Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormsurge39:
Do you live in S Al.

yes I live just north of mobile. currently attendinf USA trying so desperately hard to do all this math -.- ...
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
1339. WAHA
Quoting WAHA:
I am going to be awake for 36 hours straight as of now to try to create an algorithm for predicting weather in the tropics two weeks into the future as accurate as todays 1 day forecast.

It's amazing, you take no attention of it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't be surprised if Ida relocates her center a few times to the east due to shear, that often happens in a system trying to redevelop against western shear, this is not true movement but does affect the track, makes the NHC forecasters look bad as well ... Lol.
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1337. ackee
I think that pre TS IDA centre may try to relocated under the deeper convection bit further north
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Quoting floridafisherman:
just wondering.....

but where are all the posters who were saying (not even a week ago) that the season was "over"?

taz? WS? you guys there?


lol.....lurking in the shadows
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i dont want say his name on the blogg.
Use Wu mail
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting floridafisherman:
just wondering.....

but where are all the posters who were saying (not even a week ago) that the season was "over"?

taz? WS? you guys there?

Hey you have to read the entire blog... I posted earlier (could've been yesterday) that I was having a crow omelet for breakfast.... I don't have an issue in admitting I was wrong unlike most on here
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting eyesontheweather:
???? is that a rhetorical? I'm confused (most of the time)

well yes i'm an essay. but why would this be a rhetorical question? shear is up ahead of ida.
why it wouldn't tear her up is for people who know what they're talking about to explain, or not as they see fit.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
he has that shop on crewe rd.
Which one ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting floridafisherman:
just wondering.....

but where are all the posters who were saying (not even a week ago) that the season was "over"?

taz? WS? you guys there?

Don't bother them they're out eating crow ( it can take a while ) =P
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting SouthALWX:

lol i can't help it ... Dr. Blackwell, the head of tropical department down here at USA, uses that term alot and it rubs off on you after a while.
Do you live in S Al.
Ida is loving those warm waters



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1328. bjdsrq
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Thank you.. finally an answer about the future of this storm.... Again, Thank You!


LOL... any answer to that question before sunday afternoon is a random guess at this point.
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1327. WAHA
I am going to be awake for 36 hours straight as of now to try to create an algorithm for predicting weather in the tropics two weeks into the future as accurate as todays 1 day forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just wondering.....

but where are all the posters who were saying (not even a week ago) that the season was "over"?

taz? WS? you guys there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i dont want say his name on the blogg.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting jipmg:
So when is quickscat


should be out anytime soon...but QS is so unpredictable in the evening.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
he has that shop on crewe rd.
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Thank you.. finally an answer about the future of this storm.... Again, Thank You!

not a problem =) stay tuned =P
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Recent position estimates, looks like SAB was the outlier so they went with TAFB position.


AL 11 200911062302 SSMS 1570N 8380W NHC SSMS
AL 11 200911062345 DVTS 1590N 8390W TAFB 1515 ///// DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING WITH (T+0.5) WHITE B
AL 11 200911062345 DVTS 1630N 8420W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=2.0 FTBO PT PA=20 NMI
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
83.5 16.8


center doesnt look to be in that area
1319. bjdsrq
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i think so too convection is really starting to wrap around we most likely have a 40 MPh tropical storm at this time


Agreed
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Very Intense blowup of convection right over the center of IDA looks like she is taking advantange of the warm water
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1317. jipmg
So when is quickscat
Quoting stormsurge39:
Rip her head off is so cruel! LOL

lol i can't help it ... Dr. Blackwell, the head of tropical department down here at USA, uses that term alot and it rubs off on you after a while.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
1315. ackee
just seem like Ida wobble A BIT NE and has resume NW mostion again look like IDa has also regain TS strength TOO LATE CAT3 suprise for the gulf state
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Quoting SouthALWX:

After it reaches the southern gomex, it is predicted that a strong trough will scoot in and rip Ida's head off. strong westerly shear should take Ida from a TC to extra tropical though the pressure gradient all across the northern gomex could be high enough to support winds up to TS strength causing minor beach erosion.. Surf's up! =P I give her 24-36 hours to mature because at this point in time it's not looking good for her down the line.
Thank you.. finally an answer about the future of this storm.... Again, Thank You!
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
83.5 16.8
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting stormpetrol:

kmanhurricaneman, man when i read your post i just had to call my brother in Prospect & his family to make sure they were ok. Had my heart pounding there for a few minutes til I could reach them, very Sad and they the tragedy with the young manlast Sat morning who went through 14 years of school with my youngest son, can't believe, we are losing our future.
Confirmation was that he was Spanish.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Wow it aooears to be moving more NE than N direction already.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

After it reaches the southern gomex, it is predicted that a strong trough will scoot in and rip Ida's head off. strong westerly shear should take Ida from a TC to extra tropical though the pressure gradient all across the northern gomex could be high enough to support winds up to TS strength causing minor beach erosion.. Surf's up! =P I give her 24-36 hours to mature because at this point in time it's not looking good for her down the line.
Rip her head off is so cruel! LOL
Quoting Weather456:
I think Ida is a tropical storm.

All I need is QS to catch any tropical storm force winds in those thunderstorms north of Ida for confirmation.


I agree, deep convection around the LLC.. It's at least 40 mph. NHC is really being conservative with her.
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Wow, this is pretty cool stuff right now. Looks like the forecasters have picked up the possible subtropical gale storm we might have in the GOM next week. Ida delivering the fuel and a frontal system backed by high pressure holding Ida over the GOM. At that point she should get swallowed and transition into a nasty subtropical storm, if that storm goes east florida needs to lookout for severe weather, the models really are not showing the winds we might see, guess it will depend largely on how much moisture Ida will bring and how deep the trough gets. At any rate, I would not be doing any boat rides in the GOM or anywhere near florida for that matter. So far Ida has followed the path around the ridge to the cue. Tough little girl so far.
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Quoting Weather456:
I think Ida is a tropical storm.

All I need is QS to catch any tropical storm force winds in those thunderstorms north of Ida for confirmation.
i think so too convection is really starting to wrap around we most likely have a 40 MPh tropical storm at this time
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting eyesontheweather:
OK so the next 24 has it continueing to strengthen somewhat and then the shear will really kick in?

After it reaches the southern gomex, it is predicted that a strong trough will scoot in and rip Ida's head off. strong westerly shear should take Ida from a TC to extra tropical though the pressure gradient all across the northern gomex could be high enough to support winds up to TS strength causing minor beach erosion.. Surf's up! =P I give her 24-36 hours to mature because at this point in time it's not looking good for her down the line.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting Weather456:
I think Ida is a tropical storm.

All I need is QS to catch any tropical storm force winds in those thunderstorms north of Ida for confirmation.
looks like convection is really starting to blow up around COC.
I expect she'll be classified as such at 10.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 215
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
kman islander , just heard someone got killed at that roundaabout by red bay gas station apparently vehicle slid of and overturned in canal ,i know the fella just got though working on his house.

kmanhurricaneman, man when i read your post i just had to call my brother in Prospect & his family to make sure they were ok. Had my heart pounding there for a few minutes til I could reach them, very Sad and they the tragedy with the young manlast Sat morning who went through 14 years of school with my youngest son, can't believe, we are losing our future.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1301. eyesontheweather
12:48 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
OK so the next 24 has it continueing to strengthen somewhat and then the shear will really kick in?
And after that...or is that to far out for a reasaonable projection?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1300. xcool
12:47 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
model soso lost imo ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1299. Cavin Rawlins
12:46 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
I think Ida is a tropical storm.

All I need is QS to catch any tropical storm force winds in those thunderstorms north of Ida for confirmation.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1298. xcool
12:46 AM GMT on November 07, 2009





Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1297. amd
12:45 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
hmmm, winds already picking up over the caribbean in association with Ida.

Notice the highest 1-min wind speed at buoy 42057
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
1296. BurnedAfterPosting
12:45 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
OK so the next 24 has it continueing to strengthen somewhat and then the shear will really kick in?


24 hours to me is too soon, shear should move north with Ida; so I think shear is good for the next 48
1295. eyesontheweather
12:44 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Quoting SouthALWX:

As I was saying then, the SW shear may impede RI but shouldn't be prohibitive to strengthening. It has nice anticyclonic outflow on it's northern side and as it moves that way if the anticyclone tracks with it it may find a brief window of lesser shear, especially if it speeds up and lessens the effects of a shear tending to the southerly vector.
OK so the next 24 has it continueing to strengthen somewhat and then the shear will really kick in?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1294. SouthALWX
12:44 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Quoting jipmg:
Yep definately slower than it was moving earlier today

It's probably about to start drifting NNW imo ... generally track changes are preceded by a slowing in forward motion ( as im sure you know )
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
1293. Seflhurricane
12:44 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Ida is probably close to being a tropical storm
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1292. stormsurge39
12:44 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Quoting Dakster:


You can... Even with Hurricanes, Speed = Distance traveled over time. As in Miles per Hour, Feet per Second, etc...

If you read the NHC discussions, they usually post speed based upon the distance the tropical system traveled over the past several hours. If you wanted the average speed for the past day, you could certainly figure it out the same way, although you are averaging the speed of a large period of time. I think short time measurements are prone to large errors. We can't even agree here on whether the storm is moving North, NNW, or NNE. I could only imagine where is the "center" debate.
Thanks for the help. NNW LOL
1291. jipmg
12:41 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Yep definately slower than it was moving earlier today
1290. Dakster
12:41 AM GMT on November 07, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
So you start over everytime the forward speed changes?


You can... Even with Hurricanes, Speed = Distance traveled over time. As in Miles per Hour, Feet per Second, etc...

If you read the NHC discussions, they usually post speed based upon the distance the tropical system traveled over the past several hours. If you wanted the average speed for the past day, you could certainly figure it out the same way, although you are averaging the speed of a large period of time. I think short time measurements are prone to large errors. We can't even agree here on whether the storm is moving North, NNW, or NNE. I could only imagine where is the "center" debate.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.