Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2040 - 1990

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

I'm not feeling too well today, all week in fact, so I will be on and off today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yeah surfmom, some big breakers!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2038. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
Morning Ike!
Hummmm I'DA never thought IDA get this far....

what makes me nervous is IKE - three letters starting w/ the letter I

IDA - three letters, starting with an I

Is this your BAD TWIN sister IKE?????


Mornin surfmom. You may finally get to ride some waves!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2037. surfmom
Morning Ike!
Hummmm I'DA never thought IDA get this far....

what makes me nervous is IKE - three letters starting w/ the letter I

IDA - three letters, starting with an I

Is this your BAD TWIN sister IKE?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2036. IKE
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Ike, is the sheer going to affect it Sunday or Monday?


It should. Looks like the low west of it should help it ventilate some.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2035. IKE
Buoy 42055 in the Bay of Campeche....22N and 94W

"Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ike, is the sheer going to affect it Sunday or Monday?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2033. IKE
Buoy 42056 at the Yucatan basin...19.9N and 85W

"Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 91 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.5 °F"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Haven't seen anything on it looking at models. NAM had something on it yesterday, but it's unreliable on tropical systems.
Thanks.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
2031. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
morning Ike, anything possible with the blob in the sw Caribbean ?


Haven't seen anything on it looking at models. NAM had something on it yesterday, but it's unreliable on tropical systems.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


I'm surrounded by 2 lakes, so my temp stays up.

Here's a PWS about 6 miles from me....with pretty accurate readings...

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Clear
38.2 F

Clear
Windchill: 38 F
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 38 F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.16 in (Steady)
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
Morning Weather 456, Ike and everyone else who is up, anything possible with the blob in the sw Caribbean ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
Quoting Chicklit:


Link

Hopefully Ida looks worse than she is.
back to sleepyland...


She may look all impressive - but her banding is incredibly dodgy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning

While Ida does look good, the lack outflow to its southwest is indicative of shear

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2027. IKE
Quoting jipmg:


lol wow I would do anything for your conditions, I mean its 78 here..


I'm surrounded by 2 lakes, so my temp stays up.

Here's a PWS about 6 miles from me....with pretty accurate readings...

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Clear
38.2 °F

Clear
Windchill: 38 °F
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.16 in (Steady)
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2026. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


I hear ya. I don't blame you for wanting a weather change.

I've got 48.9 at my house....Crestview,FL...just to my west, has 37 degrees at the airport.


lol wow I would do anything for your conditions, I mean its 78 here..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2025. IKE
Marine forecast from Mobile,AL....

"MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL
GET STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A GENERAL EASTERLY. IDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW BECOMING STRONG
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. AS IDA
MOVES PAST CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE SUDNAY...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS
IS LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING...SO THE FARTHEST
NORTH POINT OF IDA`S TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH.
THE
CENTER AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE 34 KNOTS WINDS STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA.".........


There's the reason for the shift in models.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2024. IKE
Quoting jipmg:


I hope it draws in an arctic front and pulls it through southern florida LOL I am getting tired of the 80S and 90S..


I hear ya. I don't blame you for wanting a weather change.

I've got 48.9 at my house....Crestview,FL...just to my west, has 37 degrees at the airport.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2023. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it could.

Weather is going to be awful throughout the entire northern gulf coast.



I hope it draws in an arctic front and pulls it through southern florida LOL I am getting tired of the 80S and 90S..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2022. IKE
Quoting jipmg:


I wonder if she becomes extra tropical would that mean it could draw in some cold air from the north


Looks like it could.

Weather is going to be awful throughout the entire northern gulf coast.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2021. IKE
Looks like the BOC low will help Ida ventilate some and help eject Ida to a general north track at a faster rate of speed.

Interested to see what the NHC says if these model trends continue.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2020. jipmg
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
330 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S.
INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND MIDDLE GULF THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR STRONG NE TO E WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM
IDA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 3 AM CST
TRACKS NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IDA IS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 23.0N 87.1W BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...TO NEAR 26.5N 88.0W BY LATE MON NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING
NE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NEAR 28.0N 86.5W BY LATE TUE NIGHT.
STRONG N WINDS WILL OVERTAKE THE WESTERN GULF BY WED.


I wonder if she becomes extra tropical would that mean it could draw in some cold air from the north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2019. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
330 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S.
INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND MIDDLE GULF THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR STRONG NE TO E WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM
IDA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 3 AM CST
TRACKS NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IDA IS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 23.0N 87.1W BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...TO NEAR 26.5N 88.0W BY LATE MON NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING
NE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NEAR 28.0N 86.5W BY LATE TUE NIGHT.
STRONG N WINDS WILL OVERTAKE THE WESTERN GULF BY WED.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2018. IKE
6Z NOGAPS...


NOGAPS...CMC and UKMET are on the western side of the guidance.

GFS(kind of in the middle). GFDL...HWRF and ECMWF are on the eastern side of the guidance.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2017. jipmg
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Actually, she is improving dramatically with every stride she takes. She's wobbling some, but that's due more to the rapid intensification. I don't see much shear yet, but it could be coming. Unless she blows up like a nuclear bomb out there.


If there was no shear it would be perfectly symmetrical, notice how there's very poor(if any) outflow on the south western side, it it cant breathe out it cant intensify much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2016. IKE
Quoting jipmg:
Looks like the models suggest a panhandle or sorrounding states land fall then drops to the SE slowly weakening and headed for other portions of florida..

Its interesting, the speed increase really did push the models


I agree.

Oh well...I won't have any leaves left on the trees.

Can't believe this...in November!


Quoting jipmg:
IDA is having issues, the shear is beginning to affect it, its clearly being chocked on the south western side, and if that continues it MAY keep it from hurricane intensity


Yeah...it's being sheared some...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting jipmg:
IDA is having issues, the shear is beginning to affect it, its clearly being chocked on the south western side, and if that continues it MAY keep it from hurricane intensity


Actually, she is improving dramatically with every stride she takes. She's wobbling some, but that's due more to the rapid intensification. I don't see much shear yet, but it could be coming. Unless she blows up like a nuclear bomb out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2014. jipmg
IDA is having issues, the shear is beginning to affect it, its clearly being chocked on the south western side, and if that continues it MAY keep it from hurricane intensity
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2013. jipmg
Looks like the models suggest a panhandle or sorrounding states land fall then drops to the SE slowly weakening and headed for other portions of florida..

Its interesting, the speed increase really did push the models
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2012. IKE
Looks like Ida and this system...low...whatever it is, in the western GOM will combine and make for a healthy extratropical or even tropical system in the northern to NE GOM.

You picked a good spot OZ! Maybe you'll get that interview after all. Just don't put me on camera.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
There will probably be a beautiful visible sat. image when the sun finally comes up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2010. IKE
00Z UKMET...


00Z NOGAPS...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
IDA has all the makings of a hurricane this A.M.
Do you get the feeling that toddlers are suddenly at the helm over at the NHC?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2008. IKE
6Z GFS at 72 hours....looks like a landfall of Ida west of the Florida panhandle....around Mobile,AL.....or southern Mississippi....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2007. IKE
CycloneOZ....Pensacola looks like a good spot.

ECMWF...GFDL and HWRF have it getting close to the NW FL. panhandle....

00Z GFDL at 96 hours....




00Z HWRF at 90 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
shes going to have to start getting west if shes going to play out like the computer models.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2005. jipmg
There is some shear affecting our storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2004. jipmg
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009110700&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

CMC expects it to hit Louisiana and then turn back to southern florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2003. IKE
Not sure if anyone posted this earlier....anyone see the 00Z ECMWF?

Now I know I can't go back to sleep.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Have a safe trip. You'll be about 70 miles west of me.


I still want that interview! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2001. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:
Hello all:

Just outside of Vernon, TX. 6 1/2 hours of sleep at a Walmart in Childress.

Headed for P'cola...long drive scheduled for today. Last chase of the season. Everything is going well.

Brought all my equipment since I'm driving.

Ida looks very organized. Today, she should become a 'cane (as I predicted yesterday)...but will she hold it together? Will she make landfall?

No rush to find out!!!

Get to watch the Finz game with P'colaDoug and go fishing first. :)

Check in later. Have a great day! :)


Have a safe trip. You'll be about 70 miles west of me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hello all:

Just outside of Vernon, TX. 6 1/2 hours of sleep at a Walmart in Childress.

Headed for P'cola...long drive scheduled for today. Last chase of the season. Everything is going well.

Brought all my equipment since I'm driving.

Ida looks very organized. Today, she should become a 'cane (as I predicted yesterday)...but will she hold it together? Will she make landfall?

No rush to find out!!!

Get to watch the Finz game with P'colaDoug and go fishing first. :)

Check in later. Have a great day! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1999. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning, Ike Good Morning everyone


Good morning.

Not sure I can go back to sleep now...lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
oops, double post
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Nov 7, 3:54 am EST

Fair

53 °F
(12 °C)
Humidity: 48 %
Wind Speed: SW 6 MPH
Barometer: 29.93" (1013.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 34 °F (1 °C)
Wind Chill: 51 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Good Morning, Ike Good Morning everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looking like we might see an eye today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1994. jipmg
Ida is looking impressive, sadly she has caught my attention greatly, I can't sleep and I have to test for the SAT in 3 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1993. IKE
...IDA STRENGTHENING...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...
4:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 17.1°N 84.1°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just got home from work. Checking Ida, she looks impressive. CycloneOz is enroute to Pensacola from his home in Mew Mexico. Gonna use my crib as his jumping off point to document landfall. Assuming there is one. Bedtime now. More later from the Extreme Hurricane Team.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2040 - 1990

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
72 °F
Light Rain Mist