Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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But Reedzone, my local met said that low from Mexico in the Gulf right now would shear apart Ida...so how would it make it a perfect storm?
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AL 11 2009110712 BEST 0 174N 841W 45 1000 TS
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11222
Good Morning StormW, is "Uh oh" in order?
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Good morning, 45mph TS Ida, sorry I just don't buy that one, this imo is at least 60-65mph storm, bordering once again on hurricane status.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7935
Great CDO with -80C cloudtops associated with Ida


Could get up to 60 mph today if she keeps up.
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2132. Dakster
StormW - GOOD MORNING!

Got a gallon of coffee on the stove yet? I think you may need it.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Storm, Good morning. Boy it's cold this morning. So how is Miss Ida doing this morning?
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Good morning sir.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
Quoting Dakster:
Reedzone - For alot of people's sake I hope you are wrong. But I can't discount the notion you could be correct.


Like I've been saying all along, I'm not the only one who believes this, talk to Weather456. Morning StormW :)
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Mornin' Senior Chief
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2124. Dakster
Reedzone - For alot of people's sake I hope you are wrong. But I can't discount the notion you could be correct.
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954FltCane, you have mail
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Can someone tell me why were talking about a perfect storm here?
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Quoting P451:


I want to know the thinking of those that thought:

a) She'd never regenerate (trolls)
b) She'd never be more than a 45kt TS again (NHC)
c) She'd be torn apart by shear (Florida news mets)

etc....

When it was so painfully obvious, and to our own experts (Storm, Tampa, 456, etc) and to us hobbyists, that this thing had such a great chance to explode, because, it's core remained not just intact but exceptionally good, and all the conditions for quick regeneration were there!

I just don't understand. Now what do we have this AM? We have a handful of individuals scrapping to cover themselves over this (You'll see, just you watch, we'll get the 'well it was a dynamic setup and we didn't want to say one way or another what was going to happen until we saw it happen."

Well, hell, we can all do that, wait until after the storm to say there was a storm.


Let us grade this:

NHC: F
News mets: F
WU Trolls: F
WU Hobbyists: C
WU Experts: A+

Yep. Good job, fellas.

Now, well, let us hope this doesn't kill anyone. This is looking NASTY.


Here's a map I made yesterday concering the potential "Perfect Storm II"
Photobucket
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Quoting P451:
Good Morning... and... WOWWWWWW. Yeah, so much for the NHC's "45kt" maximum they tagged Ida to be. I swear I trust this blog more than them when it comes to these systems. A number of us were discussing yesterday how we thought this had a good chance to explode. And also the "perfect storm" seems to be taking shape as well.

Florida? Better get cracking and get prepared. This one could be nasty.

12HR WV LOOP: wow.


I couldn't agree with you more. The NHC has gone ridiculously conservative this year. I'm i'm usually a 'downcaster' but they are making me look like a wishcaster its become so bad. I will always reference back to them because all in all they know what they're doing......but on this one I'm like wondering. Just like doctors a praticing so I am convinced mets are also. I have to agree with you though, if you weed out all the BS the info on this site is just as good of not better than the NHC, and we get it almost real time to boot !!!
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Actually Severehurricnae, I live in Northeastern Florida, the East Coast :)
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


I would keep a close eye on it. It could bring you some rough weather once the Westerlies pick it up. Everybody east of SE LA should expect somewhat similar conditions. As far as coastal flooding goes...To be honest I am not familiar with the underwater topography just off the West Florida Coastline so I can't justify if whether or Not coastal flooding will be an issue. What I can tell you is that there will be lots of rough surf and I would imagine that coastal erosion is possible but I am not sure about coastal flooding. I'm sure somebody like Tampaspin, StormW, or Reedzone can help you out since they all live in the Western Florida Panhandle and I would imagine that are familiar with the local topography over there.


Severe...thanks for the response. Verrry shallow area of the coast here - Citrus County/Crystal River. There are several very low-lying, shallow areas just north of the Tampa Bay. I am fairly good at judging weather influences on tides/flood levels etc., but am curious as to why no mention. I thought possibly that it is expected too far west in the Gulf? The trip back south should suck the water back out in my experience. Thank you again for your opinion.
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2114. IKE
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Quoting P451:
Good Morning... and... WOWWWWWW. Yeah, so much for the NHC's "45kt" maximum they tagged Ida to be. I swear I trust this blog more than them when it comes to these systems. A number of us were discussing yesterday how we thought this had a good chance to explode. And also the "perfect storm" seems to be taking shape as well.

Florida? Better get cracking and get prepared. This one could be nasty.

12HR WV LOOP: wow.



Actually P451, you and I and some others are the only ones that believe the Perfect Storm II will happen, the rest of the people are downcasting the whole mess.. Their gonna end up getting hurt in the end if they live on the Gulf Coast.
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Quoting leftovers:
notice alot of local forecasters and bloggers are downplaying idas threat. hope they all dont get a pie in their face


They don't understand that all of this energy could collide into one, making a perfect storm. They don't seem to take that potential threat seriously, even Weather456 and StormW thinks it's possible.
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Quoting NOLA2005:

S'ok! Thanks for the visit here, hope you had a good time! I won't jinx anything by saying any thing ;)

Heck NOLA the game was here.... although I've done a Sugar Bowl up where u at and enjoyed NOLA.... haven't been there since Katrina... please tell me it's just as fun and we will plan a trip. We have canceled/diverted a few trips to NOLA since Katrina because we thought it wasn't going to be the same as pre-Kat.
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Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
I never thought we would be talking about a hurricane 8 weeks into SEC football
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Looking at the satellite this morning of the whole view of 3 systems, the BOC low has organized as well as Ida. These two and moisture from 96E still have a good chance on emerging and becoming a large Hybrid system, "Perfect Storm II".
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jipmg, this site has up-to-date images also. You can zoom animate & change colors.

Link
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2102. aquak9
since they all live in the Western Florida Panhandle

SevereHurricane- the part of Florida that sticks out in the water, is known as the peninsula...

the panhandle is the part that's attached to the rest of the CONUS.
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2100. WxLogic
From MLB NWS (at least for now):

...PERIPHERAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM IDA POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...

MON-TUE...THE TWO MAIN FEATURES AT PLAY WILL BE THE RATHER LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SEAWARD/EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS AND TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MON MORN WILL FIND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND
THE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING CONTINUED LONG FETCH
EASTERLIES...WHILE IDA SHOULD BE FINDING HER WAY TOWARD THE OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WILL
REINFORCE A BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY PATTERN WITH A PROLONGED
CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. IDA WILL
ENDEAVOR TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF THE MARITIME FLOW
ACROSS ECFL...WILL OFFER A REINTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN MON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/COUNTIES...THEN INCREASING AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE. THE GFS REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ITS HANDLING OF IDA BUT ITS SOLUTION
IS WITHIN THE REALM OF REASONABLE POSSIBILITIES. THUS...THE
FORECAST FOR TUE BEARS WATCHING AS IDA`S EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FACTORS. IDA MAY MOVE NORTH A LITTLE
FASTER AND THEREBY OFFER A HYBRID-STYLE TORNADO OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE PENINSULA TUE INTO WED. YET...OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN ALSO IMPROVE WITH IDA`S CLOSEST APPROACH.


EXTENDED...IDA SEEMS DESTINED FOR A TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL AS
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND BRING ADVERSE
MID-LEVEL SHEAR TO THE REGION. IDA WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED DUE TO
THE ADDED VERTICAL SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ASSIMLATED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...IT WILL INVIGORATE THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ITS REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUE NITE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY REDUCING. FOR THU AND
FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ALONG WITH SOME OVERALL
DEEP LAYER DRYING.

My exact same though in bold.
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Quoting jipmg:
Going to be a windy day in SFLA, as ida strengthens and moves more notherly the pressure gradient is expected to tighten even more.. forecasts say potential for common wind gusts up and over 30mph

Yes it was very gusty yesterday and today is supposed to be worse consistent 25-35 mph winds are forecasted out of the ENE
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Sorry bout that, went to the Saints Fins game down here and the Saints were mighty impressive.. as a true Dolphins fan dont want you guys to go undefeated but wouldn't mind seeing your team here in early February.

S'ok! Thanks for the visit here, hope you had a good time! I won't jinx anything by saying any thing ;)
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Quoting TheMeanSeason:


I would keep a close eye on it. It could bring you some rough weather once the Westerlies pick it up. Everybody east of SE LA should expect somewhat similar conditions. As far as coastal flooding goes...To be honest I am not familiar with the underwater topography just off the West Florida Coastline so I can't justify if whether or Not coastal flooding will be an issue. What I can tell you is that there will be lots of rough surf and I would imagine that coastal erosion is possible but I am not sure about coastal flooding. I'm sure somebody like Tampaspin, StormW, or Reedzone can help you out since they all live in the Western Florida Panhandle and I would imagine that are familiar with the local topography over there.
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Quoting Keys99:
Good Morning All
A GALE WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT.

From Key West Weather



Yah the 36 hour Wind/Wave Forecast showed 30 knot wind barbs through the Keys.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11222
2095. jipmg
Going to be a windy day in SFLA, as ida strengthens and moves more notherly the pressure gradient is expected to tighten even more.. forecasts say potential for common wind gusts up and over 30mph
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2094. IKE
Buoy 262 NM south of Panama City...

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 91 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.03 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
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2093. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
2080. WxLogic

Actually they should have already departed based on that schedule: C. 07/1115Z
1115Z is 6:15 AM EST. However they did preposition a plane in Homestead the other day which would be a shorter flying time to meet the "On Station": E. 07/1500Z TO 07/1900Z
of 10 AM EST.


Sweet deal...
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2092. Keys99
Good Morning All
A GALE WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT.

From Key West Weather

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Quoting NOLA2005:

I, unfortunately, no longer have season tickets,but for those who do, just saying...

Sorry bout that, went to the Saints Fins game down here and the Saints were mighty impressive.. as a true Dolphins fan dont want you guys to go undefeated but wouldn't mind seeing your team here in early February.
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Quoting jipmg:


How did you get an updated image so early? Can you link me to the loop



The above is the first visible image, so a visible loop will include all pics from yesterday except for this one at the end.

Here is the site:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL112009
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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