Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
1988. unf97
Good morning!

I just wanted to geta very quick peek at Ida. Yes, an impressive CDO has developed and there are some nice banding features, especially on the right front quadrant of the cyclone. Looks like the re-intensification phase has commenced and Ida has about a 24-36 hour window of opportunity for IDA to possibly regain hurricane status before conditions grow more hostile as she approaches entrance to the GOM.

I'll check back later. Going back to sleep.
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1987. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 07NOV)
===========================================
At 15:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 21.0N 156.0E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 25 knots with gust of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


No she's not. At 1:30am an update came out saying she was a 40mph ts. Now the new advisory says she's 45mph.

Oh... was about to say did the hurricane center fall asleep on us, well kudos to them even at this juncture of the nite it must be a madhouse there.
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Link

Hopefully Ida looks worse than she is.
back to sleepyland...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hold up I went to work and came back and Ida is still a tropical depression


No she's not. At 1:30am an update came out saying she was a 40mph ts. Now the new advisory says she's 45mph.
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By the looks of dat baby we might have a hurricane pretty soon.
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Loop
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Hi woke up and checked Ida.
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Hold up I went to work and came back and Ida is still a tropical depression
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looking at the recent loops it does look like banding is increasing in the SE quadrant. Also the COC getting more symmetrical. Interesting....
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I'm gonna squeeze one eye shut for a while......nite nite.
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click graphic for a 5 day loop......
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Quoting sarahjola:
I'm going to bed the suspense is killing me. lol! good night all and have a safe one.
happy hurricane hunting

Reason no one is talking is because they're sleeping! It's 3 in the morning in US.
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I'm going to bed the suspense is killing me. lol! good night all and have a safe one.
happy hurricane hunting
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no one is posting. what are you all looking at? has something changed?
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this storm looks really good! its getting me a bit nervous. sorry i am asking so many questions. it makes me feel a little better to know and understand what i am looking at so i can decide if i have something to worry about.
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1972. GBguy88
Any bets on when Ida will start batting her eyelashes? I think people might be underestimating this one, at least in the near-term.
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how fast is it moving now? is it moving faster now? does it look to be getting stronger? at the rate its going now, when do you all think that it will be in the gulf? one person said earlier that it looked as though it was 8-12 hrs ahead of time. does it still seem that way, and if so then when will it enter the gulf?
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Good morning all
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I posted about midnite that we would have a hurricane again in 12-18hrs....and was fairly rediculed for that statement.......we will see between 12-6pm today if i am correct.


I said the same late yesterday so we will see. Certainly the TCHP is more than would be needed for that and shear does not seem to be exacting much of a toll on the storm.
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One last thing. Looking from the latest GHCC imagery, we may have a convective band building in the SE quadrant, which would be a critical step in the strengthening of Ida.
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I posted about midnite that we would have a hurricane again in 12-18hrs....and was fairly rediculed for that statement.......we will see between 12-6pm today if i am correct.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
its so nice the GOM has her Christmas lights up in early November


good one.....lets hope they don't get blowed off tho.......LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:


which way left or right.....????
its so nice the GOM has her Christmas lights up in early November
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1964. xcool



TampaSpin
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603


which way left or right.....????
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It's late. I need sleep. Goodnight everyone. Hopefully Ida doesn't haven't too many tricks up her sleeve ;)
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1961. LemieT
Minus the shear, am I the only one who sees a little Charley in this storm? What if there was not as much shear in the GOM and West Carib, the OHP is so high this could be cat 3 by tomorrow evening...
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1960. xcool



new update
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting xcool:
Link

wow! that has it hitting la/ms coast. right where i live. well that ain't gonna happen.if its more east than the track had it then don't that mean that its taking a more eastern track? if it stays a tropical storm or if its only a cat. 1 that will be ok with me, but if its any stronger i will be worried. i go back and forth between st. Tammany(a mile off the lake) and st. Bernard. i see the work they do on the levees and i can tell you that what is there now is not good enough right now. they are headed in the right direction but they are not there yet.
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For anyone interested, here's my take on Ida.
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1957. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting hunkerdown:
TS, did your tropical update alert alarm go off :)


Yep my head hit the computer desk as i feel asleep in my nice leather chair......LOL
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1954. xcool
Link
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting xcool:
00z ecwf Ida nearing or hitting the north central gulf coast

can you post a link to that
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1952. xcool
00z ecwf Ida nearing or hitting the north central gulf coast
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting TampaSpin:
000
WTNT61 KNHC 070629
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
130 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

RECENTLY RECEIVED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IDA
HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

FORECASTER BRENNAN



TS, did your tropical update alert alarm go off :)
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Quoting sarahjola:
which model is more dependable?
its not that cut and dry, plus the info that goes into the models has to be accurate and I really dont feel the information that is currently going in now will ultimately be the information that will be going in for the longer term path...I hope that made sense
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 070629
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
130 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

RECENTLY RECEIVED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IDA
HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

FORECASTER BRENNAN



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1948. xcool
hunkerdown you rigth
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
The door to the GOM appears to be opening up nicely for this one.



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Quoting xcool:


I wouldnt put too much credence in any models at this point since Ida is in her "redevelopment stage". Until her ultimate reorganization/strength are determined, the models are merely playing with guesses.
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which model is more dependable?
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the bamd model has it going right over me here in fla panhandle.
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for those newer to this site, there is a tab at the top left of the page under Features labeled "Tropical/Huricane", see link below. Click on that link and scroll down and you will fins a gluttony of helpful links, most notably the link for National Hurrican Center which will give you all of the official statements, updates and satellite loops.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
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1942. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Seastep:
My apologies to southdade and weathercane. Too late. g'nite.


Its fine no need to apologize. Goodnight, and take care.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
your response is correct as to steering influence based on strength (as you said) but this is not completely relative to the "turning" in relation to the speed of the storm, which is what was asked

Well most of the time a storm slows before a directional change. I felt that the speed of the storm and turning don't really relate because the speed is determined by the steering currents anyway.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.