Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1540 - 1490

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Quoting Weather456:


Now after you look at the CIMSS shear maps, look at the latest infrared image loop and judge how much of that "20-30 knot shear" is affecting Ida.


I was just going by the map. Looking at pics and loops it looks like 10-15 knots of shear rather than 20-30. The WU shear maps show 0 shear over the storm. Every shear map shows something different which really perplexes me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If Danny and Erica were tropical storm than this is a HURRICANE! lol

Maybe in about 16 hours, my guesstimate is that Ida is a 45MPH TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Folks! Let the Depression play out.I laugh at the literal minute by minute analysis of the Depression.

Every short thunderstorm bursts means it's rapidly intensifying.Then if the cloud tops loss some color then it's "in trouble" or sheer has gotten hold of it.

I giggle to myself and see that patience is a virtue that is needed on this site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1537. ssmate
Quoting Astrophysics:
Ida is definitely getting her act together. Should be a hurricane sometime tomorrow. Too bad I can't keep more track of this storm since I will be taking the Physics GRE tomorrow morning. I've been studying for it since June but this past week I have been studying none stop for it on top of studying for an Optics exam that I had this Wednesday, finishing up my application for NASA Ames internship for next semester, writing essays for the NSF fellowship, and applying to Grad school for next Fall. I'm exhausted.


Slacker
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Is QuikScat showing you a center SW of what you see on satellite? Prone to doing that...


yea...slightly thereof.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


Tropical Storm Danny

God I love weather...lol

Which is why you are so good at what you do. Kudos to you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
She should put on a very colorfull display this evening. Perfect timing pushing off the coast. If you sleep tonight you'll miss it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1533. jipmg
Quoting FloridaTigers:
So, faster Ida = northern gulf coast landfall?

slower Ida = misses the trough and meanders?

Is this an oversimplified scope of things?


I don't think it can miss the trough I mean it is LATE NOVEMBER, unless its a dead tropical depression (like the ones saying it will meander forecast) I don't see it weakining into a TD considering the amount of moisture available..
Quoting Weather456:
Isn't the center a bit off from the satellite center at 2300Z?




Is QuikScat showing you a center SW of what you see on satellite? Prone to doing that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Danny and Erica were tropical storm than this is a HURRICANE! lol
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting jipmg:




Tropical Storm Danny

God I love weather...lol

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1529. unf97
Quoting stormhank:
We may not get many affects from Ida in panhandle if she trends to turn more east further south in gom?? any thoughts??


Time will tell. I think by Sunday we should have a somewhat better indication hopefully on what IDA will do. But, it is still a very complex forecast for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyways as Ida begins to move away from land it should begin to strenghthen and pull in moisture from its surrounding. QS wind barb in the NE quad, may indicate Ida is a Storm once again.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Depression Ida..

now where's that image of Erika and Danny as tropical storms

lol



yea no kidding lol, if Danny and Erika were tropical storms, than so is this
So, faster Ida = northern gulf coast landfall?

slower Ida = misses the trough and meanders?

Is this an oversimplified scope of things?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:

Danny and Erika never looked as good as TD Ida does right now.


that was my point :)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Depression Ida..

now where's that image of Erika and Danny as tropical storms

lol


Danny and Erika never looked as good as TD Ida does right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
later guys gonna get some rest got a funny feeling tomorrow is gonna be rough.
Agreed. You live in West Bay right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1522. jipmg
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Depression Ida..where's that image of Erika and Danny as tropical storms

lol



We may not get many affects from Ida in panhandle if she trends to turn more east further south in gom?? any thoughts??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ida is definitely getting her act together. Should be a hurricane sometime tomorrow. Too bad I can't keep more track of this storm since I will be taking the Physics GRE tomorrow morning. I've been studying for it since June but this past week I have been studying none stop for it on top of studying for an Optics exam that I had this Wednesday, finishing up my application for NASA Ames internship for next semester, writing essays for the NSF fellowship, and applying to Grad school for next Fall. I'm exhausted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1519. tino427
regardless how she looks,she is going to make it strong to a category 1 or 2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Messy compared to what exactly?

This time yesterday it was a naked swirl pretty much and was still a 35mph TD


I was mainly in response to the guy who said hurricane by 11. Was pretty much saying its too messy for that and will only be 40-45 mph.

So i guess im comparing it to a moderate/strong ts or so but im certainly not expecting it to be that strong when it just got off of land.

And regarding your other post, im glad its that way with different opinions, it would be too boring if everyone thought and said the same things.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1517. unf97
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
funny dr masters hasn't updated his blog this evening or has he?


No he hasn't been on with an update since earlier today. He'll check back in with another update tomorrow morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1516. hydrus
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I think people are overanalyzing this lol

"Oh she looks good"

"No she is in trouble"

"She is being sheared from the SW"

"No she isn't shear is fine"

"IF she moves any faster she will be sheared to death"

"She is slowed down from earlier"


LOL it is pretty funny

(She) wants a piece of Western Cuba. That area is still recovering from Gustav.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Depression Ida..

now where's that image of Erika and Danny as tropical storms

lol

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If Ida keeps heading north ahead of schedule then she is going to run right into the shear before it has a chance to lift north. Ida may be in trouble.


This would also give Ida a better chance of getting caught by the front coming, thus my expectation of a possible Florida crossing, perhaps around Cedar Key.....

But it would seem that possible tornado's spawned could be the biggest threat, as I believe Ida would have picked up forward speed significantly under this scenario..... I just for some intuition based reason don't think Ida will hit the northern Gulf Coast..... course I have been wrong before once or twice! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
later guys gonna get some rest got a funny feeling tomorrow is gonna be rough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Isn't the center a bit off from the satellite center at 2300Z?



Here is Image at 23:15 UTC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1511. jipmg
Quoting FloridaTigers:


Curious, where in Florida are you?


I actually hope that happens, a tropical storm packed with moisture hitting miami would be a good thing..
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thats a subjective judgement, they may or may not agree with you.


fair enough
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting tino427:
I also bolieve,this storm will head towards tampa,but than will go due south east hitting miami


Curious, where in Florida are you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


I for one would not be surprise...but Ida is a tropical storm. And you can get that by looking at the sat images alone.


Thats a subjective judgement, they may or may not agree with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
funny dr masters hasn't updated his blog this evening or has he?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1505. jipmg
Quoting Bordonaro:

At this moment, if in fact wind shear is 20KTS, Ida does not seem to know or care. My concern as a non-professional weather watcher is that RI will take place due to the high SST'S, regardless of shear!


That has happened before, when the SHEAR actually helped it develope (I think it was Alturo? Of 2006 that went form 45mph to 70mph winds in a couple of hours?) But It doesn't look like 20kt Shear over the center.. maybe 10KT, but I don't see anything blowing over
Quoting Weather456:


Now after you look at the CIMSS shear maps, look at the latest infrared image loop and judge how much of that "20-30 knot shear" is affecting Ida.

Well it depends on which direction the shear is coming from. I would also like to add that it still is pulling in some dry air from the continental air mass because its pulling in moisture from all quadrants the SW quad would be pulling air from the land mass which is not as moist as it is on the other 3 quad. I hope I kind of right.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting JupiterFL:


Pro Boil? Its hard enough to get the rice just right as it is. Did they really need to make a more sophisticated one.


Rice?? Who said anything about rice? lol I've got 20# of shrimp just out of the water, taters, onions, corn, shrooms, and deer sausage to boil for the game tomo. Roll Tide!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Don't be suprised if NHC does not upgrade to TS at 10 PM. QuikScat has a high intensity bias for TDs and weak TS. They may based on divorak, not sure.


I for one would not be surprise...but Ida is a tropical storm. And you can get that by looking at the sat images alone.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1501. jipmg
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I think people are overanalyzing this lol

"Oh she looks good"

"No she is in trouble"

"She is being sheared from the SW"

"No she isn't shear is fine"

"IF she moves any faster she will be sheared to death"

"She is slowed down from earlier"


LOL it is pretty funny



I know for sure its slower than before, I mean it was moving over 10mph towards the N-NNE and rushed off shore, now its like drifting northward of the northen coause of honduras
1500. xcool
too me she loooking sexy hot hot haha lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Weather456:


Now after you look at the CIMSS shear maps, look at the latest infrared image loop and judge how much of that "20-30 knot shear" is affecting Ida.

At this moment, if in fact wind shear is 20KTS, Ida does not seem to know or care. My concern as a non-professional weather watcher is that RI will take place due to the high SST'S, regardless of shear!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1498. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I'm not comparing it to anything, Ida is a 35 mph tropical depression right now. According to CIMSS it is under 20 knots of shear, with the very northern tip under 30 knots of shear.

A tropical depression under 20 knots of shear is going to look a little messy, that's the way it is. No comparisons.




you see the little L now look n of that up near isle of youth ne yuc its gonna drop look before you type
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I think people are overanalyzing this lol

"Oh she looks good"

"No she is in trouble"

"She is being sheared from the SW"

"No she isn't shear is fine"

"IF she moves any faster she will be sheared to death"

"She is slowed down from earlier"


LOL it is pretty funny



Only my 4th year of it, I've gotten used to it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I think people are overanalyzing this lol

"Oh she looks good"

"No she is in trouble"

"She is being sheared from the SW"

"No she isn't shear is fine"

"IF she moves any faster she will be sheared to death"

"She is slowed down from earlier"


LOL it is pretty funny

Back and Forth....Back and Forth....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't be suprised if NHC does not upgrade to TS at 10 PM. QuikScat has a high intensity bias for TDs and weak TS. They may based on divorak, not sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Now after you look at the CIMSS shear maps, look at the latest infrared image loop and judge how much of that "20-30 knot shear" is affecting Ida.


Nada, Zip, Zilch, Zero, Nil, Love, Bagel
I think people are overanalyzing this lol

"Oh she looks good"

"No she is in trouble"

"She is being sheared from the SW"

"No she isn't shear is fine"

"IF she moves any faster she will be sheared to death"

"She is slowed down from earlier"


LOL it is pretty funny

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I'm not comparing it to anything, Ida is a 35 mph tropical depression right now. According to CIMSS it is under 20 knots of shear, with the very northern tip under 30 knots of shear.

A tropical depression under 20 knots of shear is going to look a little messy, that's the way it is. No comparisons.


Now after you look at the CIMSS shear maps, look at the latest infrared image loop and judge how much of that "20-30 knot shear" is affecting Ida.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
If Ida keeps heading north ahead of schedule then she is going to run right into the shear before it has a chance to lift north. Ida may be in trouble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I'm not comparing it to anything, Ida is a 35 mph tropical depression right now. According to CIMSS it is under 20 knots of shear, with the very northern tip under 30 knots of shear.

A tropical depression under 20 knots of shear is going to look a little messy, that's the way it is. No comparisons.


Messy compared to what exactly?

This time yesterday it was a naked swirl pretty much and was still a 35mph TD

Viewing: 1540 - 1490

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.