight.not because im afraid I live in N.C. and we are used to storms but nobody tells you anything on this Island.


First Rule of Broadcasting: KISS
Keep it Simple, St----, uh, Sweetheart

Second Rule:
a. Tell 'em what you're going to tell them.
b. Then tell them.
c. Then tell them what you told them.

So, (b), & please don't make me go do "c". Just re-read, pls. I don't want to be flagged.

Severe Weather

In the case of severe weather potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, local bulletins are based on information issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. If no land is threatened, the Center issues bulletins every six hours. It issues bulletins every three hours if land is threatened, and every two hours if the US is threatened and the storm is being picked up by US land-based radar. Cayman's Met Service releases a bulletin to local media within 15 minutes of receiving information from the National Hurricane Center. The Met service also issues bulletins more frequently if conditions warrant. These bulletins are posted on this site, also. The tracking map carried on this site is also immediately updated with this information by the Met Service. The local Meteorological Service then adds information on local weather conditions in and around the Cayman Islands. The Chairman of Cayman's National Hurricane Committee is responsible for declaring all or any of the three islands to be under an Alert, Watch or Warning. Once the declaration has been made, the local Met Service issues bulletins on the following schedule:

Alert: "Take Precautions"

In the early stages of the formation of potentially severe weather that could affect the Caribbean, the Met Service issues bulletins every six hours at 4am, 10am, 4pm, and 10pm.

Watch: "Batten Down"

The Met Service issues bulletins every three hours at 1am, 4am, 7am, 10am, 1pm, 4pm, 7pm, and 10pm.

Warning: "Take Refuge"

Bulletins are issued every two hours, on even-numbered hours, 2, 4, 6, etc.

These times follow approximately the release of information by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.





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18Z HWRF is coming out, does basically the same as the 18Z GFDL.
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1143. aquak9
Kerry knows stormtop. But it's not the same person.

not trying to argue or nuthin, just so ya'll don't get confused.

zoomiami
check your wumail in a few minutes
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Quoting Dakster:


You are not kidding... If I lived in the Cayman's I'd be going crazy right now. I mean, it looks like Ida is going directly there and with those warm waters, well you all know the rest.

Although, NOLA folks better watch out too, this could be another "Katrina" in the making. I wonder how the evac will be handled today vs. 2005, if that scenario played out.

Then again, according to some here, Ida, Andrew's evil, younger sister could roar through South Florida....

Hopefully, the above are only conjecture as Ida falls apart after exiting Central America.

I guess we shall see, tomorrow I base alot of my preparedness by what Ida looks like and projected path by the NHC, Dr. Masters, and a select group of fellow bloggers, if they happen to disagree.


Another Katrina?? Oh god, ida's got the doomcasters out full force... speaking of which, wonder what the CMC says for ida? *looks*
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{{{Zoo}}}

Ah, can you believe this? We are waiting & watching..... argh! And I had already started using the Hurricane Supplies! : )

Quoting zoomiami:
Couple of observations: where can you be sure a storm won't go? the first set of runs on the models.

How fast do things change? read the blog this morning - said, hm not much to worry about my neck of the woods, on the way home tonight news said Ida will impact south florida tues night weds am. Just not sure in what form.

so here I am - reading and watching again!
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


slight shear? not enough to even bring it up

Ida is not lopsided due to shear

didnt say it was lopsided due to shear. I agree with your statement as to why THAT is, disagree with you saying there was no shear. There is it's just light.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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