Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jipmg:


How did you get an updated image so early? Can you link me to the loop



The above is the first visible image, so a visible loop will include all pics from yesterday except for this one at the end.

Here is the site:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL112009
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2089. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


They must be showing outdated model runs. Or I'm dreaming.


nope, it said 7 AM on them, they had the system VERY CLOSE to the coast or a couple of them did, then hook it back to the south, I guess they have outdated graphics.. I keep loosing faith in mainstream media
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2080. WxLogic

Actually they should have already departed based on that schedule: C. 07/1115Z
1115Z is 6:15 AM EST. However they did preposition a plane in Homestead the other day which would be a shorter flying time to meet the "On Station": E. 07/1500Z TO 07/1900Z
of 10 AM EST.
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2087. IKE
Quoting jipmg:
They showed the model runs on local 10, and none of them had ida over land but spinning to the SE and then almost due south over the northen and central gulf of mexico?


They must be showing outdated model runs. Or I'm dreaming.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good Morning IDA


oh my IDA has woken up mad... I caught a sneer on her face
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2085. jipmg
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good Morning IDA



How did you get an updated image so early? Can you link me to the loop
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2084. IKE
D. 17.2N 84.7W

Interesting that it's already further north then what the NHC pinpointed as Ida's coordinates on the first recon.
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2083. jipmg
They showed the model runs on local 10, and none of them had ida over land but spinning to the SE and then almost due south over the northen and central gulf of mexico?
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

For Christsake y'all play in a dome stadium.. pitch a tent.... waa waaa i might get wet tailgating for the 7-0 Saints (IKN myabe 6-0) but whatever...

I, unfortunately, no longer have season tickets,but for those who do, just saying...
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Good Morning IDA

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2080. WxLogic
4HRs or so until next HH Departure:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EST THU 06 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-162

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0211A IDA
C. 07/1115Z
D. 17.2N 84.7W
E. 07/1500Z TO 07/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A IDA
C. 08/0145Z
D. 18.7N 85.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 08/1800Z
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
Well, Well, Well... Look at what we have here... We finally have some model consensus! At least between 3 of the Global Models(GFS,CMC, and ECMWF). They all agree on The BOC System and Ida merging into one large Extra-Tropical Cyclone in the central Gulf of Mexico. This would cause Coastal Flooding due to strong Easterly winds in SE LA, at least initially. Some other impacts that you should expect should be heavy rain(3-5 inches possible and this amount may need to be adjusted higher, which could raise the threat flooding as a concern, and gust's up to 50mph will be possible Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning here in SE LA

I'm in west central FL on the coast. They make no mention whatsoever re: coastal flooding, as LA has already forewarned. Would I expect this to be an issue? I am suprised tha nothing has been said. It is my worry the moment a storm gets near the Gulf. Thanks for any light you might shed.
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2078. IKE
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Quoting NOLA2005:
Tailgating for Saints game will not be pleasant :(

For Christsake y'all play in a dome stadium.. pitch a tent.... waa waaa i might get wet tailgating for the 7-0 Saints (IKN myabe 6-0) but whatever...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We have been getting steady rain since last night and looks like a lot more to come.


I see that but then again that is what one would expect being on the right side of Ida. Looks like it will pass you well to the West as I indicated last night.

Once the HH gets to it I fully expect that they will find a central pressure down in the 995 range or less. It has all the hallmarks of a storm that is well on the way to becoming a hurricane once again IMO.

Anyway I am out the door now but will check in later. BFN
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2075. jipmg
North at 350 degrees, or just west of due north movement, and the winds are still 45mph? LOL?
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2074. IKE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

...IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD...

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE...AND FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE/BRENNAN

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2073. IKE
...IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD...

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
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Tailgating for Saints game will not be pleasant :(
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2071. IKE
...IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD...
7:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 17.4°N 84.1°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good day everyone.

Just a couple of posts then off to do a few things. Ida is right on track to the NNW and is on a steady improvement regime right now. In the last few frames the deep convection has expanded to the SW and I still believe that it has a better than 50% chance of becoming a hurricane again by late tonight.

The center looks to be closing in on 18N so it still has time to achieve that IMO before entering the GOM.

We have been getting steady rain since last night and looks like a lot more to come.
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2069. jipmg
Although I think if it hits hurricane status, it may move more eastward than forecasted due to the upper level steering flow
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm watching Ida very closely here in southeast Louisiana.


The 00Z GFS and CMC show as much as 8 inches of rain falling here. I'm surprised our local NWS office isn't putting more emphasis into that. 8 inches of rain causes big problems here so I am concerned.
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2067. jipmg
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


True also, the general consensus has been into the upper GOM, but then which way after that and at what strength.

Also, we may have another area to watch down by the Colombian Low, yesterdays QuikScat showed a weak cyclonic circulation and now there is a flare up of convection. Only the Not A Model is showing development.


They take is southeast after it hits or approaches the gulf coast
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Coastal flood watches for SE La. were out late last night.
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Quoting WxLogic:


True, but at least as time goes through the guidance models at least show a general consensus of where it might head.


True also, the general consensus has been into the upper GOM, but then which way after that and at what strength.

Also, we may have another area to watch down by the Colombian Low, yesterdays QuikScat showed a weak cyclonic circulation and now there is a flare up of convection. Only the Not A Model is showing development.
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I'm watching Ida very closely here in southeast Louisiana.
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I'm watching Ida very closely here in southeast Louisiana.
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Good day everyone.

Just a couple of posts then off to do a few things. Ida is right on track to the NNW and is on a steady improvement regime right now. In the last few frames the deep convection has expanded to the SW and I still believe that it has a better than 50% chance of becoming a hurricane again by late tonight.

The center looks to be closing in on 18N so it still has time to achieve that IMO before entering the GOM.

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2061. jipmg
Wow ida if fighting back the shear.. literally pushing on it..

I may have been wrong about it not reaching hurricane strenght..
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2060. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Highly fluid situation, another 6 hours may show those two models reverse the way its been going.


True, but at least as time goes through the guidance models at least show a general consensus of where it might head.
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Well, Well, Well... Look at what we have here... We finally have some model consensus! At least between 3 of the Global Models(GFS,CMC, and ECMWF). They all agree on The BOC System and Ida merging into one large Extra-Tropical Cyclone in the central Gulf of Mexico. This would cause Coastal Flooding due to strong Easterly winds in SE LA, at least initially. Some other impacts that you should expect should be heavy rain(3-5 inches possible and this amount may need to be adjusted higher, which could raise the threat flooding as a concern, and gust's up to 50mph will be possible Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning here in SE LA.

GFS
Photobucket

ECMWF

Photobucket

CMC

Photobucket
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Quoting IKE:


I may need shutters after all.

Unbelievable....I've got so much crow coming to me.


Highly fluid situation, another 6 hours may show those two models reverse the way its been going.
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2057. WxLogic
Shortwave imagery shows an little more better outflow aloft w/ CI fanning out in all quadrants... indicative of a decreasing shear.
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2056. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06Z GFDL and HWRF/ Basically the same for the first few days then GFDL down towards the Keys, HWRF east across the Panhandle.


I may need shutters after all.

Unbelievable....I've got so much crow coming to me.
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2055. IKE
Both the GFDL and HWRF have Ida as a cane....


6Z GFDL on Ida...


6Z HWRF on Ida...
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2054. WxLogic
Good morning....
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06Z GFDL and HWRF/ Basically the same for the first few days then GFDL down towards the Keys, HWRF east across the Panhandle.
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With Ida moving faster I wonder if it hits Florida before the extratropical transition. With the computer models turning the system SW at end of forecaste period, will it just linger in the Gulf & attempt to become Subtropical Storm Ida?
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2051. WxLogic
Good morning...
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Gulf Coast of U.S. Targeted by Two Tropical Systems

Two systems of tropical origin are being watched for impact in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and beyond. One or both systems will kick up winds, waves and rain in the region that potentially can disrupt commerce and lead to damaging flooding. The extent of these problems will depend on the strength and speed of Ida heading for the eastern Gulf and an unnamed system in the western Gulf.
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2049. IKE
BOC buoy shows winds gusting to near tropical storm strength....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure"
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2048. OGal
Good Morning all,

My thoughts on Ida are that Florida will see lots of wind and rain. The pressure gradient from the high over Florida and the low in the GOM will bring wind conditions. Now if she makes it back to hurricane status I don't know what she will do.
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2047. surfmom
Quoting Weather456:
I'm not feeling too well today, all week in fact, so I will be on and off today.


: (
take care - probably some crud a tourista' left behind... they leave their germs here all the time too!!
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Hurricane Hunters goes out at 1600Z or 12PM my time....11am EST

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2045. surfmom
Quoting trunkmonkey:
yeah surfmom, some big breakers!


*smile* well, I'm not about about the big breakers... though at this point my son is......

Just don't want to see any trouble for my Florida Friends..... I like a bit of a TS buoy rocker and then the system should go Kaput. Waves w/out guilt is my motto.

But as we all know, what we want and what Mother Nature hands out are two different things.

I'm rather surprised I'da never counted on this happening.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

While Ida does look good, the lack outflow to its southwest is indicative of shear



While this year has been filled with shear...most late season tropical cyclones are subject to more shear and tend to be right handed. In other the most significant weather is on the right side of the circulation
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Quoting Weather456:
I'm not feeling too well today, all week in fact, so I will be on and off today.
Hope it's not swine flu and hope you feel better.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
Thanks, Ike, looks like I can keep my ruc sack stored away till next year! yeah-hoo!
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2041. surfmom
Quoting IKE:


Mornin surfmom. You may finally get to ride some waves!


yes, it's looking that way - some groundswell - haven't seen any since last year... have had wave days - but they've been windswell.

GULFSTER SURF REPORT -

More gusty NE winds today will be ripe for the kiters and leave the Gulf very flat... again! Waking up today it feels a bit cooler out and with the wind feels, down right nice. West coast will remain flat through the weekend as all eyes on IDA, which was down graded after making land fall in Nica. The storm has held together and has reemerge back out over warm water and hopefully get its strength back up. Most models agree that she will move N and into the lower Gulf by Monday, after that their seems to be some disagreement in exactly what will become of her. Quite a few influences next week with a low riding along a cold front that drops into the Gulf bumping into Ida, , and coupled with moderate upper level sheer, she definitely will have her work cut out for her. We'll be keeping a close eye on her progress and keep you updated. Have a great weekend. Gulf Temp 79
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I'm not feeling too well today, all week in fact, so I will be on and off today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.