Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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HUM....i don't know Yet!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


The Perfect Storm II, GFDL is now on the boat for that!
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Quoting Dakster:
Tampaspin.... That looks UGLY for Florida, no matter where you are..


Ya, may not be no duck and run somewhere else from the possible monster to be.....this might actually be worse than a Cat.1 Hurricane over a much larger area.....JMO
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Quoting duajones78413:
Can anyone tell me what to expect in Corpus Christi in the next week? Taking forever to load pages here

7 Day Forecast NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Tonight: Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 58. East southeast wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Saturday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 83. East southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. East wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. North northeast wind around 14 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80. North wind between 13 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. North northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. North northwest wind between 11 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North wind around 11 mph.

Veterans Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

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Looking at the latest Images Ida really looks better and better with each frame
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Quoting StormW:




Seems to me that the shear forecasts are very much disagreeing with what the NHC says they say
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1632. Dakster
Tampaspin.... That looks UGLY for Florida, no matter where you are..
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
evenig storm!!! waiting for your opinion!!!
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I dont understand what they are seeing, they have really been conservative this season
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GFS has a nice loop of the collision of IDA with the XtraTropical Low and the Cold front.....This is gonna be an OUCHY event for severe weather across most of Florida if this pans out....WOW!
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this is nuts
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Good ole conservative NHC, just as expected.
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1625. Dakster
Anyone have a good video on hot towers handy???
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting stormpetrol:
10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

Can't believe its still a TD, Oh well, we'll see what tomorrow brings, G'Nite.

The NHC messed the current intensity up in my opinion. This system has boiling towers of convection in various areas all around the COC. Should be a 45-50MPH TS minumum.

New forecast track is very interesting!
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Can anyone tell me what to expect in Corpus Christi in the next week? Taking forever to load pages here
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Quoting A4Guy:
why is the NHC doing the updates at 10 and 4...instead of 11 and 5??
Because they are not on DST any more.
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Hi StormW and Weather456.....i just logged on! Been away all day.....do you both agree with NHC.....just a first glance....Shear 4 days out.....

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Quoting StormW:


Take your pick.



Oh well, i was right on both instances. And the NHC does not go by the magnetic compass.
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1618. Dakster
The annoying change from Daylight Time to Standard Time. Although not everywhere in the US changes.. Which just adds to the fun.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting StormW:


Take your pick.



I see the bottom one has 0 at the same place as 360 on the other so I guess both would be right. 0/360 is both N
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1616. Dakster
Stormw - I like your compass pictures... Now I can really confuse the people at work. :-)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting A4Guy:
why is the NHC doing the updates at 10 and 4...instead of 11 and 5??

Our time changed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Quoting A4Guy:
why is the NHC doing the updates at 10 and 4...instead of 11 and 5??



where on PST time zone and EST
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Since when are advisories released at 10PM Eastern and 4 PM Eastern? Isn't usually 5 and 11? Is it due to Ida's location?
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1612. xcool
lol
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1611. Dakster
This should help clear things up - boxing the compass, courtesy of wiki...

# Compass point Abbr. Traditional wind point True heading
1 North N Tramontana 0.00°
2 North by east NbE 11.25°
3 North-northeast NNE 22.50°
4 Northeast by north NEbN 33.75°
5 Northeast NE Greco Bora 45.00°
6 Northeast by east NEbE 56.25°
7 East-northeast ENE 67.50°
8 East by north EbN 78.75°
9 East E Levante 90.00°
10 East by south EbS 101.25°
11 East-southeast ESE 112.50°
12 Southeast by east SEbE 123.75°
13 Southeast SE Sirocco 135.00°
14 Southeast by south SEbS 146.25°
15 South-southeast SSE 157.50°
16 South by east SbE 168.75°
17 South S Ostro 180.00°
18 South by west SbW 191.25°
19 South-southwest SSW 202.50°
20 Southwest by south SWbS 213.75°
21 Southwest SW Libeccio 225.00°
22 Southwest by west SWbW 236.25°
23 West-southwest WSW 247.50°
24 West by south WbS 258.75°
25 West W Ponente 270.00°
26 West by north WbN 281.25°
27 West-northwest WNW 292.50°
28 Northwest by west NWbW 303.75°
29 Northwest NW Maestro 315.00°
30 Northwest by north NWbN 326.25°
31 North-northwest NNW 337.50°
32 North by west NbW 348.75°
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1610. A4Guy
why is the NHC doing the updates at 10 and 4...instead of 11 and 5??
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Quoting StormW:


In a tropical system, the maximum winds are found right near the center.

A subtropical system generally has an expanded wind field for one, and maximum sustained winds displaced well away from the center.

Thanks.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


No requirement... the order is.. steer course 000
I looked it up on the net, and the true north is "0".
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Wow i see our girl is starting to get her act together again...and NHC only has a TS...HUM?

Here is my Interactive LooP
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Quoting HellaGoose:
If Ida were to become extra tropical in the gulf, would the NHC still put up tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings up for whatever area it would be affecting?


Absolutely, tropical storm or hurricane warnings are usually land based warnings refering to expected wind conditions from tropical systems. Gale warnings are usually issued for marine conditions from a tropical or subtropical system. Tropical ie warm core systems can transition into a subtropical or cold core system expanding the wind field farther from the core. The NoName storm was subtropical (noreaster) and delivered up to hurricane force winds to a large area from florida all the way up the east coast of the US. Warnings were very late since the storm came from nowhere very unexpectedly and a lot of mariners were caught off guard, it also damaged many coastal homes and properties. That was a great question. They would keep tropical or hurricane watches/warnings up on land even if Ida began a transition into a subtropical system as it approached as long as the wind conditions were expected.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think you are wrong. 360 is direct north and then would be 001. Someone post the chart please. TIA


No requirement... the order is.. steer course 000
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Good evening all, StormW, Weather456 and others. I am really having a problem getting past pages to load on the blog. It takes a good while just to get the current page to load. Can someone give me some insight as what to expect in Corpus Christi, Texas over the next week? I see some talk about Ida and the situation in the BOC mentioned but dont know the details. Thanks in advance
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Quoting xcool:

LOL ... Jacksonville isn't in the cone...hehehe
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Quoting mossyhead:
I was wrong. Sorry, there is a 0.
I think you are wrong. 360 is direct north and then would be 001. Someone post the chart please. TIA
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Quoting mossyhead:
I was wrong. Sorry, there is a 0.


Actually... its 000
they are all done in 3 digits.
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1597. beell
An increase in forward speed would seem to be in the plan if you look at the distance between the 7PM Sunday to 7PM Monday plots on the 5-day.
oops-shoulda waited. times edited to reflrct 10PM advisory!



Increased foward speed and a clear northward steering component as the shortwave now crossing the Baha heads towards this system.

RAMSDISS wv/ir
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IMO NHC put out the same vanilla discussion. Essentially there are many uncertainties that can not be answered now
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Quoting mossyhead:
I do not think there is a 0, there is 370 and then to 001.
I was wrong. Sorry, there is a 0.
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1594. unf97
So the NHC decided against upgrading to tropical storm at 10:00 p.m. Being on the conservative side for now. They will probably upgrade it in the morning.
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Just happened to be goung thru some old VHS tapes that I have, and came across a Jan. 2, 1999 broadcast that I taped off the Weather Channel, it was great then, we had Marshall Seese at the desk,Jim Cantore out in Chicago in a snow storm, and Paul Kocin analysing the storm, plenty of radar tours, and weather maps. Thats the way it should be.
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Quoting StormW:


Evening!

How are ya and SWMBO tonight?


Alive and kicking... and wishing you guys were getting all of this rain... and this morning... hail!!
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1590. hydrus
Quoting JupiterFL:


The motorcycles were cool but the really tight pants....not so much.
And ponches lame jokes...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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