Ida survives its Central American crossing
Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.
Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.
Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.
The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You're wrong by your own evidence. Look again at your own link. That arrow pointing at her just off the coast says 7am SATURDAY, and that is where she is now. This puts their 11/5 10am forecast track off to SW of where she is TODAY, which is FRIDAY.
I see the too Beell. Interesting dynamics from the GFS that would trend more towards climatology. I'm not buying the loop track but with a shortwave diving down would favor a ENE or Eastward track of a system in the GOM.
Now instead of being concerned about IDA - I am getting hungry.
Other places are Champion House & Seymour's Jerk - but area they are in is a little roughish! If driving try "Over the Edge" on North Side - but could be adversely affected by squally weather there.
Big blow just scooted thru on Brac South Side but still dry
What part of Tampa. I really want to move there. Grandkids are in Atlanta. Makes the choice difficult.
You also need to consider timing, they are off by about 12 hours from yesterdays 4 PM EST forecast.
It is also because above there have been above normal low level divergence over the area. The month October was dominated by strong ridges over the SE coast, as a result of a negative NAO. This caused a lot of sunny days and adiabatic warming in the Caribbean. The subtropical ridge has also been farther south than average this season.
track talker
She moved faster off the coast than I expected.
Bastardi, is that you?
She was supposed to move out by 18Z...you were close.
Fascinating, yet somehow frightening
Very strong divergence aloft should help "ventilate" Ida and allow her to quickly build deep convection over the entire storm later this evening and overnight as the storm moves completely back over water. This increase in convection should allow it to quickly become a tropical storm again this evening (only needs 5 mph higher winds) and then slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours.
Right now, looking at all the models and current oceanic/atmospheric condition leads me to believe that Ida will again become a minimal hurricane on Saturday and should maintain that intensity (cat 1 or possibly 2) through the day on Sunday. As it enters the Gulf on Monday, the combination of a cooler ocean and dryer mid-level environment should very slowly weaken the storm. I still anticipate a strong tropical storm or minimal category 1 hurricane to impact somewhere between Alabama and Southwestern Florida later on Monday or Tuesday (best guess currently is the Florida Panhandle).
Models suggest that there will be increasing southerly shear in the next 24 hours that will probably stop the storm from intensifying much further in spite of the very warm water. If however, the storm moves fast enough with the flow that the circulation doesn't not become tilted then there is certainly the possibility of Ida becoming a Category 2 or even 3 storm. Even though this is a less likely occurrence (25% or so), it bears close watching.
Nope. But he did say 36 hours ago that she was going to stay much closer to the coast and move faster back over water than what NHC was calling for. Obama would hate to admit it, but it's obvious the best talent is in the private sector where the competitive money is.
Good afternoon,
LMAO!!!
Yes, it appears the center may be relocating more towards the heavier convection.
Course one could take the opinion that we were looking at the 500mb reflection of the storm itself lol. But, I did check, and the shortwave begins to appear over the central Gulf coast at about 84 hrs on the 12Z as a separate entity.
I am in downtown at the moment for work, but I live on Davis Islands.
So am I. It's off. Listen to what I said and look again. I'm done w/ you. poof.
Ugh.
You know, this Caymen WeatherWatch on CayCompass.com isn't that bad; helpful since the Islands' gov. is on holiday.
Link
lol :)
As you know, Davis Islands is the most at-risk part of Tampa bay. A 40mph SW wind will flood it. Good luck.
Veterans Day: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 81
Can I change those maps Flood? I don't like them.
Yes I know, that is why flood insurance costs so much.
Nice area. I try to visit Clearwater Beach often.
He does hit one now and again, but much like stormkat he tends to sing the same song over and over again...the difference is, Bastardi does have science to back him up (mostly)
Possibly! She has the potential to be stronger than she was previously. A very weak deep layered ridge will be moving across the SE U.S over the next couple days. This will help decrease shear over the SW Caribbean even further. The enhanced enhanced surface convergence caused the MJO will also result in a positive feedback in the upper atmosphere. TCHP is quite high over the area too. I expect weakening when it reaches the GOM.
GFS shear
Viewing: 551 - 601
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