Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2009

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Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.

Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.


Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.


Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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IDA LLC will most likely dissipate overland.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Zoom in and you can see the jog to the EAST some.
If that is the case then it would re-emerge over water sooner rather than later . Correct ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Patrap:
Tropical Storm IDA RSS Feed icon Storm Archive
...IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
4:00 PM EST Thu Nov 5
Location: 13.3N 83.7W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb


Quoting Patrap:
Tropical Storm IDA RSS Feed icon Storm Archive
...IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
4:00 PM EST Thu Nov 5
Location: 13.3N 83.7W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb




Due north, not NNW.. from what I read on the NHC site. Just letting you know :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting Clearwater1:


The last direct hit in Tampa Bay was of course the 1921 cane, Oct. 25. It had a very similar path as Ida. Do the math. Add 1+9+2+1 equals 13. There is a 13 in this month, and of course on a Friday.. . . just in time for Ida. Crows falling out of the sky, well I saw a crow and it could have fell . . . I'm just saying. Ok, I'll put myself on ignore.


lol while that is funny

If you take this year 2+0+0+9 = 11

Math doesn't add up and you are not smarter than a 5th grader lol
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I still think Ida will emerge offshore at around 13.8N/83.3W.JMO
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
1032. Patrap
Tropical Storm IDA RSS Feed icon Storm Archive
...IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
4:00 PM EST Thu Nov 5
Location: 13.3N 83.7W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130362
Quoting Clearwater1:


The last direct hit in Tampa Bay was of course the 1921 cane, Oct. 25. It had a very similar path as Ida. Do the math. Add 1+9+2+1 equals 13. There is a 13 in this month, and of course on a Friday.. . . just in time for Ida. Crows falling out of the sky, well I saw a crow and it could have fell . . . I'm just saying. Ok, I'll put myself on ignore.

No your good dude in fact pointing out the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane serves as a reminder that the bay area needs to be prepared every hurricane season from June 1-November 30 and I hope Charley in '04 put people on their heels to make smart decisions and heed the evacuations.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
#1023.....NOW THAT WAS FUNNY!! I DON'T CARE WHO YOU ARE!!! ROFLMAO!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
It could just be a wobble but a little movement to the EAST appears to have occured...on the lastest loop.


Anything eastward isn't good, further east by any amount= less land.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Ida will exit mostly intact with some raggedness..to be expected after her hiccup attack over land... but enough structure to get her act back together once she starts tapping into some bath water....but after that..too early to tell what kind of force she'll be when/if she makes land.....IMO
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Zoom in and you can see the jog to the EAST some.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1026. fire635
Quoting Clearwater1:


The last direct hit in Tampa Bay was of course the 1921 cane, Oct. 25. It had a very similar path as Ida. Do the math. Add 1+9+2+1 equals 13. There is a 13 in this month, and of course on a Friday.. . . just in time for Ida. Crows falling out of the sky, well I saw a crow and it could have fell . . . I'm just saying. Ok, I'll put myself on ignore.


LOL.... hmmm. Not exactly scientific... but a theory none the less.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Does it make it with possibly another 36 hours over land?


still has a good chance to make it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting fire635:


I know I cant count on it, but the good thing is that the hook heads it towards the Tampa bay area now... usually meaning by the time 96 hours is here the hook will be somewhere else.


The last direct hit in Tampa Bay was of course the 1921 cane, Oct. 25. It had a very similar path as Ida. Do the math. Add 1+9+2+1 equals 13. There is a 13 in this month, and of course on a Friday.. . . just in time for Ida. Crows falling out of the sky, well I saw a crow and it could have fell . . . I'm just saying. Ok, I'll put myself on ignore.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1020. Patrap
Ida losing her Bones as she interacts with the Land mass,and the STS will take some MOJO fer a spell seems.

Also she has widened at the Hips and gone oval some.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130362
1019. Seastep
Navy has Ida going due N. 360.
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now its all good here in the midwest having some of the best weather i can remember in November. Keep that rain down there were way over our limit this year!
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#1011....no prob Branson Boy!! :)
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1016. fire635
I think the structure is going to be there when it emerges... reintensification may be slow, but a cat1 system isnt out of the question after it gets off land. IMO of course
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Looks like whole world has gone mad to me,I'll just leave it at that. Even the weather is getting more weird & stranger with every season.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Patrap do you think boc has a chance to form...
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1013. fire635
Quoting PcolaDan:


Were you born that stupid or is it something you developed over time???? You have NO idea what you are talking about and using an event like this to further political garbage is abhorrent.


I second that!
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Quoting Weather456:


A shadow if its former self.


Does it make it with possibly another 36 hours over land?
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Quoting Txwxchaser:
As much as I hate to and rarely do.....I'm going to have to pull the soccer ref's "red card" out and start flagging "off topic" blogs.....We haven't had much weather to discuss here this year and this late season storm is presenting some interesting and challenging forecasts and amautuer predictions...all of which I enjoy...so for those of who know how to keep on topic...THANKS!!


Sorry MOM
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1010. IKE
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I still think Ida will emerge off the coast sometime early tomorrow morning, I think Ida is moving very slowly N/NNE at the moment and is very near the coast line at this time.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
As much as I hate to and rarely do.....I'm going to have to pull the soccer ref's "red card" out and start flagging "off topic" blogs.....We haven't had much weather to discuss here this year and this late season storm is presenting some interesting and challenging forecasts and amautuer predictions...all of which I enjoy...so for those of who know how to keep on topic...THANKS!!
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Quoting Drakoen:
Ida is looking skeletal (void of deep convection) though maintaining decent structure. Not expected to emerge until Saturday.


A shadow if its former self.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1005. Patrap



The GOM System is starting to Jell and increase in convection.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130362
Quoting cybergrump:
Major Malic Hassan was the shooter.

Well that should get some attention.
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1003. bjdsrq
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
wow GFS then begins to move Ida ESE at 150 hours lol


GFS at 150 hours = random senseless jibber jabber anyway
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Quoting NRAamy:
CH...please don't use the "r" word....it's just not nice...


Sorry, how about severe cognitive deficiency instead?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

If there is anyone at blame here its our government how come they can't give insurance to injure soldiers.


Excuse me I have a friend that was badly injured in Iraq and the service takes very good care of him to this day and i know other folks from Iran and there being taken care of. So your need to look a little harder before you say something like that. But I will say I don't know a lot about the service but I do believe they do try to take care of the men and women. I am not trying to offend anyone.

Hey Floodman, what cha think about Ida?

Sheri
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Quoting TampaSpin:
New floater loop on Home page......I have put up 2 interactive floaters on IDA now.


see 990
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Ida is looking skeletal (void of deep convection) though maintaining decent structure. Not expected to emerge until Saturday.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31029
New floater loop on Home page......I have put up 2 interactive floaters on IDA now.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Thx...P451
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130362
Quoting weatherblog:
LOL I can name like 10 storms where Tampa was the predicted landfall and it misses by a lot. Right now I'm not even following the models, especially based off the latest GFS which shows something totally different than 6 hours ago. All the models are going in different directions. The only thing I'm basing my forecast on right now is common sense and climatology which would lead me to the conclusion that this won't hit any farther west than the Florida panhandle region. The most likely landfall is South Florida (Wilma comes to mind) but at this moment Central Florida is in the same amount of risk. If path were to occur, Ida could be a major hurricane because water is still very warm in those areas. If it were to hit the Panhandle or the Big Bend area, do not expect anything more than a minimal hurricane at best due to low SST's and shear.

Currently, the models are keep leaning more east so that's the trend. This reminds me of Wilma because, at first, the cone looked similar to Ida's and then it kept moving more east. In November, it will surely move NE or ENE by a front. That's pretty much a fact since almost every storm in late October/November face the same conditions.

Well...lets try to remember there are other factors in play here. 1) Will Ida be able to survive the trek across Nicaragua/Honduras. 2)Upper Air dynamics such as high and low pressure. 3) If it survives and makes it into the GOM what about wind shear from the subtropical jet. Anyways Intensity is the hardest to forecast especially out 5 days trackwise well if we continue to see this right hand hook then it's a safe bet that the high will move east into the atlantic in response to an approaching front or trough.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
CH...please don't use the "r" word....it's just not nice...
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Easy Conch he has agreed to stop and Flood walked away!
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Wow speculation on weather is great...speculation as to the motive of a whackado officer and accomplice(s)is retarded...I along with others here fought for the right to free speach, but in this case we should be authorized to take it back..shut up, if you dont know...
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Hey Tamopa you ready for my prediction and oportunistic forecast? and funny thing is i might be right this time!
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Major Malic Hassan was the shooter.
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988. jipmg
IDA moving due north

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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