Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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1740. jpritch
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hi JP...long time no see....amazing what the possibles bring out....good to see ya.

Thanks, TS. I'm here fairly often, I just don't comment much. I do a fair amount of eyerolling, though. ;)
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1739. miajrz
our wmd has now gone sharply south:

Link

As an almost esd, I keep looking at everything you all post and wondering about Key West, but there the NWS says(older time, 235p but latest thinking per them):

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...IT IS BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE CERTAIN THAT A PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

(This is no way near the standard tourists out, rest make your bets scenario.) Hoping for best.


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Quoting StormW:


For those wondering

CI = Cirrus clouds
ACcas = AltoCumulus CAStellanus


Thank you. :)
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thanks storm and others, my computer is really struggling right now for whatever reason. I appreciate your thoughts
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Evening StormW,
what's your thinking on the possible "Perfect Storm II"? Do you think it could happen?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1734. 786
Is it correct to conclude that the cold cloud temperatures are not correlated to rain?
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It's a tension breaker. If they ban me, they ban me.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
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Quoting kingzfan104:
is it possible to be an extra tropical storm with major hurricane strength winds? and if so, what would the official forecast say and would the nhc still track it?


1) An extratropical cyclone forms. Extratropical cyclones have cold air at their core, and derive their energy from the release of potential energy when cold and warm air masses interact. These storms always have one or more fronts connected to them, and can occur over land or ocean. An extratropical cyclone can have winds as weak as a tropical depression, or as strong as a hurricane. Examples of extratropical cyclones include blizzards, Nor'easters, and the ordinary low pressure systems that give the continents at mid-latitudes much of their precipitation.


Link

Pretty interesting easy to understand (even for me, LOL) explanation of Extra, Subtropical, etc.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
or tropical withdrawals


Same same.. I guess people down south don't get cabin fever...

I am tired of the rain... this is just ridiculous :( We even had Hail, thats just insult to injury.

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I have heard this before where people have stated the precense of shear but yet due to the sun like temperatures(over exaggeration)in the carribean this could look very impressive over night.
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you will be banned for that Admin are in banneding mode when it comes too name storms

Quoting charlottefl:
Ok guys, it's time :)


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1724. 786
What is the infrared showing exactly? because Grand Cayman is under some of the coolest cloud temps according to it, yet not a drop of rain?? any info. would be appreciated so I can understand TIA
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BAM models
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1721. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think that was more cabin fever then anything else :)
or tropical withdrawals
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Who really cares on any given topic discussed here i see a lot of people with vary thin skin here. I am not ready to eat crow yet because the storm seems to be organizing rather quickly. I think as the song says you ain't seen nothing yet. Please notice I am not using the next line.
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1718. 786
WOW still no rain in Grand Cayman!!!
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Moisture from what's left of 96E is crossing CA and entraining into the inverted upper trof aloft over the SW Gulf. It was kind of uncanny for the last week to see the CI and ACcas in the flow, with strong shear preventing any deep convection. Its getting juicier now though...
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Quoting kingzfan104:
you still havent said how long youve had the site. your site is awful. you have way to many pictures and not enough links. you need to get someone to do your site for you


You need to go back where u came from. There's nothing wrong with Tampa's site. You have to be a TROLL.
so what's going on with Ida?
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Thanks for the update StormW. See you all in the AM.
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Quoting jpritch:


My ignore list is expanding almost as fast as Ida's core.


Hi JP...long time no see....amazing what the possibles bring out....good to see ya.
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1712. Skyepony (Mod)
Humans lead vs models so far on Ida..

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
OFCL DECREASING 24.8 71.7 -1 -1 -1
HWRF INCREASING 45.8 113.1 88.6 -1 -1
BAMD DECREASING 59.8 93.2 64.3 -1 -1
LBAR DECREASING 60.5 120.6 122.2 -1 -1
KHRM INCREASING 68.4 117.1 -1 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 68.6 137.7 221.7 -1 -1
MM5B INCREASING 104.7 161.3 181 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 105.7 177.9 -1 -1 -1
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Quoting kingzfan104:


gotta love the people who slave over their rarely visited website while not being a professional and then criticizing the professionals. im pretty sure the nhc knows just a little bit more then you do. tell me, how long have you had your site?


Leave it be.. you made your point.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Environment should become less conducive as it tracks northward. Outflow to its southwest is just about non existent.


Which turns Ida Extratropical, same effects, just more widespread..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1707. jpritch
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta love the Trolls.....LOL


My ignore list is expanding almost as fast as Ida's core.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No they're not... the shear is helping to keep Ida slightly weaker. One of the first things I was taught in general meteorology was that "no element of the atmosphere is negligible."


The shear is causing Ida to strengthen slower. The effects of wind shear are quite negligible at the moment, clouds are not blowing away from the center. An upper level low anticyclonic flow should also continue to build over this system over the next 48hrs.
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Quoting kingzfan104:


yup, and how long have you had your site? and you and i both know that its probably the same people over and over on your site.


It sure won't be you.....actually your wrong.....Look at the map at the bottom and the locations...BYE BYE!
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1703. beell
1674.
How do you know it's a hurricane from a mslp chart?
996-100mb on that one I think.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16265
Gotta love the Trolls.....LOL
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2nd Annual Portlight/WU 2009 Honor Walk
...info...scoop...411...news...updates...
Link
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1699. Skyepony (Mod)
CHIPS ens having some troubles. NHC is on the low end toward the end of the run but in there as a TS which most the other models support...

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Hey storm what is your prediction on future TS ida both track and intensity wise? Thank you!
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Quoting kingzfan104:


of course they do, but they dont go crazy like people did a few weeks back because 1 model says there could be a storm. people take models wayyyyyy to seriously here, especially intensity wise


I think that was more cabin fever then anything else :)
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Quoting kingzfan104:


difference between them and you. they run a government run site based on actual things they see and not models, you run a stupid site that 5 people look at and that is poorly organized and feel the need to critique people who dont base their forecast off of computers


I think i did call them the Professionals and i believe there has been over 64,000 hits on my site.....SO BYE BYE!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NGP is further WEst but, still a strong storm...


Hey Tampa,

Not sure how to read that.. How can you tell how strong by this map?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I agree..and disagree.
They look at models also I would assume.. you never disregard information. They also have a lot more information then we do.. and they are trained to use it.

We have some of the information.. not all of it.


of course they do, but they dont go crazy like people did a few weeks back because 1 model says there could be a storm. people take models wayyyyyy to seriously here, especially intensity wise
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1692. Ossqss
Quoting kingzfan104:


im just saying that they dont just follow models, because even though thats what everyone here does,they are wrong most of the time.


So you understand that most of which is forecast is based upon what is anticipated by virtue of .... and not really known? Forecast,,,, perhaps models in their heads, if you will? Opinion, is a model, right?
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It's good for everyone interested in meteorology to sometimes make their own forecasts based on nothing but straight forward observation. Learn about the elements and make you're own call.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
Quoting kingzfan104:


im just saying that they dont just follow models, because even though thats what everyone here does,they are wrong most of the time.


I agree..and disagree.
They look at models also I would assume.. you never disregard information. They also have a lot more information then we do.. and they are trained to use it.

We have some of the information.. not all of it.

They tell us its not unusual to be 200 miles out in 2-3 days. I basically disregard anything over 3 days... it just a guesstimate.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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