Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
200911050600 12.6 -83.3 55
200911050000 12.3 -82.8 55
200911041800 11.8 -82.3 45
200911041200 11.5 -81.9 30


Storm...Ida will be north of the forecast points. Do you agree?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
Quoting IKE:


Good morning and have a nice day.

Nice looking dog you've got as your avatar.


Aqua Canine, my original avatar.

Now really gone!
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Quoting portcharlotte:


If it's there then it has moved due west since 4AM...I don't believe so ..456 and others see north and very little west component IMO.


Overall, NNW or North she certainly is not going wnw. The northerly move will change the models to the right IMO. The weakness in the Gulf is having more influence than originally thought
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
Good Morning,
I haven't been on in about a week or so (even to lurk), just got really busy (good thing). Looks like Ida is a reminder to the celebrations of predicted storm numbers that the season isn't over yet. The irony is this could well be the most "interesting" TC this year.

The pink (changing) line is the NHC forecast track (from the SFWMD).

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Quoting IKE:
COC looks to me to be near 12.8N and 83.7W.


If it's there then it has moved due west since 4AM...I don't believe so ..456 and others see north and very little west component IMO.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
911. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning Ike, can you believe we are looking at this, when it's so chilly outside?

Hoping for no effects for your area.

work calls, ya'll have a great day.


Good morning and have a nice day.

Nice looking dog you've got as your avatar.
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910. IKE
Quoting MahFL:
Also she is moving NNW not N.


I agree with you. Looks to be moving NNW. As it does so the Nicaraguan coast juts out slightly further to the east. Even if it turns due north that would keep it inland.

It would have to turn NNE to get out over water.
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g'morning Ike, can you believe we are looking at this, when it's so chilly outside?

Hoping for no effects for your area.

work calls, ya'll have a great day.
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I am seeing IDA moving north. Does anyone else see that. The center I believe is just north of the heavy convection in the last frames.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
907. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Baha- she usually posts in her OWN blog, if there's weather updates for her area, that's where you'll find her.

She's not in here very often, in DocMaster's Blog. Normally keeps to her own blog where its, errr...safer.


LOL...exactly.
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906. MahFL
As of now convection is fireing in the center.
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Baha- she usually posts in her OWN blog, if there's weather updates for her area, that's where you'll find her.

She's not in here very often, in DocMaster's Blog. Normally keeps to her own blog where its, errr...safer.
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904. MahFL
Also she is moving NNW not N.
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thank ya! seems nobody wants to agree if themodels dont say so then they cant make sensible diagnosis, what ever happened to analyzing info and data to make ajudgement call,mmmmmmmmm. too much relibility on models i am covinced this thing will make it to the south of cayman after that i will have to see how far the front and trough drifts south to affect ida IMOO(ITS MY OWN OPINION)
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902. MahFL
Remember, even if only a part of the eye/center is over water it can still feed it's self. It's not like its in South Dakota and cut off from warm water.
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901. IKE
COC looks to me to be near 12.8N and 83.7W.
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Ida is moving north



Link
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my prayers go out to the folks in nicaragua and the hunduras coast rainfall will cause flooding and mudlides, mayn the great man above be with them.
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anyone remember what W456 said yesterday? About the intense band of convection a sign of where it may want to go?

Yesterday it was traveling WNW-NW and the band of intense convection was in the same direction. Right now it has started to move northward and the intense band of convection is to the north of it. Amazing...
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
IDA could become one of these strong november hurricanes we have been experiencing the last few years
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later baha
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Last post (LOL):



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morning
it appears from sat pics that Ida is moving to the north at the moment. this means that the storm will parallel the coast of nicaragua and eventually emerge as a stronger system when it emergs in the north west caribbean. i tend to agree that Ida at the moment is a minimal hurricane
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ida will emarge off the gulf of mexico and speed up. it will jump the western coast of florida and strike daytona beach with a direct hit. then it will somehow magically skip georgia, south and north carolina and hit virginia as a cat 2.5. magically disappearing and reappearing somewhere around st. louis as a cat 3.4. then it will move north southwest while gaining strength and strike fairbanks alaska as a cat 8.2598 hurricane.

how's that for wishcasting? morning everyone.
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ida moving N now
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891. IKE
Accuweather take on Aunt Ida....

Last Update: 5-NOV-2009 04:24am EST

Tropical Storm Ida formed Wednesday afternoon in the southwestern Caribbean and has fallen just short of a hurricane this morning as it moves on shore. Ida is located near 12.8 north and 83.4 west, or about 60 miles northeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Sustained winds are near 70 mph along with higher gusts. Minimal surface pressure is 991 mb, or 29.26 inches, with movement to the northwest at 7 mph.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire eastern coast of Nicaragua. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the eastern coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields northward to the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

Landfall in central Nicaragua is imminent with Ida's current movement to the west-northwest. The most dangerous aspect of this storm over the next several days will be life-threatening rainfall. Rainfall in excess of 15 to 20 inches will fall across eastern Nicaragua and portions of eastern Honduras through the weekend, leading to dangerous flooding and mudslides. The interaction with land will cause the system to weaken considerably as it continues to move northwest on Friday and then north on Saturday, causing it to weaken quickly. However, the remnant feature is expected to move back out over water in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday night or Sunday. Very warm waters exist just east of the Yucatan Peninsula where we expect the storm to be positioned by the latter half of the upcoming weekend. These warm waters combined with minimal wind shear will likely allow Ida to re-strengthen into a tropical storm at that point. Looking deeper into the forecast through the middle of next week, we think it is possible for Ida to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Any interests in the Gulf of Mexico should pay attention to Ida's progress. However, at this point, it appears Ida would interact with strong wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, limiting the chances of further development.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic remains void of any potential tropical systems and no other features are expected to evolve anywhere in the basin through at least Thursday.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No, she came on for a few minutes last night.
Will have to read back, then. I started this a.m. reading at post #800....
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Well, I'm off for now. I'm hoping I can get wireless access at some point during the day so I can observe the progress of the blog.

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Good Morning we are going to have Tropical storm wind gust here in the Florida keys on Saturday. This High Pressure Moving in means business. From Key West weather forecast.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with a northeast wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Very windy, with a east wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Very windy, with a east wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 82. Very windy, with a east wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, it's roatangardener I was thinking about. I don't think she's posted since '07. Luckily for them, there hasn't been much to post about the last 2 seasons ... :o)
No, she came on for a few minutes last night.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
Quoting aquak9:


Helen in Roatan is a sweetheart; she has been here on WU since before Dean and Felix.

Link
Yeah, it's roatangardener I was thinking about. I don't think she's posted since '07. Luckily for them, there hasn't been much to post about the last 2 seasons ... :o)
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no it hasnt it's still off shore but it is close
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884. unf97
Good morning StormW. Looking forward also to your analysis on Ida.
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881. IKE
Looks like Ida has made landfall.

Don't see any updates from the NHC, so I don't think it will be upgraded to a hurricane at this time.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Also, don't we have a couple of bloggers from the islands N of Honduras? Hope we can hear from them about conditions today.....



Helen in Roatan is a sweetheart; she has been here on WU since before Dean and Felix.

Link
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Morning Storm :)
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Morning, Storm. What's your take on Ida this a.m.?
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Link
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any new shifts with the models ??? Good Morning all
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GFDL ida11l 2009110500 Forecast slp Java Animation

Image #



Jump:




Frame:



Animate:





Speed:


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Also, don't we have a couple of bloggers from the islands N of Honduras? Hope we can hear from them about conditions today.....

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oh crap it didnt work
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Looking at the NHC analysis of wind field, even a shortened trip across the flatter coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras is bound to create a great deal of disruption to Ida's circulation.
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target="_blank">http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009110500-ida11l&field=Sea+Level+Pr essure&hour=Animation
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869. unf97
Good morning everyone.

Ida in my judgment has reached hurricane status. The satellite imagery shows the western egde of the center is right on the coast of Nicaragua. It will be interesting too see if NHC will make the call and officially designate it as a hurricane this morning before it makes landfall. Ida also appears to be moving NW-N and I think she will move just inland alond the coastal plain of Nicaragua and Honduras for the next 36-48 hours. Due to the excellent structure of cyclone, I expect of course some weakening over land, but I don't believe it will be a drastic weakening. I think Ida will re-emerge intact in the NW Caribbean this weekend after grazing through the coast. I see the system hugging right up the coast and not penetrating very far inland.

After that, we all will just have to wait and watch what the atmospheric conditions will do into next week. Thwre are several scenarios that could play out next week. This is a very complex situation as Ida approaches the GOM. I look forward later this morning reading the analysis from Dr. Masters on his take on the compicated long range analysis on Ida.

Have a great day everyone.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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