Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
sleep well you got a busy day tomorrow
You have mail
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
oh snap! look at the convection fireing up this thing will be a hurricane by 11pm
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
1388. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting tino427:
I believe that a category 2 hurricaine is likely in south florida


not s fla
but anywhere from n cen fla n nw

tampa north to make it simple
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1387. hydrus
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ida moving basically due north, hard to tell at night, even on the short wave IR.
I am wondering if they will put advisories up for Western Cuba and North-Eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next two updates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1386. xcool
tino427 dnot said that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

THE NAM AND UKMET KEEP THE LID ON ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SMALL...INTENSE
LOW...AND SENDS IT INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS ALSO CARRIES A LOW
NORTHWARD...BUT HOOKS IT MORE SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE
BROADER CIRCULATION OF IDA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL CARRIES A CIRCULATION DISTINCT FROM
IDA INTO DAY 2...BUT THEN COMBINES THE TWO AND HURLS THE CYCLONE
INTO LOUISIANA. FOR DAYS...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A LOW PEELING
OFF AN INTENSE SHEAR AXIS THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLORID ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
BAY EVEN TODAY.
A MORE CONSERVATIVE VERSION OF THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
BE A PRUDENT APPROACH BASED ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE GULF
STATES.

Does anyone know what florid enhancement is?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Thanks jipmg
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Quoting Chicklit:
(okay, footnotes: essay is S.A.; your house looks like it dropped out of the sky.)
and there are more theories on shear than we have time or breath to discuss here.
either way, ida is loose in the caribbean with money in her pocket, looking for a cruise ship with gambling machines on it, prolly.lol
looks like there is presently a shield across NOLA and the panhandle that will not only deter but shun her away. i'm off now.
Thank you... much appreciated.... so much visual speech here... money in her pocket... head blown off....whats next wind shear stripped her down to.....
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1382. jipmg
bubbling up
1381. tino427
I believe that a category 2 hurricaine is likely in south florida,am from Miami by the way this thing is going to become a monster
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1380. centex
Quoting kmanislander:
Getting late over here so good night all.

Will catch up with you tomorrow.

Keep a close eye on Ida for me LOL
Night uk, since on wet side your veg will get nice soaking.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thank you for explaining that. I kept hearing the upper level winds were going to push it NE thru Fl. Was confuzzled. Now I got it. :)

You're welcome.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
1378. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


011L/TS/I
MARK
17.0N/83.9N
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1377. jipmg
Quoting Lafreniere16:
Is it possible for ida to come to LA, all the models have it right off the coast and turning away? Can she speed up enough to do that?


If she speeds up too much, there wont be anything left of her
Quoting SouthALWX:

Pretty accurate. That's also why the GFS has been forecasting the split in upper level and lower level centers. the LLC doesnt get entirely picked up and meanders W to WSW while the ULC is swept away leaving a naked swirl ( eg headless) behind.


Thank you for explaining that. I kept hearing the upper level winds were going to push it NE thru Fl. Was confuzzled. Now I got it. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting kmanislander:
Getting late over here so good night all.

Will catch up with you tomorrow.

Keep a close eye on Ida for me LOL
sleep well you got a busy day tomorrow
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting kmanislander:
Getting late over here so good night all.

Will catch up with you tomorrow.

Keep a close eye on Ida for me LOL
will do good night i will be hitting the sack soon too waiting to see the 10 PM
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Is it possible for ida to come to LA, all the models have it right off the coast and turning away? Can she speed up enough to do that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Getting late over here so good night all.

Will catch up with you tomorrow.

Keep a close eye on Ida for me LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ida moving basically due north, hard to tell at night, even on the short wave IR.
agree. convection is starting to get real good
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
(okay, footnotes: essay is S.A.; your house looks like it dropped out of the sky.)
and there are more theories on shear than we have time or breath to discuss here.
either way, ida is loose in the caribbean with money in her pocket, looking for a cruise ship with gambling machines on it, prolly.lol
looks like there is presently a shield across NOLA and the panhandle that will not only deter but shun her away. i'm off now.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
IDA.30kts-1006mb-159N-839W. Navy Site
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Ida moving basically due north, hard to tell at night, even on the short wave IR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

ok, i get it. you're the essay!
um. your icon is vaguely reminiscent of oz.
You have lost me.... Essay... I know OZ is a blogger here.. not sure about his Icon though
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting jipmg:


The stronger the more east it will go, the weaker the more west, stronger= upper level steering, weaker= lower level steering

Pretty accurate. That's also why the GFS has been forecasting the split in upper level and lower level centers. the LLC doesnt get entirely picked up and meanders W to WSW while the ULC is swept away leaving a naked swirl ( eg headless) behind.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
havent use wu mail not sure how to, send me mail let me see .

sent mail.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
havent use wu mail not sure how to, send me mail let me see .
Red at the top
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1331 lol

since i live in sw florida, near ft myers, i am watching ida very carefully. while i am not very concerned about a strong system possibly hitting us, even a weak system can cause headaches for alot of people.

i believe its moving faster than the NHC has thought it would. its ahead of their forecast points already. since the trough is supposed to be in the gulf in the mon-wensday time frame, what would happen if ida would beat the trough to the gulf? would that mean a more northerly route, perhaps panhandle area?

i also believe that ida has the POTENTIAL to reach strong cat 1 status. it put on an impressive intensification before striking central america, and that was with much lower TCHP. now its over an area with much higher values and intensification is even more probable, in my opinion.

im also thinking that if it beats the trough to the gulf, it will beat the majority of the bad shear that would destroy it. this will lead to a stronger system at landfall. still too early to give a specific landfall area, but i would say everyone from pensicola east and south to the florida keys should pay attention to ida.
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1361. unf97
Quoting jipmg:


The stronger the more east it will go, the weaker the more west, stronger= upper level steering, weaker= lower level steering


Agreed.
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Quoting Weather456:
Ida is loving those warm waters





whats scary is it still has alot higher TCHP waters to move into, its just on the edge of the 60's
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Quoting Chicklit:

well yes i'm an essay. but why would this be a rhetorical question? shear is up ahead of ida.
why it wouldn't tear her up is for people who know what they're talking about to explain, or not as they see fit.
Essay? not sure about that! It was confusing because many blogers were sayin no to wind shear previous to your post and then your post changed that?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1358. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


Looks like Ida is going to get to about 27N and then the trough will send her anywhere from SW to SE.


The stronger the more east it will go, the weaker the more west, stronger= upper level steering, weaker= lower level steering
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Why is the quick sat different in the evening?


Due to overpass of a ground station. The actual pass over Ida was 2009/11/06 23:26:56 QUIK 696 Link but the sat then is over the ocean, with no stations to report the data.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
She does look like a very thirsty girl after that long trip over dry land!
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Quoting centex:
Maybe does not matter because head ripped off, not my quote. But models not showing any consensus.



Holy Cow!
How'd you like to be the person at NHC who has to present a graphical outlook on that. Can't wait for the 10PM. It could go anywhere according to the models.
.
We're talking umbrella. A big umbrella..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1354. IKE
Quoting centex:
Maybe does not matter because head ripped off, not my quote. But models not showing any consensus.




Looks like Ida is going to get to about 27N and then the trough will send her anywhere from SW to SE.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Ida is headed right smack up on gcm, there is little doubt in my mind .


Relax. That is not the track.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
havent use wu mail not sure how to, send me mail let me see .
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting SouthALWX:

yes I live just north of mobile. currently attendinf USA trying so desperately hard to do all this math -.- ...
Cool, I live in NW Mobile County. USA is a great school. I cant rememeber a storm getting this close in NOV. Ive lived here since i was a kid and none come to mind in the 30 years ive lived here.
1350. WAHA
Do you think I will suceed?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Why is the quick sat different in the evening?


It's not so much different but comes out later, much later than the ascending passes (AM) relative to the morning pass.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I caught that earlier and was going to make a smart alek response but I had posed a question to you 2-3 post before the "Mighty-Mighty" comment of yours and was hoping for a response and thought being a S-A would prevent you from answering...

ok, i get it. you're the essay!
um. your icon is vaguely reminiscent of oz.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Confirmation was that he was Spanish.

Very Sad.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Why is the quick sat different in the evening?


Sluggish after a long day of orbiting lol
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1345. centex
Maybe does not matter because head ripped off, not my quote. But models not showing any consensus.


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Quoting Weather456:


should be out anytime soon...but QS is so unpredictable in the evening.
Why is the quick sat different in the evening?
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Lets just go back to N movement for the time being! LOL
Evening everyone.. So what have I missed.. Haven't been on in a while and now I see Ida...
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Ida is headed right smack up on gcm, there is little doubt in my mind .
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting stormsurge39:
Do you live in S Al.

yes I live just north of mobile. currently attendinf USA trying so desperately hard to do all this math -.- ...
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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