Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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1890. xcool
looking to me she move fast ??
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Quoting SouthALWX:

there's been speculation all day about that .. honestly? we don't know .. could intensify to some degree or it could just rip poor ida to pieces and spread rain inland ... again we really dont know

does that thing in the gulf have any circulation, or a chance to become a sub tropical or tropical system? we are currently under a flood watch, is that because of the action in the gulf? i am in SE Louisiana. i am sorry i have alot of questions, but that's why i come here, to learn!
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Reed i appreciate everyone on here that answers my questions including you,there is alot passion in your posts sometimes that can come across as hyper to some people, although i feel like your trying to help people. Keep up the good job.


Thanks man, that's exactly what I'm trying to do. We all don't want to hear it, but we all can't hear that nothing will happen. All the elements are there, even some fo the experts on here say it's possible. Not telling anybody to evacuate, just warning them of the possible situation. Basically people just need to watch what happens first before anything else, best idea right now.
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm not hypecasting, just going by the obs. If you think I'm hypecasting, then you might as well call Weather456 a hypecaster because he agrees that something major could happen in the GOM. We have 96E moving north, making landfall in Mexico now. You have Ida which is strengthening despite the conditions. then to the leeft you have a non-tropical area of low pressure (broad). All of these factors are moving northward and could evolve into one huge hybrid low.
Reed i appreciate everyone on here that answers my questions including you,there is alot passion in your posts sometimes that can come across as hyper to some people, although i feel like your trying to help people. Keep up the good job.
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Quoting sarahjola:

you are right. that was just a big wobble, but a big wobble like that will change the direction a little bit for sure. man, i just looked at the eastern united states sat. and it looks kinda spooky. is that a front coming in? what effects will that front or whatever it is that's pushing to the southeast have on us on the gulf coast? what if all these weather systems meet up? the one in the boc, and the front coming through and Ida, what if they meet up, what happens then? i am just wondering. i know that all that happening is a very unlikely thing, but just want to know if anyone on here will have a what if conversation

there's been speculation all day about that .. honestly? we don't know .. could intensify to some degree or it could just rip poor ida to pieces and spread rain inland ... again we really dont know
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Quoting xcool:
Link


TampaSpin you can seeing go back n now

you are right. that was just a big wobble, but a big wobble like that will change the direction a little bit for sure. man, i just looked at the eastern united states sat. and it looks kinda spooky. is that a front coming in? what effects will that front or whatever it is that's pushing to the southeast have on us on the gulf coast? what if all these weather systems meet up? the one in the boc, and the front coming through and Ida, what if they meet up, what happens then? i am just wondering. i know that all that happening is a very unlikely thing, but just want to know if anyone on here will have a what if conversation
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1884. xcool



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ScottSvb whats your gut tell you on this when you put it all together and played out...i respect you opinion a great deal.
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I'm not hypecasting, just going by the obs. If you think I'm hypecasting, then you might as well call Weather456 a hypecaster because he agrees that something major could happen in the GOM. We have 96E moving north, making landfall in Mexico now. You have Ida which is strengthening despite the conditions. then to the leeft you have a non-tropical area of low pressure (broad). All of these factors are moving northward and could evolve into one huge hybrid low.
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1881. xcool
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Quoting scottsvb:


When they post the direction... it was from that positon from the previous position. Doesnt mean thats the direction it will go until the next advisory... its always the previous 6hrs.
ok thanks, Do you think the heavy convection is moving off to the NE away from the COC?
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Quoting scottsvb:



Correct...too many factors.. also the GFDL starts this out 6hrs from now..or really 1 hour from now near 84.7W and its about 83.8W... models dont have a grasp yet..also dont have 1 on strength really. GFS probably has the best handle..also the HRWF in direction.. think the GFS is kinda too slow the first 36hrs.

Now what this needs to develop more is ...sucking in the midlevel moisture to its north.. that is not 100% associated with IDA.. its enhanced midlevel mositure that was pulled into IDA when she was a hurricane before landfall in Nicaragua... she needs to deepen more under 998mbs to get that mositure wraped into her... right now she has a tight small LLC.. any shear over 25kts will blow off the convection constantly from her center and keep her around 1005mbs.. so she needs to deepen some..get the moisture into her to expand more in the T-Storm area to get herself going.

I agree. I believe she's on her way, judging by the improved outflow to the south. I believe she's a TS now, and we'll see if this core can deepen and become more symmetric. I would like to see what the models do after some more recon input, but we'll have to wait for that.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting stormsurge39:
NHC has 16.2N 84.0W That puts most of the convection to the NE. Unless another LLC has formed to the NE? Its hard to tell what direction its going. Although at 10pm the NHC says its going N.


When they post the direction... it was from that positon from the previous position. Doesnt mean thats the direction it will go until the next advisory... its always the previous 6hrs.
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another thing I'd like to point out .. when you have lopsided storms, they tend to wobble to the greatest mass due to conservation of angular momentum. so an eastward jog should be expected in the very near term, though may ultimately have nil effect on the track .. looks like it's trying to consolidate into one CDO to me with the center rotating towards it as the convection to the NE pulls in around it. my center fix: 83.9W 17.1 north
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:

It seems like it now. and 86W is still farther west than I think it will go, but not out of the question. But who knows, maybe this ridge will build in slightly and end this northward motion. There's so many factors here.



Correct...too many factors.. also the GFDL starts this out 6hrs from now..or really 1 hour from now near 84.7W and its about 83.8W... models dont have a grasp yet..also dont have 1 on strength really. GFS probably has the best handle..also the HRWF in direction.. think the GFS is kinda too slow the first 36hrs.

Now what this needs to develop more is ...sucking in the midlevel moisture to its north.. that is not 100% associated with IDA.. its enhanced midlevel mositure that was pulled into IDA when she was a hurricane before landfall in Nicaragua... she needs to deepen more under 998mbs to get that mositure wraped into her... right now she has a tight small LLC.. any shear over 25kts will blow off the convection constantly from her center and keep her around 1005mbs.. so she needs to deepen some..get the moisture into her to expand more in the T-Storm area to get herself going.
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Cool page here
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
NHC has 16.2N 84.0W That puts most of the convection to the NE. Unless another LLC has formed to the NE? Its hard to tell what direction its going. Although at 10pm the NHC says its going N.
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Quoting scottsvb:
0z GFDL is much weaker with this going into the GOM and then picking up hurricane force gusts due to the pressure gradient in the NE GOM from the ridge building in over the SE... I think its too early to judge all this.. infact I think the near term has it more east...GFDL takes this to almost 90W... I dont see it getting past 86W right now.

It seems like it now. and 86W is still farther west than I think it will go, but not out of the question. But who knows, maybe this ridge will build in slightly and end this northward motion. There's so many factors here.
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1871. xcool
Link


TampaSpin you can seeing go back n now
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little closer pic......ya i think it is moving East some.
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0z GFDL is much weaker with this going into the GOM and then picking up hurricane force gusts due to the pressure gradient in the NE GOM from the ridge building in over the SE... I think its too early to judge all this.. infact I think the near term has it more east...GFDL takes this to almost 90W... I dont see it getting past 86W right now.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:

Possibly. One interesting thing I noticed from that loop, is that it appears Ida may be developing weak outflow to the south. This will be helpful for intensification in this shear.

lol i just said that like twice XD but yeah I agree
edit: Id like to see one more frame or two but I really think WV is showing the core with that speck of really cold clouds on the NE ... dare I say .. Eyewall.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Shear maps are only reliable if the satellite loops agree

Looking at the satellite loops; Ida is absolutely not under 20-30 knots of shear


It appears recently this is the case. I completely agree with you. Now I don't want wishcast or any of that rubbish, but if it goes farther east than forecast and stronger at the same time, it will be interesting to see what the long term effects are.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Eating pork,protects the skin from winds in a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

yes but if you look closely at satellite you'll see that the area very near Ida has less shear .. generally I look at WV to discern UL wind direction .. and up and until an hour ago it had been steady SW to NE .. last few frames show outflow increasing in the southern sections

lol you read my mind :~)
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
lol reedzone's posts always show hidden for weeks... people always think he is hypecasting?
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Quoting SouthALWX:
could be wrong but ..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
last frame revealing the inner core?

Possibly. One interesting thing I noticed from that loop, is that it appears Ida may be developing weak outflow to the south. This will be helpful for intensification in this shear.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting stormsurge39:
How is Ida going to catch BOC AOI to make perfect storm?


Look closely...
Photobucket
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Definitely under 20-30 knots of shear

yes but if you look closely at satellite you'll see that the area very near Ida has less shear .. generally I look at WV to discern UL wind direction .. and up and until an hour ago it had been steady SW to NE .. last few frames show outflow increasing in the southern sections
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Definitely under 20-30 knots of shear


Shear maps are only reliable if the satellite loops agree

Looking at the satellite loops; Ida is absolutely not under 20-30 knots of shear
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Quoting pcbdragon:
so the low that was in the gulf of alaska the other that is driving this front would be considered a superstorm?


In my opinion.. Others have different opinions
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Definitely under 20-30 knots of shear
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, Isnt that E of N look an illusion?

hard to tell and regardless it's only a frame or two that looks that way to me and could easily be a wobble. I maintain due north for the time being.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
TS is it me or is Ida moving slightly East of Due North and not NNW?


Yep i believe so...not all that unexpectd as some models show Ida doing just that.



Look at the GFDL in green.....its right on.....
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Quoting reedzone:


No, the Halloween (Perfect Storm) of 1991. The 1993 storm was a Superstorm.

Perfect Storm - Usually named such a name when you have a nontropical system and a tropical system collide.

Superstorm - Usually named a very large, powerful storm under 980 mlb (IN MY OPINION).

I still call the 2007 Nor'easter in April a Superstorm because pressure went down to 969 mlb., just 9 milibars up from the 960 mlb Superstorm of the Cetury in 1993.
How is Ida going to catch BOC AOI to make perfect storm?
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Quoting SouthALWX:

not exactly a shield, just sort of "fighting back" if you will. convergence at the surface tends to cause divergence aloft... generally it's negligible in tropical storms and more noticeable in major hurricanes but given that the SW shear is light, it may be just enough to help Ida close off a tight inner core
Thanks, Isnt that E of N look an illusion?
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Quoting reedzone:


No, the Halloween (Perfect Storm) of 1991. The 1993 storm was a Superstorm.

Perfect Storm - Usually named such a name when you have a nontropical system and a tropical system collide.

Superstorm - Usually named a very large, powerful storm under 980 mlb (IN MY OPINION).

I still call the 2007 Nor'easter in April a Superstorm because pressure went down to 969 mlb., just 9 milibars up from the 960 mlb Superstorm of the Cetury in 1993.
so the low that was in the gulf of alaska the other that is driving this front would be considered a superstorm?
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could be wrong but ..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
last frame revealing the inner core?
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1851. xcool
Derek Ortt's Podcast for Ida

http://www.nwhhc.com/PNJ/pnj_1106.mp3
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Quoting stormsurge39:
so its putting a shield over itself?

not exactly a shield, just sort of "fighting back" if you will. convergence at the surface tends to cause divergence aloft... generally it's negligible in tropical storms and more noticeable in major hurricanes but given that the SW shear is light, it may be just enough to help Ida close off a tight inner core..
edit: also notice the outflow ramping up on the southern side of Ida ... could be an interesting 6 hours from here on
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It definitely looks like Ida is moving north. Maybe slightly east of north. Not NNW. Now it may be the shear giving that appearance and it will be hard to tell until visible comes out, but it surely looks around 005 degrees to me.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting pcbdragon:

since march 1993?


No, the Halloween (Perfect Storm) of 1991. The 1993 storm was a Superstorm.

Perfect Storm - Usually named such a name when you have a nontropical system and a tropical system collide.

Superstorm - Usually named a very large, powerful storm under 980 mlb (IN MY OPINION).

I still call the 2007 Nor'easter in April a Superstorm because pressure went down to 969 mlb., just 9 milibars up from the 960 mlb Superstorm of the Cetury in 1993.
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TS is it me or is Ida moving slightly East of Due North and not NNW?
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Quoting SouthALWX:
another thing pointing to a strengthening storm: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
the cloud elements that had been moving NE towards Ida are starting to curve eastward, indicating that Ida's lowlevel circulation is now further reaching than before and my finally be able to shut off some of that shear as it attempts to pump up an upper ridge over itself.
so its putting a shield over itself?
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Effects form the potential "Perfect Storm"

- high wind and waves
- tornadoes
- heavy rains
- beach erosion
- gale warnings

Now this is potential, it does have a slight chance of not evolving and Ida getting sheared as some say it will, but looking at the models, the satellite that shows all three systems drawing nearer to eachother, it's a good possibility. Somehow, even though Tacoman/Stormtop predicted this as a hypecast, he could be right, just different location and that Ida will be the main force of this large Hybrid low.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Does it look very healthy around the LLC right now?
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Bottom line is any storm is dangerous. Depends on your vantage point. Fay for example killed 6 or 7 people in FL and it was only a tropical storm. Do some people get a little to excited about it? Maybe, but I would rather them be a little to excited than show no concern.
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1842. unf97
Post #1816

TampaSpin, you are absolutely correct about what you stated. It will really be intersting seeing all of this come together in the GOM. So much energy to poyentailly create quite a potent hybrid system.
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another thing pointing to a strengthening storm: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
the cloud elements that had been moving NE towards Ida are starting to curve eastward, indicating that Ida's lowlevel circulation is now further reaching than before and my finally be able to shut off some of that shear as it attempts to pump up an upper ridge over itself.
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center is near 16.6 N and 83.8 W on the SE side of the blow up... shear is the lowest in that area but still 10-15kts.. its moving @ 5dg or just east of due N @ 7mph
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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