Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I'm not comparing it to anything, Ida is a 35 mph tropical depression right now. According to CIMSS it is under 20 knots of shear, with the very northern tip under 30 knots of shear.

A tropical depression under 20 knots of shear is going to look a little messy, that's the way it is. No comparisons.


Messy compared to what exactly?

This time yesterday it was a naked swirl pretty much and was still a 35mph TD
I analyzed the QS even more and found 35 knot winds near the center but the bulk appears in the cloud canopy to the north.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1488. miajrz
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Nope, back and forth....back and forth....think tennis ball here


aka The Wiper Effect.
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I'm not comparing it to anything, Ida is a 35 mph tropical depression right now. According to CIMSS it is under 20 knots of shear, with the very northern tip under 30 knots of shear.

A tropical depression under 20 knots of shear is going to look a little messy, that's the way it is. No comparisons.
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Nope, back and forth....back and forth....think tennis ball here
oooohh boooy!!!
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Quoting tino427:
I also bolieve,this storm will head towards tampa,but than will go due south east hitting miami


If Ida ever starts any Southward motion, I would say there is a better chance of this motion being Westerly...... not easterly......
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IDA with every update on the IR Images looks better and better
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Quoting Weather456:
Widespread 30-35 knot winds, with isolated 40 knot winds. That was 2 hrs ago.


I'd say we're looking at Tropical Storm Ida now judging by the quickscat, Imo.
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Quoting thelmores:


Yea..... kinda tired tonight! LOL


Those were the days. :)
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
1481. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Weather456:


They want to anger her like they did when she was down in the SW Caribbean. lmao

yeah its ok lets see what they are sayin in six more hrs
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


If you google the word google do you end up just going in circles?
Nope, back and forth....back and forth....think tennis ball here
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Quoting Weather456:
Isn't the center a bit off from the satellite center at 2300Z?



that definately looks like an upgrade to a 45 MPH Storm to me
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Widespread 30-35 knot winds, with isolated 40 knot winds. That was 2 hrs ago. Ida is a tropical storm, atleast unofficially.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Isn't the center a bit off from the satellite center at 2300Z?



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1476. miajrz
Always like looking at our wmd guys, particularly the hard right tick on the storm track at the end.

Link

They're conservative--as a quasi-gov, they've got to be--but it's interesting that of the "head right" contingent, they're not going with with either UKMET or HWFR (who pull u-eys).

(Could we just use WAW for "watch and wait?)

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Quoting tornadofan:


No squiggly lines? :(


Yea..... kinda tired tonight! LOL
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This season i am not one to think storms are underforecasted but I have a feeling this one is. I am surprised NHC does not have even one point as a cat 1. Too many favorable things pointing towards a Cat 1 even if it doesnt last long and hit a shear zone in the Gulf.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
As much sense as a lot of other things on here I guess LOL


Lol. Yep.
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Another note to self...Before google there was not a term for google....


If you google the word google do you end up just going in circles?
Quoting Weather456:


yea

I am very proud to say...Ida has been following my forecast over the past 3 days.

From my update this morning

This is due to the terrain-type that Ida is moving through – warm humid swamps known as the Mosquito Coast. Ida is expected to emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras later this afternoon at which point, due to some existing shear, modest strengthening could occur and Ida could regain tropical storm status by Saturday. It is already beginning to show signs, by looking at the convection north of Ida, that the storm will have little trouble regaining tropical storm status and there is a modest chance that rapid intensification could occur over the next 4 days while Ida is moving slowly over the Northwest Caribbean.


Thanks 456....I wish we had many 456s on this blog
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Another note to self...Before google there was not a term for google....


So very true.
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IDA is still in a state of Depression
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i rmember lenny thats the one that traversed the caribbean from west to east wierd one!
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Quoting Weather456:


They want to anger her like they did when she was down in the SW Caribbean. lmao



Sounds like it lol
Quoting JupiterFL:

Note to self...if a term cannot be found by google then it probably shouldn't be used.
Another note to self...Before google there was not a term for google....
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
flor·id (flôrd) adj. Of a bright red or ruddy color.

Thesaurus words for "enhancement": amplification, blowing up, blowup, enlargement, intensification,

ie...

OMG BIG RED BLOB on IR sat. image


Lol. Thank you. Now why didn't they just say that in the first place? :)
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That's a heck of a right turn there...
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local met said possibly in direct affects if ida becomes extra tropical cause wind field and moisture would greatly expand, but im assuming that depends on exact track.. im sure it'll be breezy from ida and high pressure gradient all along gulf coast??
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Ida isn't looking good?

compared to what the naked swirl she was yesterday or the hurricane she was before landfall in Nicaragua

geez Ida, you steadily intensify once and they expect the world out of you, Ida has been over water for 6 hours, cut the storm some slack lmao


They want to anger her like they did when she was down in the SW Caribbean. lmao

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1461. jipmg
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
is it me or has ida stalled??


like I said its definately slower, but I dont think it stalled
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I got sites for satellite enhancement over Florida. Lol. Ok did it again without the enhancement said looking like a flower. Which some satellite shots do look that way. I guess that makes sense?
As much sense as a lot of other things on here I guess LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8421
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
When's the next aircraft recon?


Saturday 1600Z
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1458. tino427
I also bolieve,this storm will head towards tampa,but than will go due south east hitting miami
Member Since: November 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
When I googled it, I got a bunch of medical sites. I guess the term is also used with spinal cords.
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Ida isn't looking good?

compared to what? the naked swirl she was yesterday? or the hurricane she was before landfall in Nicaragua?

geez Ida, you steadily intensify once and they expect the world out of you, Ida has been over water for 6 hours, cut the storm some slack lmao
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Ida is about to enter the trench area, where the higher TCHP's are. If there's going to be some sort of rapid intensifying, it would happen here. But Ida's not lookin' too good at the moment.
IDA has alot of warm water all the way to the yucatan it intensified north of panama in not that warm water, yes it has a better chance but lets see
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well at least it won't be a Lenny, Weather456 :)

10 years ago they said major hurricanes in November were rare.

And in the last 10 years we've had:

Lenny......(933 mb / 150 mph) 1999
Michelle...(934 mb / 140 mph) 2001
Paloma.....(944 mb / 145 mph) 2008

Almost common!


oh gosh...I forgot its Lenny 10 year anniversary.

The storm that lasted for 3 days.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
is it me or has ida stalled??
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Quoting iluvjess:
Looks like she pushed off just in time for a Dmax snack. Anybody know what the difference in Zatarains Regular Boil and the Pro Boil? TIA


Pro Boil? Its hard enough to get the rice just right as it is. Did they really need to make a more sophisticated one.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I googled florid enhancement and saw how florid was defined.


I got sites for satellite enhancement over Florida. Lol. Ok did it again without the enhancement said looking like a flower. Which some satellite shots do look that way. I guess that makes sense?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Looks kinda messy, 40-45 at next advisory.


Ida seems far from messy
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Ida is about to enter the trench area, where the higher TCHP's are. If there's going to be some sort of rapid intensifying, it would happen here. But Ida's not lookin' too good at the moment.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5640
Quoting stormhank:
any affects from ida if she comes north then east track up here in panhandle??? they callin for 70% rain here on tuesday????
rain for sure with all the moisture from a developing gale center in the Bay of campeche a front from the northwest and moisture from IDA from the south, but none of us know if its going to be directly from iDA lots of possibilities At this time
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Quoting portcharlotte:


Not sure what you mean 456...Is IDA improving in appearance at a rate you expected?


yea

I am very proud to say...Ida has been following my forecast over the past 3 days.

From my update this morning

This is due to the terrain-type that Ida is moving through – warm humid swamps known as the Mosquito Coast. Ida is expected to emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras later this afternoon at which point, due to some existing shear, modest strengthening could occur and Ida could regain tropical storm status by Saturday. It is already beginning to show signs, by looking at the convection north of Ida, that the storm will have little trouble regaining tropical storm status and there is a modest chance that rapid intensification could occur over the next 4 days while Ida is moving slowly over the Northwest Caribbean.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1443. tino427
Quoting Seflhurricane:
maybe we dont know the models are constantly changing now they say its going to stop near the latitude of tampa bay,fl and head either SW or SE WHo Knows
I also don't bolieve it will become extra tropical
Member Since: November 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
Quoting Weather456:
I'm trying to figure out what Ida looks like



Looks kinda messy, 40-45 at next advisory.
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I feel like looking at the models is like looking at a 5 year old kid working on a coloring book...lines everywhere.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's how I understand it. I tried googling florid and peripheral enhancement. I didn't get a hit.

Note to self...if a term cannot be found by google then it probably shouldn't be used.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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