Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hunkerdown:
your response is correct as to steering influence based on strength (as you said) but this is not completely relative to the "turning" in relation to the speed of the storm, which is what was asked

Well most of the time a storm slows before a directional change. I felt that the speed of the storm and turning don't really relate because the speed is determined by the steering currents anyway.
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1939. Seastep
Found it.... and again, sorry about that. Just don't know you guys and it's fri late and I was verifying and missed it.

Again, apologies.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I believe its the building in of the ridge

thanks
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1937. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting sarahjola:

the reason i ask is because alot of the models have kind of sharp turns at the end of them? what are the models seeing that would make them react that way. is it the front coming down that makes the models think its gonna take a sharp turn? why the turn at the end of the models?
I believe its the building in of the ridge...of course its all about timing so as been said, dont look too much inot the 5th day on at this point. Focus on the short term, which will ultimately determine longer term.
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1935. Seastep
My apologies to southdade and weathercane. Too late. g'nite.

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Quoting Seastep:


I'd rather know where you got the TS info from.

It said National Hurricane Center in the bulletin header...
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Link



here ya go seastep.
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Quoting Seastep:


Can you link me to that please. TIA



Here.

Link
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Quoting hunkerdown:
not usually...especially if you are talking about sharp/abrupt turns

the reason i ask is because alot of the models have kind of sharp turns at the end of them? what are the models seeing that would make them react that way. is it the front coming down that makes the models think its gonna take a sharp turn? why the turn at the end of the models?
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:

To my knowledge the more important factor to turning a storm is how strong it is. A stronger (deeper) storm is more likely to get picked up by a trough or "turned", while a weaker, more low level system has a greater chance of getting bypassed or by the trough. I hope this helps.
your response is correct as to steering influence based on strength (as you said) but this is not completely relative to the "turning" in relation to the speed of the storm, which is what was asked
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1929. Seastep
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Anyone interested in tropical weather links for tracking Ida or the tropics in general are welcome to visit my site.


I'd rather know where you got the TS info from.
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Anyone interested in tropical weather links for tracking Ida or the tropics in general are welcome to visit my site.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:

To my knowledge the more important factor to turning a storm is how strong it is. A stronger (deeper) storm is more likely to get picked up by a trough or "turned", while a weaker, more low level system has a greater chance of getting bypassed or by the trough. I hope this helps.

thanks it does
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Quoting sarahjola:
but is a storm that is moving fast easier to turn than a slow moving storm?
not usually...especially if you are talking about sharp/abrupt turns
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1925. xcool
me to
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1924. ackee
Ida was TS at 10pm NHC now just calling IDA strenghting fast expect this reach hurricane strenght
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Quoting sarahjola:
but is a storm that is moving fast easier to turn than a slow moving storm?

To my knowledge the more important factor to turning a storm is how strong it is. A stronger (deeper) storm is more likely to get picked up by a trough or "turned", while a weaker, more low level system has a greater chance of getting bypassed or by the trough. I hope this helps.
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1922. Seastep
Quoting WeatherCaneFF1331:


000
WTNT61 KNHC 070629
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
130 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

RECENTLY RECEIVED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IDA
HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

FORECASTER BRENNAN



Can you link me to that please. TIA
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Quoting xcool:



i see a spin
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1920. xcool
use weathertap Enhanced Infrared Satellite .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting SouthDadeFish:

Well the forward speed of the storm is factored into the winds. And a slower moving storm can be more damaging due to longer exposure of winds and greater rainfall. Also the steering dictates how fast a storm moves, not the other way around.
but is a storm that is moving fast easier to turn than a slow moving storm?
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I find it very interesting that they upgraded Ida now and did not wait until four AM. Possibly a quicker rate of intensification than expected?


000
WTNT61 KNHC 070629
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
130 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

RECENTLY RECEIVED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IDA
HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

FORECASTER BRENNAN

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1917. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
This loop very clearly shows a strengthening storm. Notice how the cloud tops are cooling over a larger area, which is also near the center. It appears we have a developing CDO, which is most likely why the NHC upgraded it now. Also notice the outflow continuing to improve in the southern half of the circulation. At this rate, we may have a strong TS/hurricane tomorrow night. But it would be very difficult for Ida to continue to intensify at this rate with this shear around. She's a fighter, thats for sure.
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1915. xcool
Enhanced Infrared Satellite 6.31 utc time
nice she blow up
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1914. xcool
07/0545 UTC 16.7N 83.6W T2.5/2.5 IDA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting sarahjola:
would the speed have anything to do with the strength of the storm, and is it easier to steer a fast or slow moving storm?

Well the forward speed of the storm is factored into the winds. And a slower moving storm can be more damaging due to longer exposure of winds and greater rainfall. Also the steering dictates how fast a storm moves, not the other way around.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
She looks like, going by tropical forecast points, that shes 12 hours faster than forecasted? IMO

wow 12 hrs ahead of schedule? does the speed mean its gonna take a more easterly track?
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I find it very interesting that they upgraded Ida now and did not wait until four AM. Possibly a quicker rate of intensification than expected?
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would the speed have anything to do with the strength of the storm, and is it easier to steer a fast or slow moving storm?
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Quoting sarahjola:
how fast would you all say she is going?
She looks like, going by tropical forecast points, that shes 12 hours faster than forecasted? IMO
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1908. xcool
8
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1907. xcool
wow she back ohh boyz
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
how fast would you all say she is going?
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 070629
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
130 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

RECENTLY RECEIVED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IDA
HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

FORECASTER BRENNAN
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awesome link hurricaneking
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1903. xcool
i`m use Enhanced Infrared Satellite 6.15 utc time

i seeing a n . ???
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Honestly the more I look at Ida the more I believe her COC is in that tight ball of convection moving nne/ne and that she is a ts.

Link

You can even see outflow beginning to the southeast of the blow up.
It looks like she did wobble NNE, but it looks like she is going N again. If that is where the LLC is now she is flyin!
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1901. xcool
she move n now . ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1900. xcool
oh yea now she fire uppp
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
sorry was afk...

My thoughts are that this will get better organized.. shear is a difficult issue cause if this gets the midlevel back into her..then she will become a hurricane in 2 days or so...and that shear wont be that big of a problem cause she will be moving in tandam with the shear. Now if that shear increases over 20kts..then she will struggle around 999mb-1002mbs but still a moderate T.S. This is expected to happen, but models on the shearing are all over the place.
All I can say is that she will be from a 50mph T.S. in 2 days in the Yucitan channel to as high as a 85mph hurricane. This why I always preach peeps to watch short term forecasts and dont worry about 5 days out or more on landfalls.
Right now I wish we had 1 thing... RADAR!! lol
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Ida looks like she is hallin a..
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Honestly the more I look at Ida the more I believe her COC is in that tight ball of convection moving nne/ne and that she is a ts.

Link

You can even see outflow beginning to the southeast of the blow up.
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Quoting reedzone:


Not really sure, it's hard to find one at night, tomorrow in the daytime visible, should be easier.
Thanks
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Reed, Im trying to figure out where the LLC is at on the Sat. Is it at about 17N and 84w , Where that strong covection is at? I didnt know the NHC is 6 hours behind on cordinates


Not really sure, it's hard to find one at night, tomorrow in the daytime visible, should be easier.
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Quoting reedzone:


Thanks man, that's exactly what I'm trying to do. We all don't want to hear it, but we all can't hear that nothing will happen. All the elements are there, even some fo the experts on here say it's possible. Not telling anybody to evacuate, just warning them of the possible situation. Basically people just need to watch what happens first before anything else, best idea right now.
Reed, Im trying to figure out where the LLC is at on the Sat. Is it at about 17N and 84w , Where that strong covection is at? I didnt know the NHC is 6 hours behind on cordinates
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Vorticity map of the 1991 Perfect Storm

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If Ida were to get stronger than expected, maybe cat 1 hurricane or so by tomorrow (just theoretically) how would that affect the path? Would it make it more likely to go more easterly?
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Quoting sarahjola:

does that thing in the gulf have any circulation, or a chance to become a sub tropical or tropical system? we are currently under a flood watch, is that because of the action in the gulf? i am in SE Louisiana. i am sorry i have alot of questions, but that's why i come here, to learn!

I haven't paid it much attention, last I heard it had potential to bring flooding rains to that area
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1890. xcool
looking to me she move fast ??
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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