Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's how I understand it. I tried googling florid and peripheral enhancement. I didn't get a hit.

Note to self...if a term cannot be found by google then it probably shouldn't be used.
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any affects from ida if she comes north then east track up here in panhandle??? they callin for 70% rain here on tuesday????
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Looks like she pushed off just in time for a Dmax snack. Anybody know what the difference in Zatarains Regular Boil and the Pro Boil? TIA
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Quoting Weather456:
I'm trying to figure out what Ida looks like



Not sure what you mean 456...Is IDA improving in appearance at a rate you expected?
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1436. tino427
Quoting xcool:
tino427 dnot said that
yes I did mention this possibility
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flor·id (flôrd) adj. Of a bright red or ruddy color.

Thesaurus words for "enhancement": amplification, blowing up, blowup, enlargement, intensification,

ie...

OMG BIG RED BLOB on IR sat. image
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's how I understand it. I tried googling florid and peripheral enhancement. I didn't get a hit.
I googled florid enhancement and saw how florid was defined.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
It is obviously a TS at next update satellite data shows impressive banding features, convection is wrapping around the center and Ida is stealing all the moisture available to her. In addition buoys not even near the coc are picking up wind speeds of 25mph.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

After it reaches the southern gomex, it is predicted that a strong trough will scoot in and rip Ida's head off. strong westerly shear should take Ida from a TC to extra tropical though the pressure gradient all across the northern gomex could be high enough to support winds up to TS strength causing minor beach erosion.. Surf's up! =P I give her 24-36 hours to mature because at this point in time it's not looking good for her down the line.
Sheer? (from an earlier post)
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
From what I can tell, if Ida gets in the GOM quicker shear will be a much bigger issue than 48hrs + out.
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I'm trying to figure out what Ida looks like

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
expect freqent squalls movin from the east towards the west till storm to your west is north of your location thats about it maybe some gusty winds in heavy embedded thundershowers
Thanks but I am still watching it closely because it is still south of my co-ordinate and we are just south of Isle of Youth Cuba.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Has it changed again?
I was looking at post 1413
1426. unf97
Quoting portcharlotte:


Of course, the whole system is leaning to the right. These storms rarely reach the north Gulf Coast. The run NE and cross Florida and out to sea. After that winter begins for Florida.


This is in line to what I think is going to happen as well. I agree with this. Climatology this time of year usually favors this scenario as well.
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Quoting thelmores:
Ida well on her way back to storm status......

I think there is a reasonable possibility Ida could attain Hurricane status again before she hits the rough conditions ahead.....

I still say there is a possibility Ida may try to cross Florida and get into the Atlantic....



No squiggly lines? :(
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think that would mean on the edges ????????


That's how I understand it. I tried googling florid and peripheral enhancement. I didn't get a hit.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
That shear forecast doesnt look bad for Ida!
Has it changed again?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting Seflhurricane:
weather any new info on IDA are we looking on an upgrade at 10 PM and has it still been moving due north i dont see any W or E jogs


Don't know yet...I'm still waiting on QS.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Hurricane?? LOL BS... maybe by 11am tomorrow morning at best. TS at 11pm is *possible*.
ok we will see if not by 11 it will be by sunrise, and you can take that to the bank!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting thelmores:
Ida well on her way back to storm status......

I think there is a reasonable possibility Ida could attain Hurricane status again before she hits the rough conditions ahead.....

I still say there is a possibility Ida may try to cross Florida and get into the Atlantic....



Of course, the whole system is leaning to the right. These storms rarely reach the north Gulf Coast. The run NE and cross Florida and out to sea. After that winter begins for Florida.
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1419. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about the Cayman Islands ?
expect freqent squalls movin from the east towards the west till storm to your west is north of your location thats about it maybe some gusty winds in heavy embedded thundershowers
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Quoting Weather456:


weather any new info on IDA are we looking on an upgrade at 10 PM and has it still been moving due north i dont see any W or E jogs
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thank you. :)
I think that would mean on the edges ????????
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting CCstormer:
That shear forecast doesnt look bad for Ida!
1415. xcool



i seeing a kaboom ooh man we here gooo

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Quoting eyesontheweather:
I am pretty sure that is what they put in toothpaste to help prevent cavities... Otherwise someone believes it is a weather thing
LOL
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Ida well on her way back to storm status......

I think there is a reasonable possibility Ida could attain Hurricane status again before she hits the rough conditions ahead.....

I still say there is a possibility Ida may try to cross Florida and get into the Atlantic....

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Peripheral enhancement


Thank you. :)
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IMO Ida 16.5N 84.2W its about 10 hours ahead of tropical points. moving NNW/NW. Will see!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about the Cayman Islands ?
unlikely just some good rain nothing more for the cayman islands to get IDA it wold need to move NNE TO NE now
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1407. jipmg
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about the Cayman Islands ?


expect at minimum alot of clouds and rain
1406. xcool
anti-cyclone building over Ida ????
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Quoting stormpetrol:
KEEPEROFTHEGATE, I think you're right on the button or very close, I have it at around 16.8/83.8
yeap i agree too
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1404. jipmg
this thing is definately slower than it was before..
Quoting homelesswanderer:
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

THE NAM AND UKMET KEEP THE LID ON ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SMALL...INTENSE
LOW...AND SENDS IT INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS ALSO CARRIES A LOW
NORTHWARD...BUT HOOKS IT MORE SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE
BROADER CIRCULATION OF IDA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL CARRIES A CIRCULATION DISTINCT FROM
IDA INTO DAY 2...BUT THEN COMBINES THE TWO AND HURLS THE CYCLONE
INTO LOUISIANA. FOR DAYS...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A LOW PEELING
OFF AN INTENSE SHEAR AXIS THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLORID ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
BAY EVEN TODAY.
A MORE CONSERVATIVE VERSION OF THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
BE A PRUDENT APPROACH BASED ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE GULF
STATES.

Does anyone know what florid enhancement is?
I am pretty sure that is what they put in toothpaste to help prevent cavities... Otherwise someone believes it is a weather thing
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1402. bjdsrq
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
oh snap! look at the convection fireing up this thing will be a hurricane by 11pm


Hurricane?? LOL BS... maybe by 11am tomorrow morning at best. TS at 11pm is *possible*.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


interests along yucatan ne tip and extreme w cuba from island youth west should closly watch the progression and development of ida at this time
What about the Cayman Islands ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


011L/TS/I
MARK
17.0N/83.9N
KEEPEROFTHEGATE, I think you're right on the button or very close, I have it at around 16.8/83.8
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Quoting hydrus:
I am wondering if they will put advisories up for Western Cuba and North-Eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next two updates.
likely tomorrow for the areas mentioned
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1398. unf97
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
oh snap! look at the convection fireing up this thing will be a hurricane by 11pm


Maybe that is jumping the gun a bit. I think it will be a 50 mph tropical storm by the next advisory. But, I definitely think it will reach hurricane status (Cat 1) sometime tomorrow if the signs of organization continue, as it is apparently now.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
oh snap! look at the convection fireing up this thing will be a hurricane by 11pm
you really need sleep LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting homelesswanderer:
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

THE NAM AND UKMET KEEP THE LID ON ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SMALL...INTENSE
LOW...AND SENDS IT INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS ALSO CARRIES A LOW
NORTHWARD...BUT HOOKS IT MORE SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE
BROADER CIRCULATION OF IDA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL CARRIES A CIRCULATION DISTINCT FROM
IDA INTO DAY 2...BUT THEN COMBINES THE TWO AND HURLS THE CYCLONE
INTO LOUISIANA. FOR DAYS...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A LOW PEELING
OFF AN INTENSE SHEAR AXIS THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLORID ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
BAY EVEN TODAY.
A MORE CONSERVATIVE VERSION OF THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
BE A PRUDENT APPROACH BASED ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE GULF
STATES.

Does anyone know what florid enhancement is?
Peripheral enhancement
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
1395. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
I am wondering if they will put advisories up for Western Cuba and North-Eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next two updates.


interests along yucatan ne tip and extreme w cuba from island youth west should closly watch the progression and development of ida at this time
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not s fla
but anywhere from n cen fla n nw

tampa north to make it simple
maybe we dont know the models are constantly changing now they say its going to stop near the latitude of tampa bay,fl and head either SW or SE WHo Knows
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1393. xcool
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1392. jipmg
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not s fla
but anywhere from n cen fla n nw

tampa north to make it simple


Anyone in the cone can get hit even cuba
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
oh snap! look at the convection fireing up this thing will be a hurricane by 11pm


are you serious?

There is NO way a hurricane at 10pm

quit stirring up the blog
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
sleep well you got a busy day tomorrow
You have mail
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.