Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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center is near 16.6 N and 83.8 W on the SE side of the blow up... shear is the lowest in that area but still 10-15kts.. its moving @ 5dg or just east of due N @ 7mph
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Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, the gradient is strong, it's windy here in Northeastern Florida. The pressure gradient between all three systems are causing wind gusts as high as 20 mph. People really shouldn't take this lightly as some are. This could turn out to be a very strange phenomenom that has not occured in the USA since 1991.

since march 1993?
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Unofficial Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Magicchaos' Western Pacific Public Advisory
Tropical Depression Twenty-Five-W (25W) Advisory Number 1
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

...Tropical Depression forms east of the Marianas...Expected to recurve...

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five-W was located near latitude 20.8 degrees north and longitude 155.7 degrees east. This is about 720 miles west of Wake Island.

Twenty-Five-W is moving toward the northwest at 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A recurvature is expected with Twenty-Five-W turning north then northeast through Saturday night and expected to continue northeast through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Brief strengthening is expected for the next 24 hours and Twenty-Five-W could be a tropical storm by Saturday Night.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 MB...29.77 inches.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.8N 155.7E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST ARE FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGY AGENCY. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.

NOTE: This is not a real product. I'm just doing this for fun and to make a Western Pacific public advisory easy to understand by using the NHC's format.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

it could be very broad .. look at my previous post to see what I expect.
It feels like some folks on here make it sound worse than a cat5 hurricane! Thats why i wanted to now what to expect.
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Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, the gradient is strong, it's windy here in Northeastern Florida. The pressure gradient between all three systems are causing wind gusts as high as 20 mph. People really shouldn't take this lightly as some are. This could turn out to be a very strange phenomenom that has not occured in the USA since 1991.

could be very strange. if you look at the GFS you will see that the pressure gradient becomes very tight over the northern gomex as the storm transitions to extrop
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1834. beell
Quoting SouthALWX:

or both. and the models already know it to some degree .. last run I saw showed strongest wind field expanding on the NW side in a SW to NE direction at the end of the run .. eg tending to extrop


Sounds good. One or both of us could be wrong, but sometimes you have to read between the lines of model output for some insight.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16257
Quoting stormsurge39:
Are those gusts inland?

Yes, mainly within 50 miles of the coast. Need to keep an eye on this evolving event.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Are those gusts inland?

Mostly coastal .. would decrease further from the coast. It's all hypothetical at this point but it's my best guess.
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Honestly, the gradient is strong, it's windy here in Northeastern Florida. The pressure gradient between all three systems are causing wind gusts as high as 20 mph. People really shouldn't take this lightly as some are. This could turn out to be a very strange phenomenom that has not occured in the USA since 1991.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Will somebody please tell me what land area a extratropical storm will cover in this instance, and what it will do? thank you

it could be very broad .. look at my previous post to see what I expect.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

the gradient is what I've been talking about all day. imo, that will be the headliner. minor coastal flooding but over a very large area and some beach erosion plus, again, 45-50 mph gusts from louisiana to florida
Are those gusts inland?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I think too many people are concentrating too much on IDA and her strenght and not what the HYBIRD storm will look like when combined with the 3 way combo of IDA, XtraTropical Low in the BOC, and the Cold front......those 3 combined will make a HYBRID beast in my opinion.....also the high pressure gradient...this is just my opinion.

the gradient is what I've been talking about all day. imo, that will be the headliner. minor coastal flooding but over a very large area and some beach erosion plus, again, 45-50 mph gusts from louisiana to florida
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Quoting SouthALWX:

you can also get an estimate of windspeed via radar.

I knew I forgot something. Cayman Islands are a UK territory, I am real surprised they haven't allocated resources for them for their safety, and the safety of the tens of thousands of tourist that visit during Hurricane season each year.
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Ughh, not a big deal?? Some of you aren't seeing the big picture on what could evolve signifigantly out of all of this.. Just look at the IR image, loop it, and you'll see the collision already starting cloud wise.
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Will somebody please tell me what land area a extratropical storm will cover in this instance, and what it will do? thank you
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Quoting stormsurge39:
LOL
realy? you will soon see it
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1821. beell
Also reason there is a NOT cause the midlevel circulation of IDA may get torn into the frontal passage in the NE GOM and thru florida..while the LLC (with dry air and low clouds) will get steered by the building ridge to the S or even SW later that week (Thurs-Friday) .. but its all guessing games... Short term out to 72 hours is all we need to look @. Landfall if any is 4-5 days if at all.

Another option/guess would be for the surface low to simply get swept away to the E along with everything else.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16257
Quoting TampaSpin:
I think too many people are concentrating too much on IDA and her strenght and not what the HYBIRD storm will look like when combined with the 3 way combo of IDA, XtraTropical Low in the BOC, and the Cold front......those 3 combined will make a HYBRID beast in my opinion.....also the high pressure gradient...this is just my opinion.


Exactly, some think Ida will be sheared and nothing will be left when you really have Ida becoming extratropical emerging with the low in the BOC, pus moisture from 96E. This creates "Perfect Storm II". I am VERY surprised that Accuweather has not mentioned this likely scenario.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
eye forming at 16.8 83-8
LOL
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Quoting IKE:
Reading the latest discussion on Ida....

"ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4."
.....


System will be ripped to shreds in that.


Extratropical, Ida will become a large extratropical low, same effects, just more widespread. I doubt right now that Ida will be ripped to shreads. Models show transition, kind of like Noel in 2007, went from Hurricane to Extratropical Storm, but still had Hurricane force winds. So we'll see what happens. Watching for a Perfect Storm to form out of all this mess, even Weather456 and StormW believe this is possible.
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I think it would be a great asset to everybody not just us here in the caymans but for anyone tracking a system in the NW carib.
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I think too many people are concentrating too much on IDA and her strenght and not what the HYBIRD storm will look like when combined with the 3 way combo of IDA, XtraTropical Low in the BOC, and the Cold front......those 3 combined will make a HYBRID beast in my opinion.....also the high pressure gradient...this is just my opinion.
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Quoting beell:


Or be extra-tropical and nobody told the models!

or both. and the models already know it to some degree .. last run I saw showed strongest wind field expanding on the NW side in a SW to NE direction at the end of the run .. eg tending to extrop
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eye forming at 16.8 83-8
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1813. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yep, even a strong storm would be killed... Ida should only be a TS and will be blown to bits.


I agree.

I noticed the NHC lowered the highest winds on the new advisory from 50 knots to 45 knots.

I don't think this is going to be a big issue. Rain and some wind and that's about it for me...at the worst.

Although, the latest GFS is now in-line with the ECMWF, showing Ida along the northern gulf coast in just 84 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
going to tampa? going to tampa? how many days out are you looking.. 5? anything past 3 days isnt worth posting. Short term forecasts are key.. only go out to 5 days if there is 90% agreement on models...and models right now are all over the place and changing. Lets say by Monday morning...it will be between Cancun and the western tip of Cuba...maybe already in the extreme southern GOM... We have another 24-36hours @ least before we can start really thinking if this will make a U.S. landfall or not.

Also reason there is a NOT cause the midlevel circulation of IDA may get torn into the frontal passage in the NE GOM and thru florida..while the LLC (with dry air and low clouds) will get steered by the building ridge to the S or even SW later that week (Thurs-Friday) .. but its all guessing games... Short term out to 72 hours is all we need to look @. Landfall if any is 4-5 days if at all.
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Quoting IKE:
Reading the latest discussion on Ida....

"ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4."
.....


System will be ripped to shreds in that.
your right, If that shear holds nobody has anything to worry about! I got caught up in hurricane mania with all these models. I think NHC is on target for intensity. IMO
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Your nation will find that is a very important tool in keeping track of incoming inclement weather. I am sure your local meteorologists due a great job with the tools they have available to them. They have access to the National Hurricane Center, in Miami, FL. Plus all the weather satellites from the US and UK to keep them informed. Radar does a great job of pinpointing where the rain is and how heavy it will be, how much rain falls over a certain locale, even to help estimate cloud tops and some features even have 3-D graphics.

you can also get an estimate of windspeed via radar.
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1809. beell
Quoting IKE:
Reading the latest discussion on Ida....

"ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4."
.....


System will be ripped to shreds in that.


Or be extra-tropical and nobody told the models!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16257
Quoting IKE:
Reading the latest discussion on Ida....

"ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4."
.....


System will be ripped to shreds in that.


That says day 4...by day 4 i may not disagree with that.....but within the next day or so...conditions will not reflect that kind of shear....the shear will not be ideal but not to strong for IDA to strengthen.
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
lol Island time ... takes a while to get anything done here. I think the Radar we are getting is being provided by the UK Met office.

Your nation will find that is a very important tool in keeping track of incoming inclement weather. I am sure your local meteorologists due a great job with the tools they have available to them. They have access to the National Hurricane Center, in Miami, FL. Plus all the weather satellites from the US and UK to keep them informed. Radar does a great job of pinpointing where the rain is and how heavy it will be, how much rain falls over a certain locale, even to help estimate cloud tops and some features even have 3-D graphics.
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Quoting IKE:
Reading the latest discussion on Ida....

"ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4."
.....


System will be ripped to shreds in that.


Yep, even a strong storm would be killed... Ida should only be a TS and will be blown to bits.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Last update.. tracks are changing...they are all starting to double back instead of going to Tampa.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


We turned on our deflector shield. :)
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...hhhmmm...
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1803. IKE
Reading the latest discussion on Ida....

"ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4."
.....


System will be ripped to shreds in that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Last update for the night.. tracks are changing...they are all starting to double back instead of going to Tampa.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

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TCFA in the South Indian Ocean:

WTXS21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.2S 74.4E TO 6.4S 72.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
062330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.7S
74.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2S
74.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7S 74.2E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ABOUT A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS DEPICTED IN A 062039Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS A 061327Z QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED EXHAUST. NEVERTHELESS, THE
LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EXTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.//
NNNN



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The shear in the gulf is even worse.
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Too much SW Shear to develope rapidly!
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The heavy convection of Ida doesnt seem to be wrapping around the LLC. It all seems to be blowing to the NE. IMO
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1796. beell
Quoting stormsurge39:
Does that keep it away from MS/AL or thru it?


Well, we're just guessing here. 3-4 days out.

The BOC low goes ashore on the central gulf coast. Ida goes...well-she is supposed to move east or even SE-away from the high pressure ridge that is partly responsible for the tight pressure gradient and higher winds.

I think I'll sleep on it.
Good night!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16257
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
DOES ANYONE SEE IDA MOVING A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST?

watch the caps, and no I think it's an illusion induced by modest SW shear.
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lol Island time ... takes a while to get anything done here. I think the Radar we are getting is being provided by the UK Met office.
Quoting Bordonaro:


I'm surprised the US doesn't offer you one! Here, there are literally thousands of them!

I live in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. Channels 4, 5, 8, 11, 21, 27, 33 have one. The National Weather Service has one in Ft Worth, one near Waco, TX, 80mi to the south.
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Quoting Orcasystems:



I agree, I think I will stick with the NHC guesstimate. I think TS might be a bit high with his.


I maybe....just a guess.....
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DOES ANYONE SEE IDA MOVING A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST?
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Quoting SouthALWX:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Notice the striations to the north on the outflow? Indicative of a quickly strengthening cyclone. also, last frame shows very high cloud tops over the coc.
edit: striation more visible here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html


Noticed that too good observation.
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...hhhmmm...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.