Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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456 could you please expain to me how they forecast the forward speed of a hurricane for tracking purposes?
Quoting kuppenskup:
Am I blind or is everyone else? I see no NNW shift at all, if anything it's east of due north. What am I missing her?


I agree with you. I dont see any NNW motion.
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Hi Guys! I haven't been on the blog in a while. I would really appreciate it if some of you guys would read my blog and comment. I promise, you won't be dissapointed.

Thanks,
Cyclonekid/Matt
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Repost for stormhank

Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:
Weather456-
Could you explain your "Perfect Storm"? I heard about the posting this morning from another user and I am very interested in hearing (reading) it myself from you :-) Thanks!


some people describe a perfect storm as the coming together of several systems, most often of different types to make one system that is usually a noticeable weather maker. You have Ida, 96E and the expected gale system converging over the CGOM. This morning model runs showed gale conditions developing over the GOM region mid-next week.

Here's a nice story from accuweather

Two systems of tropical origin are being watched for impact in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and beyond. One or both systems will kick up winds, waves and rain in the region that potentially can disrupt commerce and lead to damaging flooding. The extent of these problems will depend on the strength and speed of Ida heading for the eastern Gulf and an unnamed system in the western Gulf.

Look at the Gulf of Mexico

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Am I blind or is everyone else? I see no NNW shift at all, if anything it's east of due north. What am I missing her?
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speed up the loop and you will see the trend.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
1234. Buhdog
Shear at all seems to be coming from the SW (part of our BOC system?) blowing convention (hehe) to the NE giving the appearance of Ida going that way. It indeed looks to me n Zoom like it's going due north witha blowup on the last fram right over the center! Looks to be making a burst to me!
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Quoting stormhank:
any affects up in fla panahndle from ida expected?? rain / wind??


Yea...you would have to read a back a few post but let me look for it.
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For 20 knots of Southwesterly shear, I must say shes making a nice comeback. We'll see how she does against 30 knots tomorrow.


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Quoting Clearwater1:
I think it is right on the nhc track. I don't see any directional change
is it really they have been shifting that track to the east abit and cuving it back to the west ,i am not confident onthat track at all .
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Still, she's looking Mighty Mighty tonighty.
IRLoop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
any affects up in fla panahndle from ida expected?? rain / wind??
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Quoting Chicklit:
shouldn't shear be ida's undoing?
???? is that a rhetorical? I'm confused (most of the time)
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Iooks like IDA Is going through some shear ???????
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
1226. 786
Nice! I am envious, I think I need to get of the rock for a bit and enjoy the city life!
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it not the rain we have to worry about or wind , the sea hope ida stays far enough away so that tide surge doesnt affect us.
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Quoting Weather456:
to me...Ida is moving north.
thanks 456 should we be seeing tropical storm IDA at 10 PM or still needs to organize a bit more
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Quoting 786:
LOL Kman you are prob. getting more rain in London than we are here!


Actually no rain this evening at all. Just walked off a real nice rib eye LOL
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
what the heck you guys are looking at i certainly dont see any change from the direction of e of north
I think it is right on the nhc track. I don't see any directional change
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Quoting kmanislander:


The revised forecast was for an exit off the N coast of Honduras " this evening ".

It actually moved offshore around 4 pm so I would say about 6 hrs ahead perhaps ??
thanks
Quoting reedzone:
Perfect Storm II in the makings?

We had the same possibilty when Wilma was forecasted to emerge wth a nor'easter in 2005, never happened as the storm stayed east of the nor'easter. This scenario is already looking historical to me at least. 96E may be weakening, but the moisture is moving northward into to the low that is developing in the Bay of Campeche. Now Ida is strengthening in the Western Carribean and could attain Hurricane status before the interaction occurs. I feel this could become a category one at the most, though would not surprise me if Ida strengthens into a category 2. As Ida enters the GOM, she will encounter very high wind shear; however, it seems that Ida will be moving in the direction of the shear so it will probably become extratropical and not get sheared, this is only going by my personal opinion and the NHC agrees as well. As 96Es moisture, BOC low, Ida, and a cold front collide, this could become the second Perfect Storm. The first one occured in Halloween of 1991 where Hurricane Grace collided with a low pressure system and a front. The track is difficult after all systems collide, but the huge possible system should move eastwards towards Florida, though it could take a dve southward if the high pressure is strong to the north as some models suggest. Boy it was very windy today here in good old Palm Coast, FL. This is due to the gradient between these systems to our south. Just watch and prepare for the worst. It all migfht just come out to be hype and maybe Ida will fizzle and the low will move into Luisiana as a hybrid low.

Here's a map I made showing the possible scenario.


possible. Agree on the argument. GFS is calling for the llc and ULC to split and become two systems with the ULC getting tugged away by the front and the swirl of Ida left behind... entirely possible too.. one things for sure, there's alot of energy heading towards the same spot. Something's gotta give
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting Dakster:


The center of Ida is supposed to nip the Yucatan peninsula. SO... Mark it now and in a day or so see if it verifies.
thanks i just see that it will be more towards the center of the channel but closer to the yucatan
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1218. 786
456, gotta say you are on point, thanks for all your knowledge.
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Possibly the perfect storm in the GOM??? hehe
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shouldn't shear be ida's undoing?


ShearMap
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
not to argue or contradict with anyone i see the same Due north with slight shifts to the East but thats my eyes i may be wrong but on the IR2 i see that now if you look at the TS point thats after the Depression point IDA is way futher to the east
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to me...Ida is moving north.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
what the heck you guys are looking at i certainly dont see any change from the direction of e of north
This is how i do it as a rookie! Go to crown weather site, click on Ida. Scroll down to visible sat. Click on it and it will animate. Click on tropical points and then watch the first one in the water. You will see a shift in the coc to the NW.
1212. 786
LOL Kman you are prob. getting more rain in London than we are here!
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LOL The models are on crack. They are having a hard time coming up with a solution. It is kind of hard when you have 3 systems and a trough coming into play around the same time. What a mess. The most interesting days are ahead for the 2009 hurricane season. :)
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Kman is it ahead of forecast by 12 hours?


The revised forecast was for an exit off the N coast of Honduras " this evening ".

It actually moved offshore around 4 pm so I would say about 6 hrs ahead perhaps ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1209. Dakster
Quoting Seflhurricane:
she is just slightly east of the next point but if the turn towards the NNW does not commence she will miss the next point by alot of miles


The center of Ida is supposed to nip the Yucatan peninsula. SO... Mark it now and in a day or so see if it verifies.
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i truly think that IDA will not go as far as the NHC is projecting when it gets to the yucatan peninsula its probably going to go futher east
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Perfect Storm II in the makings?

We had the same possibilty when Wilma was forecasted to emerge wth a nor'easter in 2005, never happened as the storm stayed east of the nor'easter. This scenario is already looking historical to me at least. 96E may be weakening, but the moisture is moving northward into to the low that is developing in the Bay of Campeche. Now Ida is strengthening in the Western Carribean and could attain Hurricane status before the interaction occurs. I feel this could become a category one at the most, though would not surprise me if Ida strengthens into a category 2. As Ida enters the GOM, she will encounter very high wind shear; however, it seems that Ida will be moving in the direction of the shear so it will probably become extratropical and not get sheared, this is only going by my personal opinion and the NHC agrees as well. As 96Es moisture, BOC low, Ida, and a cold front collide, this could become the second Perfect Storm. The first one occured in Halloween of 1991 where Hurricane Grace collided with a low pressure system and a front. The track is difficult after all systems collide, but the huge possible system should move eastwards towards Florida, though it could take a dve southward if the high pressure is strong to the north as some models suggest. Boy it was very windy today here in good old Palm Coast, FL. This is due to the gradient between these systems to our south. Just watch and prepare for the worst. It all migfht just come out to be hype and maybe Ida will fizzle and the low will move into Luisiana as a hybrid low.

Here's a map I made showing the possible scenario.

Photobucket
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Quoting kmanislander:


The center is to the SW of the 0600Z point.

NNW has resumed.
Kman is it ahead of forecast by 12 hours?
what the heck you guys are looking at i certainly dont see any change from the direction of e of north
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
no it hasn't
?????????
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Blog Update

AOI

AOI

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well...hello there.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting Seflhurricane:
she is just slightly east of the next point but if the turn towards the NNW does not commence she will miss the next point by alot of miles


The center is to the SW of the 0600Z point.

NNW has resumed.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
You have to look very carefully. Ida is moving either due North or just West of due north. The COC is now embedded under convection, she's setting the stage, getting ready to sing.
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no it hasn't
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Yellow is shear
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Quoting 786:
East End got cat. one force gusts, I lived in Red Bay at the time, and we had TS force gusts. It still takes more than that to damage a reinforced concrete home (which everyone here has). Def. prepared but all I am saying is it is rare to be in the bulls eye and Paloma shows just how close you need to be to the eye to get the worst.
Funny thin was with Paloma was that East End had the heaviest winds in Grand Cayman but we were the only district that never lost power but then with Dolly the year before we were more than 12 hours with no power.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Bordonaro:

There isn't much shear, right now. I am concerned. My 41 years of observing Severe Weather/Tropical Systems tell me that Ida may be a CAT 1 or more in 16 hrs..

definitely possible, especially considering Ida's movement is with rather than against what shear there is.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

Based on the current IR2 loop the center of Ida looks to be near 16.2N and 84.2 W

I do not see any motion to the East of North

The NNW track would appear to have resumed.
I concur, If you look at the visible Sat,you can clearly see it is not going E of N at all.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

Based on the current IR2 loop the center of Ida looks to be near 16.2N and 84.2 W

I do not see any motion to the East of North

The NNW track would appear to have resumed.
she is just slightly east of the next point but if the turn towards the NNW does not commence she will miss the next point by alot of miles
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting 786:
East End got cat. one force gusts, I lived in Red Bay at the time, and we had TS force gusts. It still takes more than that to damage a reinforced concrete home (which everyone here has). Def. prepared but all I am saying is it is rare to be in the bulls eye and Paloma shows just how close you need to be to the eye to get the worst.
Funny thing was with Paloma was that East End had the heaviest winds in Grand Cayman but we were the only district that never lost power but then with Dolly the year before we were more than 12 hours with no power.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting tornadofan:


I have to agree. Those last two frames of visible were quite impressive.

Also I see the error of my eyes. I do not see much shear.

There isn't much shear, right now. I am concerned. My 41 years of observing Severe Weather/Tropical Systems as a non professional tell me that Ida may be a CAT 1 or more in 16 hrs..
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Good evening all

Based on the current IR2 loop the center of Ida looks to be near 16.2N and 84.2 W

I do not see any motion to the East of North

The NNW track would appear to have resumed.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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