Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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1590. hydrus
Quoting JupiterFL:


The motorcycles were cool but the really tight pants....not so much.
And ponches lame jokes...
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1589. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
If Ida make landfall as a tropical storm or as a subtropical, but still has tropical force wind speeds, what's the difference. Anyone?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
Quoting atmoaggie:
It's out:

"PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
"

I guess "0 DEGREES" would confuse? Whatever.

L8R.
I do not think there is a 0, there is 370 and then to 001.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Close enough

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM HONDURAS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOON...


Good night folkes
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
000
WTNT41 KNHC 070233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF IDA WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND
WAS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE CENTER...AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY.
NOAA BUOY 42057...LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 KT...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL AND MAY
NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IDA
IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS
PROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 360/6. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER MEXICO
ARE EXPECTED TO STEER IDA NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 72
HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS AND
HAVE FORCED THE MODEL CONSENSUS A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST. THE
FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS IS STILL COMPLEX AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
IDA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IDA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY
96 HOURS ONCE IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON
WHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT. ONLY THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW
IDA BECOMING PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A
MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT 120 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT...WHICH IS
JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.2N 84.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.1N 84.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 18.4N 84.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 19.7N 85.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.4N 86.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 25.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 87.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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1583. hydrus
Quoting MrstormX:


lol I went on their live "chat about penguins" and complained to the woman running it. I ended up getting ip banned, all because I want real weather chat. Thankfully I have this place!
Leave it to them to ban people who really want to know what is happening with the weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

Can't believe its still a TD, Oh well, we'll see what tomorrow brings, G'Nite.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting Weather456:
I'm really falling asleep so I cant make it to the 11PM advisory...been a long day.

night


Sleep well and thanks!

P.S. - 10pm est is 11 his time.
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It's out:

"PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH"

I guess "0 DEGREES" would confuse? Whatever. Thought so, anyway.

L8R.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

OMG sounds like Dracula..... Good Evening
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I know, the winds were initialized from measurements on a CHiP patrol motorcycle with a guy name Erik riding on it at 110 knots.


The motorcycles were cool but the really tight pants....not so much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95349
wtnt41 knhc 070233
tcdat1

tropical depression ida discussion number 11
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
1000 pm est fri nov 06 2009

a 2302 utc ssmis microwave pass indicated that the low-level center of ida was located just off the northeastern coast of honduras and was displaced to the south and southeast of the deep convection.
new convection is developing close to the center...and dvorak estimates from tafb and sab are 25 kt and 30 kt...respectively.
noaa buoy 42057...located about 150 n mi east-northeast of the center...recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 35 kt...but it appears that this occurred with the passage of a squall and may not be representative of the overall circulation. therefore...ida is kept as a tropical depression for this advisory...but it is probably very close to regaining tropical storm status.

ida continues to move northward at 360/6. a mid-level anticyclone between jamaica and hispaniola and a deep-layer trough over mexico are expected to steer ida north-northwestward through the next 72 hours. the track guidance is in good agreement during this period although the gfdl and hwrf models are the easternmost models and have forced the model consensus a little more to the east. the forecast beyond 72 hours is still complex and is dependent on how ida interacts with the front and shortwave trough over the gulf of mexico. most of the guidance shows ida becoming extratropical by
96 hours once it merges with the front...but the solutions vary on where the low goes next. only the 1200 utc ecmwf and ukmet show ida becoming picked up by a shortwave trough and moving northeastward over the northern gulf. the other models indicate a more pronounced southward motion after 96 hours...and the official forecast now shows a slow southeastward turn at 120 hours.

although waters are warm over the northwestern caribbean...vertical shear is expected to hamper much intensification over the next few days. the gfdl and hwrf make ida a hurricane over the central gulf of mexico...a scenario that does not seem plausible in the face of westerly shear that is expected to increase to 50 or 60 kt by day 4. the official forecast indicates some slow strengthening over the next several days but peaks the intensity at 45 kt...which is just below the intensity consensus.

it is of note that most of the global models are showing a large pressure gradient between a high over the southeastern united states and the tropical cyclone. this could contribute to a large area of strong winds over the gulf of mexico not directly attributable to ida.

forecast positions and max winds

initial 07/0300z 16.2n 84.0w 30 kt
12hr vt 07/1200z 17.1n 84.2w 35 kt
24hr vt 08/0000z 18.4n 84.8w 35 kt
36hr vt 08/1200z 19.7n 85.5w 40 kt
48hr vt 09/0000z 21.4n 86.5w 45 kt
72hr vt 10/0000z 25.5n 88.0w 45 kt
96hr vt 11/0000z 27.5n 87.0w 45 kt...extratropical
120hr vt 12/0000z 26.5n 85.6w 35 kt...extratropical
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
I'm really falling asleep so I cant make it to the 11PM advisory...been a long day.

night
Tropical Depression IDA RSS Feed icon Storm Archive
...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM HONDURAS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Still a depression as of 10 PM advisory - just got it
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

Greeting and salutations, earthling.
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening old man :)
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Quoting NortheastGuy:
Folks! Let the Depression play out.I laugh at the literal minute by minute analysis of the Depression.

Every short thunderstorm bursts means it's rapidly intensifying.Then if the cloud tops loss some color then it's "in trouble" or sheer has gotten hold of it.

I giggle to myself and see that patience is a virtue that is needed on this site.


Geez, where's the fun in that? :)
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Its 10pm lol

only about 10 more minutes 456


lol remember where I live. My eyes are half close....you would think I'm high if u see me.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Its 10pm lol

only about 10 more minutes 456

Yep....dat's what I am waiting on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
I'm really falling asleep so I cant make it to the 11PM advisory...been a long day.

night


Its 10pm lol

only about 10 more minutes 456
1566. xcool
now getting symmetrical
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I'm really falling asleep so I cant make it to the 11PM advisory...been a long day.

night
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MrstormX:
CHIPS, who uses that model? Better yet, what is that model?

The Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System
(CHIPS)
Kerry Emanuel
Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Atmospheric Component: (from Emanuel, 1995)
- Gradient and hydrostatic balance
- Potential radius coordinates give very fine (~ 1 km) resolution in eyewall
- Interior structure constrained by assumption of moist adiabatic lapse rates on angular momentum surfaces
- Axisymmetric
- Entropy defined in PBL and at single level in middle troposphere
- Convection based on boundary layer quasi-equilibrium postulate
- Surface fluxes by conventional aerodynamic formulae
- Thermodynamic inputs: Environmental potential
intensity and storm-induced SST anomalies

Ocean Component:
((Schade, L.R., 1997: A physical interpreatation of SST-feedback.
Preprints of the 22nd Conf. on Hurr. Trop. Meteor., Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, pgs. 439-440.)
- Mixing by bulk-Richardson number closure
- Mixed-layer current driven by hurricane model
surface wind

Let me know when you digest all of that.

Or, get the presentation from here: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

It has done well on some TCs this year and not so well on others. Compared to SHIPS, I think it might be an improvement...without initializing TD/TS Ida as an almost cat3, that is.
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Quoting HellaGoose:
If Ida were to become extra tropical in the gulf, would the NHC still put up tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings up for whatever area it would be affecting?

For winds 39-54MPH-Gale Warning
55-73MPH-Storm Warning
74+MPH-Hurricane Wind Warning
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting atmoaggie:

I know, the winds were initialized from measurements on a CHiP patrol motorcycle with a guy name Erik riding on it at 110 knots.
while crashing in slow motion
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Quoting hydrus:
I know, and pathetic is the right word.


lol I went on their live "chat about penguins" and complained to the woman running it. I ended up getting ip banned, all because I want real weather chat. Thankfully I have this place!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1560. unf97
Quoting MrstormX:
TWC is to busy showing March of the Penguins twice to give a tropical update, ore even local on the 8s. How pathetic.


It is embarrassing what has become of TWC. Everything changed with them when NBC bought them.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1559. hydrus
Quoting MrstormX:
TWC is to busy showing March of the Penguins twice to give a tropical update, ore even local on the 8s. How pathetic.
I know, and pathetic is the right word.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Ida were to become extra tropical in the gulf, would the NHC still put up tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings up for whatever area it would be affecting?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


maybe the model chipped. lol

I know, the winds were initialized from measurements on a CHiP patrol motorcycle with a guy name Erik riding on it at 110 knots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWC is to busy showing March of the Penguins twice to give a tropical update, ore even local on the 8s. How pathetic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Danny and Erika were classified based on objective data, aircraft Recon. They do have a different criteria when upgrading versus downgrading classification in that they will hang on longer before downgrading, unless they have objective data.


wow do you work for the NHC?

I should repeat myself:

I disagree with the NHC...I have in the past and I will in the future where I see fit. Case n point.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1554. ssmate
Quoting hydrus:
Yeah, I do all that in a hour....jk :)


I spent 45 minutes tonight scouring the waiver wire for a kicker for my fantasy football team and he is splitting an atom in his basement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the NWS from my area still says 70% rain wind for tuesday...Idas affects must be far reaching come tuesday...personally lookin at 18Z models she never really gets past 27N ..must be a combination of ida boc area and approaching front??? any thoughts?? always appreciated
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
CHIPS, who uses that model? Better yet, what is that model?
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Quoting Weather456:


that was my point :)


Danny and Erika were classified based on objective data, aircraft Recon. They do have a different criteria when upgrading versus downgrading classification in that they will hang on longer before downgrading, unless they have objective data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear lessened a bit at Belize.

From 0 UTC (6 CST):



Not sure what to make of the dewpoints...seems like it dried a bit, but there is also the early stop of readings. Leads one to believe in the possibility of a faulty...
(Dang, how it is measured, anyway. Surely not a psychrometer. Prolly an electronic hygrometer?)
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I believe that we may once again have TS Ida very soon. Ida's satellite presentation continues to improve. Heavy thunderstroms are increasing in coverage and intensity. The center of circulation is embedded within the developing convective mass and banding features, particularly on the northern side are more prominent. SSTs are going to be very conducive once the center moves a litte further north and the shear should have minimal affect as it appears to be weakening immediately ahead of the system according to shear forecasts. Will b an interesting day tomorrow IMO. Cayman...looks like some nasty squally weather for tonight and tomorrow!
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1548. hydrus
Quoting ssmate:


Slacker
Yeah, I do all that in a hour....jk :)
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Quoting Weather456:


There's a simple solution...actual satellite images are the best shear maps.


Exactly and regardless of what any shear map says, the satellite shows that shear is not that high
Quoting atmoaggie:
WTH is up with the CHIPS runs at 06 and 18 Z?



Pondering how in the world it initializes with a top end cat 2............................
............................
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................
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..
.
I may have to come back to that.


maybe the model chipped. lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


that was my point :)


Nearly every storm looked better than Danny and Erika though. No disrespect, just saying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WTH is up with the CHIPS runs at 06 and 18 Z?



Pondering how in the world it initializes with a top end cat 2............................
............................
...........................
..........................
.......................
....................
................
............
..........
........
......
....
..
.
I may have to come back to that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I was just going by the map. Looking at pics and loops it looks like 10-15 knots of shear rather than 20-30. The WU shear maps show 0 shear over the storm. Every shear map shows something different which really perplexes me.


There's a simple solution...actual satellite images are the best shear maps.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
After looking at water vapor loop ,I think the COC is around 16.6N/84.3W , she has wobbled a little west of due north imo , Ida is clearly a 50-55mph TS at this time imo, anyway we'll see what the NHC says at 10pm.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting FloridaTigers:
So, faster Ida = northern gulf coast landfall?

slower Ida = misses the trough and meanders?

Is this an oversimplified scope of things?

You also forgot the middle consensus: Ida moves on its current path and turns toward the NE typical of late Oct. and Nov. storms.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Weather456:


Now after you look at the CIMSS shear maps, look at the latest infrared image loop and judge how much of that "20-30 knot shear" is affecting Ida.


I was just going by the map. Looking at pics and loops it looks like 10-15 knots of shear rather than 20-30. The WU shear maps show 0 shear over the storm. Every shear map shows something different which really perplexes me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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