Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1790 - 1740

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

...hhhmmm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I shouldn't but last post as usual storm over last hour is rapping up imol. See ya tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
I agree I couldnt believe it took them so long to decide to get a doppler.Ive been living on Grand Cayman since 1980 seen a few good storms come through a LOT worse than this one looks like its going to be. Not a Met but watching weather is a little hobby of mine.


I'm surprised the US doesn't offer you one! Here, there are literally thousands of them!

I live in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. Channels 4, 5, 8, 11, 21, 27, 33 have one. The National Weather Service has one in Ft Worth, one near Waco, TX, 80mi to the south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Notice the striations to the north on the outflow? Indicative of a quickly strengthening cyclone. also, last frame shows very high cloud tops over the coc.
edit: striation more visible here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hurricane in 12-18hours....


Quoting stormsurge39:
It looks like Ida is clearly off the coast now! It also looks like southwesterly shear is going to keep it from strengthing rapidly! Now we know why the NHC has been so conservative. It looks like all the convection is getting blown NE. looks can be deceiving, but i do believe the shear is going to keep it in check. IMO


I agree, I think I will stick with the NHC guesstimate. I think TS might be a bit high with his.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
GFS shows the tightest pressure gradient over the MS/AL coast and represents the closest pairing of Ida and the low or surface wave from the BOC disturbance. On Tuesday.

Does that keep it away from MS/AL or thru it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree I couldnt believe it took them so long to decide to get a doppler.Ive been living on Grand Cayman since 1980 seen a few good storms come through a LOT worse than this one looks like its going to be. Not a Met but watching weather is a little hobby of mine.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Wow, amazing that any nation, especially those affected by hurricanes don't have doppler radar systems set up. Just keep a watchful eye on the sky and check with local news/radio. Truthfully, I do not believe this system will be too strong.

Your Island nation has seen much, much worse than this. Squally weather, intermittent periods of heavy rain and gale force wind gusts should be the worst of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That loop in the models is just too much. Wait for it, Wait for it...and then it turns around. By then we're already hunkered down!
Say this did come in the GOM as a Cat 1-2 and it did make the loop somewhere...would most all of Florida still get some rain, wind, waves and higher tides? Even if it never made landfall anywhere?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1782. beell
GFS shows the tightest pressure gradient over the MS/AL coast and represents the closest pairing of Ida and the low or surface wave from the BOC disturbance. On Tuesday.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16121
pressure dropping

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks like Ida is clearly off the coast now! It also looks like southwesterly shear is going to keep it from strengthing rapidly! Now we know why the NHC has been so conservative. It looks like all the convection is getting blown NE. looks can be deceiving, but i do believe the shear is going to keep it in check. IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Weather radar here in the caymans will not be operational till next year hopefully by the time the Hurricane season starts again have not seen or heard any news of it since it was announced that we were actually getting one. cold cloud tops over us but the heavier rain is still ssw of us 786 may get some squalls in a few hours. IMO

Wow, amazing that any nation, especially those affected by hurricanes don't have doppler radar systems set up. Just keep a watchful eye on the sky and check with local news/radio. Truthfully, I do not believe this system will be too strong.

Your Island nation has seen much, much worse than this. Squally weather, intermittent periods of heavy rain and gale force wind gusts should be the worst of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Model tracks have changed

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leftovers:
last i checked there is a cyclone just south of you


Last I just checked we should get 20 mph winds and some rain from it.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1775. miajrz
Reason to go sleep: Hands On Miami volunteer Metrozoo project, bright and shiny tomorrow morning. In this case, breezy (er, downright windy due to the pressure gradient) is good--keeps us all cool.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tampa's forecast...

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. East southeast wind between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Veterans Day: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 81.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting PcolaDan:


If this strengthens as you suggest, would this change the projected path much, if at all?


Yes a stronger storm will feel the trough more and bend to the right more....IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather radar here in the caymans will not be operational till next year hopefully by the time the Hurricane season starts again have not seen or heard any news of it since it was announced that we were actually getting one. cold cloud tops over us but the heavier rain is still ssw of us 786 may get some squalls in a few hours. IMO
Quoting Bordonaro:

What does your weather radars indicate, that's the first place to start. The coldest cloud tops may be near your region, but they might just be high/mid level cloudiness, with rain 50+ miles away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night all just remember the nhc did forecast a right of model track consensus. So they are right on that score so far too night. I believe just wrong on strength.Well we will all wake up tomorrow knowing the score. Pleasant dreams and remember don't let the bed bugs bite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leftovers:
make sure you florida west coasters are fueled up


For a little rain and wind?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Ossqss:



This , night all.



September 16, 2004-been there, done that, got the t-shirt for it! 4 letters-I V A N. Does everyone remember the wave heights that were recorded south of Pensacola?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night all just remember the nhc did forecast a right of model track consensus. So that are right on that score so far to night. I believe just wrong on strength.Well we will all wake up tomorrow knowing the score. Pleasant dreams and remember don't let the bed bugs bite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1765. 786
hmm it says winds from the NE, pressure 1012 and falling, humidity 78%, .03 inches of rain so far....not sure what I'm looking for..I do see lightening South of us, perhaps the rain has not reached us yet..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 850Realtor:
What is this "perfect storm" I keep seeing in the posts. I have an idea, but really, what would the "perfect storm" in the GOM be?

Where Ida, the BOC hybrid storm and energy from 96E combine to create a large scale weather maker, bringing gale force winds to a large portion of the Gulf States. Combine that with a ridge of High pressure moving off the E Coast, the pressure gradient will increase, causing high winds over the entire GOM.

The winds flow from an area of High pressure to the area of Low pressure. The greater the difference in pressure, the higher the winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hurricane in 12-18hours....



If this strengthens as you suggest, would this change the projected path much, if at all?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think Tampa's met Denis Phillips reads this blog. He mentioned the Perfect Storm on the newscast tonight. Oh yeah, he said this isn't one.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1761. xcool



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1760. Ossqss
Quoting 850Realtor:
What is this "perfect storm" I keep seeing in the posts. I have an idea, but really, what would the "perfect storm" in the GOM be?



This , night all.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Hurricane in 12-18hours....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 786:
What is the infrared showing exactly? because Grand Cayman is under some of the coolest cloud temps according to it, yet not a drop of rain?? any info. would be appreciated so I can understand TIA

What does your weather radars indicate, that's the first place to start. The coldest cloud tops may be near your region, but they might just be high/mid level cloudiness, with rain 50+ miles away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is this "perfect storm" I keep seeing in the posts. I have an idea, but really, what would the "perfect storm" in the GOM be?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm-I know we cant predict anything but just from the way Ida is currently moving dont you think SW Floria is going to take a hit?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane556:
When is the next recon mission?


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EST THU 06 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-162

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0211A IDA
C. 07/1115Z
D. 17.2N 84.7W
E. 07/1500Z TO 07/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A IDA
C. 08/0145Z
D. 18.7N 85.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 08/1800Z

Tomorrow at 11am
Thanks, Storm, for the explanation of the intialism/acronym. I should write longhand, but as I was trained as a met...sometimes i forget :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When is the next recon mission?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is the BOC AOI blowing the storms away from Ida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1751. docrod
Quoting StormW:


I haven't gone into it that deep yet, but it is possible. I'll be taking a look at the overall picture tomorrow.

Be nice if they sent up a G IV


looking forward to it --out of here - take care -r
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Damn I got banned for defending Al Bore or something like that. Britney stop me oh no I did it again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I haven't gone into it that deep yet, but it is possible. I'll be taking a look at the overall picture tomorrow.

Be nice if they sent up a G IV


Thanks :). Sorry if I asked when you were about to leave. Have a great night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wonder why kingzfan doesn't get banned, he is deliberately going after someone on the blog for no apparent reason

To me that is definitely worth a ban
its not a problem if you love it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1745. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Same same.. I guess people down south don't get cabin fever...

I am tired of the rain... this is just ridiculous :( We even had Hail, thats just insult to injury.

i think maybe its called trailer fever down there last cold night for a while warm up for us tomorrow thanks to the southerly flow near 60 tomorrow with night lows near 50 or 10 on sunday we may get to mid 60's or even a 70
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Good night Storm thanks for all you do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1740. jpritch
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hi JP...long time no see....amazing what the possibles bring out....good to see ya.

Thanks, TS. I'm here fairly often, I just don't comment much. I do a fair amount of eyerolling, though. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1790 - 1740

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.