Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Bastardi has been posted. Look at #2492.
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2539. Drakoen
Ida looks to be intensifying nicely with not signs of shear disrupting the system. Ida could easily reach hurricane strength if the trend continues. Microwave imagery shows an eyewall developing:

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Quoting IKE:
Interesting statement from Bastardi....

will probably have an end game path closer to Kate in the Gulf. I am becoming convinced this will make it ashore


Kate...did that make landfall around Tally? Bastardi is always interesting....
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out for now. Back later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting WxLogic:
Hehe... funny

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I doubt it will take until tomorrow for Ida to reach HURR strength.


Where is ORCA's blown forecast link when you need it.......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting WxLogic:
Appears the HH is having difficulties sending data or the data processing center getting it or they decided to prep another plane due to plane problems.


Thats not fun.
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2533. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:
Interesting statement from Bastardi....

will probably have an end game path closer to Kate in the Gulf. I am becoming convinced this will make it ashore


Ike, do you have reference to the "Kate" being referred to? With my luck, I'll look in the archive and get the "Kate" from the wrong year. ;-)
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2532. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
Hey StormW, Could Ida,the blob in the gulf, and the cold front form a perfect storm for the Northeast?

Start saying that a couple of days ago...for the northeast Gulf, that is...
And yer leaving out EP96.
Collect all that vorticity and swing it along the cold front and...
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IDA is currently a mighty tiny storm and can get spinning very fast.....CAT 2 or higher in the next 24hrs while its going the the Gulf Stream loop would not shock me at all!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2528. WxLogic
Appears the HH is having difficulties sending data or the data processing center getting it or they decided to prep another plane due to plane problems.
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Quoting P451:


I am a contributing member to this blog. I got attacked, I defended myself, and continued to get attacked.

What would you do?

Again, I apologize, and will let it lie where it may. Probably in a ban which is likely deserved.

Again, apologies, but I'm not going to get trashed and not reply in kind.

Learn self control. If you ignore them, they will go away. All they want is drama. And it does not solve anything getting yourself banned.
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Quoting Weather456:
Ida is at 60 mph or 50 knots and the NHC barely gave her a chance to become that strong. As i said last night...I have a right to disagree with the NHC where I see fit. I'm not stupid.


Right 456..NHC is not God and those with PHDS sometimes over analyze and lose common sense
on the total picture, IMO we can see this system will be a CAT! this PM and we will see more of a track to the right as time goes on, November storms turn right ahead of the westerlies well before the N. Gulf Coast
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Quoting lawntonlookers:
Good morning to all. IDA appears to have orginized pretty well overnight. It also appears that I96 is starting to track NE heading toward IDA. Also the storm in the BOC. It looks as if everything is going together as P451 was thinking yesterday. HHH should be in the air shortly.


already in the air and a few hundred miles into the flight.
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Quoting kmanislander:


We were discussing this yesterday. The NHC have a tendency to underestimate the intensity forecast in the NW Caribbean.

From 24 hrs ago I and others called for rapid intensification once Ida got out over the open water again and that process is underway IMO.

Just too much heat content there. There was no way this system was going to cross over it and remain a minimal TS at 45 mph.


Not only that...but upper dynamics is changing around Ida. Not many models could handle this kinda of complexity that is why the shear forecast was so different from what was going on.

The GFS however, is capable of showing the development of anticyclonic outflow of storms that don't have one. I find it the best model for forecasting the upper environment.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good morning to all. IDA appears to have orginized pretty well overnight. It also appears that I96 is starting to track NE heading toward IDA. Also the storm in the BOC. It looks as if everything is going together as P451 was thinking yesterday. HH should be in the air shortly.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
Quoting TampaSpin:


OH NO....didn't they tell you the season was over......LOL......hey Kman....i think we was correct with our Hurricane time frame.


You got that right. Ida is now at the point where it will be able to insulate the core from all but fairly strong shear.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
2521. IKE
Interesting statement from Bastardi....

will probably have an end game path closer to Kate in the Gulf. I am becoming convinced this will make it ashore
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hey StormW, Could Ida,the blob in the gulf, and the cold front form a perfect storm for the Northeast?
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2519. bjdsrq
Hey P. Doug, Real anxious to know what JB has to say. Quit teasing us! ;-)

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Atmo,

NOGAPS is the boundary/initial conditions.



Thanks, nrt. I thought it might be.
You have collected a wealth of information that you are able to call upon better than I...
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from 10 am doscussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT..EXT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W 40 KT..EXT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 35 KT..EXT
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GOES 1KM now in Rapid Scan.

Updating every 5 minutes or so.

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2514. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:


lol 15 mph

They dont know easy it is for the hurricane hunters to find that.


lol
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Quoting kmanislander:
Ida on the way to CAT 1 by this evening. Could surprise and make Cat 2 before the GOM.


OH NO....didn't they tell you the season was over......LOL......hey Kman....i think we was correct with our Hurricane time frame.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2512. Ossqss
Cool view of Ida in the big picture :)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
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Quoting Weather456:
Ida is at 60 mph or 50 knots and the NHC barely gave her a chance to become that strong. As i said last night...I have a right to disagree with the NHC where I see fit. I'm not stupid.


We were discussing this yesterday. The NHC has a tendency to underestimate the intensity forecast in the NW Caribbean.

From 24 hrs ago I and others called for rapid intensification once Ida got out over the open water again and that process is underway IMO.

Just too much heat content there. There was no way this system was going to cross over it and remain a minimal TS at 45 mph.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting WxLogic:
Hehe... funny

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I doubt it will take until tomorrow for Ida to reach HURR strength.


lol 15 mph

They dont know easy it is for the hurricane hunters to find that.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
You have been as accurate if not more than the NHC all season long. Good job Weather456
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IMO the NHC track is very conservative and too far to the left. The satellite presentation shows a right leaning cyclone.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Odd how the Navy model and the Navy model both saw thataway .

Maybe those 2 Navy models have the same boundary/initial conditions (or NOGAPS is the NGFDL boundary/initial conditions)


Atmo,

NOGAPS is the boundary/initial conditions.


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2504. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:


Not posted...yet.


I don't know if it will change much (we'll know shortly.) What I'm interested in seeing is the next run of models, 18Z, that will have the recon data ingested. These won't be available until about 7pm EST. So, the next NHC forecast to incorporate these runs won't be known until 10pm EST tonight. See ya then.
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2503. WxLogic
Hehe... funny

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I doubt it will take until tomorrow for Ida to reach HURR strength.
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I bet that new model data has really thrown them for a loop on that forecast track. I am sure they will be working hard all day today.
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P451: Plenty of times others in here have to deal with that. One definitive reply and then leave it. Use the iggy and worry not about what that person thinks of you. The rest of us know you better.

Cannot turn into a two-way tirade spanning 3 pages...
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Quoting P451:


I am a contributing member to this blog. I got attacked, I defended myself, and continued to get attacked.

What would you do?

Again, I apologize, and will let it lie where it may. Probably in a ban which is likely deserved.

Again, apologies, but I'm not going to get trashed and not reply in kind.





like water off a ducks back.... Consider the source and don't sweat it. Thick skin is a plus around here.
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Ida is at 60 mph or 50 knots and the NHC barely gave her a chance to become that strong. As i said last night...I have a right to disagree with the NHC where I see fit. I'm not stupid.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Idas over the hottest waters in the Atlantic with an eyewall. I'd watch this one closely.....
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pensacola doug, they cant fly when it is over land and it jsut came off the coast last night. They are flying a mission as we speak.
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2496. IKE
...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
And now that we have 50 knots, CHIPS is 15 knots wrong from in the first 7 hours of the forecast...
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Ida on the way to CAT 1 by this evening. Could surprise and make Cat 2 before the GOM.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Well okeydokey then. Heeerrreessssss Joey B.!


SATURDAY 6 A.M.
What's in a name and number with Gulf hurricanes.

Amazing, no recons yet on this. I guess people scheduling these things are so confident of their ideas, none are needed. To people like me, who cherish hard data when I can actually look at it, it sure would have been nice to have that as we see Ida's CDO explode. It's not like this is ANA out in the middle of nowhere with Saharan dust surrounding it.

The three Gulf named systems in November I am most familiar with are Inga back in 1961, Jeanne in 1980 and Kate in 1985. Notice the letters representing 9, 10, 11 in the alphabet. So the frequency of storms up to this point makes this right in the ballpark. If one discards Grace, but counts the Jersey Devil, then we are there anyway.

The past few days you have been seeing (and reading) my concern that this would be a much stronger event in the northwest Caribbean than TPC ideas. I still am in that camp and it would appear Ida is concurring. She is closest to Jeanne in her current action, which became a category 2 in the Gulf in November 1980 (major snowstorm here in State College within 10 days of that), but will probably have an end game path closer to Kate in the Gulf. I am becoming convinced this will make it ashore though who knows, with TPC already banging the extratropical idea, which would be great if it stalls, they may already have put their line in the sand. I simply can't tell what they will do. For our purposes, we will use Dr. Bob Harts phase diagram to score the storm, as I am doing with all storms this year.

But this is travelling the path that I have been showing not only to you here on the pro site, but made a big deal of a couple of days ago on our free site. The storm is right over very warm water and there is no reason for it not to become a hurricane. The danger is rapid deepening, which the model does not see anymore, though the HWRF takes this to a sub 970 cyclone. My take is it's seeing the dry air to the northeast behind the front, and that front is already whipping a band of 30-knot winds through the Florida Straits. But as I pointed out in the column Thursday, this is nothing like the situations that caused the falling apart of other storms. Very different and there is where my beef lay with TPC.. a diagnostic argument for the overall playing field.

This is as complex as it gets. First of all, hybrid is causing sustained winds to 30 knots in the southern Gulf and it will be in the Texas coastal waters Monday while Ida, probably a category 2 or greater hurricane is entering the Gulf. The gradient though will be causing winds to gale force in the Florida Straits the next couple of days (gusts), but this is post frontal. Ida will be "protected" for another 36-48 hours by Cuba, from the dry air and she is in a favorable, though not perfect, outflow area. There is no mid- and high-level dry air to be found near the storm http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg so that aspect for it not deepening is a non factor now.

I realize I have been a bit of a dry air junkie this year and perhaps some of you are getting sick of me overstating the point, but that was the big factor across the entire globe this year as far as tropical cyclones. However, the bounceback in the ACE over the past month indicates we are probably ending the season with a return to normalcy in these high altitudes. While we were banging the El Nino drum back at the end of winter, the El Nino was not the cause for the demise of tropical activity, but is part of an overall hemispheric signal that led to the demise of it world wide. It is only now that the El Nino atmospheric signal has really shown up and you saw the result, the burst in the activity in the Pacific basin. At this time of the year, and we saw this to some extent in the late part of the '02 season, but it was most pronounced in the latter part of the '69 season, which was an El Nino season and a similar PDO analog I am using, there was late-season tropical activity. In fact, in 1969, Hurricane Marie developed north of Panama around Thanksgiving!

But Ida will probably come far enough north now to get caught in the trough that is causing the hybrid. The increasing shear, colder water, and low-level dry inflow makes it unlikely that this, no matter how strong it may be Monday, and again it may reach a 5 on my 1-10 scale which makes it a major (incorporation of pressure and wind, I am using this as the objective criteria) reaches the coast with hurricane winds. More likely is that it comes up on the east side of the hybrid, pulls it east into it and the whole system moves east along or near I-10 midweek.

Kate made landfall as a hurricane, but peaked in the southeast Gulf coming from the east in a major ridge off the Southeast coast that was more east-west than this ridge which is north-south and sandwiched between the trough to the west and the developing trough to the east in the Atlantic. While the intensity curve may be impressive as this ramps up, there are a lot of factors that argue against this hitting as a hurricane once to near 25 north, and as fast as it ramps up, it may spread out. Still a heck of a situation and something that I would have been more surprised about if it had NOT happened to end this season than it actually happening.


thanks for reading, ciao for now *****
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2491. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
they didnt update the forecast track...


Not posted...yet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
they didnt update the forecast track...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.