Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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I don't think this thing will go near Tampa Bay... I think some people are posting just to stir up trouble. Boy, did I miss the blog.
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Good Morning from San Pedro Sula Honduras..

Reporting no rain at all,I just hope ida doesn't do the same trick as mitch did and start running around inside Honduras.We already have enough problems with the political crisis to add up a hurricane to the equation
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Jeff9641:
Wrong! Ida is just offshore or on the coast moving North.


Ida is onshore

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
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1013. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:
The blogs on WU are taking forever to load, edit, modify or anything. I takes me half/minute to post a comment.


Appears there's quite a bit of lurkers hitting that refresh button. LOL!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
From Roatan.. just stopped raining. absolutely still here.

will head to my office to batten down the hatches. even though ida looks to like she will pass to our east we are still in line for some heavy bands of rain... so getting more dog food, etc. will be back in touch in an hour or so.

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The short-wave over SE Mexico could induce a cyclone over the BOC. It think the UKMET shows this as merging with Ida.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1009. beell
Upper trough just east of the Rockies pushing up a ridge over the SE US. Lifting the stronger southwesterlies N and NW. This is from the 06Z GFS, Valid 00Z Tuesday (114 hrs).

NHC track has Ida just off the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula at 1AM local on Tuesday under these favorable upper level winds.

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morning all :)
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Experimental FIM Model
Uses a different shaped grid system and other model physics that are way over my head. Doesn't seem to aknowledge that Ida exists for the first ~48 hours. Just throwing it out there as another model to look at.
Field select page
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11212
Quoting leftovers:
remember the floridian governor a while ago praying to his god and then saying the other day his prayers were answered. he might have to get back on his knees again


he may indeed be getting on his knees again!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZ4DyPTEJ6A
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Interesting forecast from the UKMET Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.0N 93.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.11.2009 19.0N 93.2W MODERATE
00UTC 07.11.2009 19.3N 93.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 19.4N 93.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.11.2009 19.7N 93.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2009 20.5N 93.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2009 21.3N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2009 MERGES WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA


I think thats what the CMC shows.
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The blogs on WU are taking forever to load, edit, modify or anything. I takes me half/minute to post a comment.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
No more recon. Have to wait till the NW Caribb
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I wonder still what affect the boc system will have on this storm. just imo, the gulf system is huge.looks like a hybrid/subtropical storm in the making.Now if this much larger system possibly might consume our storm into one entity. something like the perfect storm where you had hurricane merging with a extratropical system. looking at the gfdl and the gfs, they seem to show a very large spread of gale force winds, i am leaning to this to end up as a strong hybrid system that will affect a large area far from the center. like ike and storms take on this far im not sold on a pure tropical system hitting the northern gulf coast this late with the shear in the gulf, and another system interphasing with it.
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1000. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:
Chances of Ida dissipating while over land has dropped to 35%, for good reasons



Terrain on the NE part of the Country is pretty much flat.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
I'd be willing to put money on a just W of N movement, just inland at this time.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
Morning weather i have a curious question are there any indications Ida would affect south florida long term ( even a great possibility) because climatologically wouldnt IDA do a hurricane wilma type track ??????


I included the possibility and cause that would make Ida go right of the NHC forecast track in my blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WxLogic:


There's starting to be a pretty good consensus now. I wonder if the W FL shield is going to break this time.


That shield is pretty much non existent this late in the season.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11212
Chances of Ida dissipating while over land has dropped to 35%, for good reasons

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Interesting forecast from the UKMET Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.0N 93.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.11.2009 19.0N 93.2W MODERATE
00UTC 07.11.2009 19.3N 93.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 19.4N 93.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.11.2009 19.7N 93.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2009 20.5N 93.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2009 21.3N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2009 MERGES WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11212
It's amazing how fast these storms are intensifying nowadays, sheesh.
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992. JRRP
another subtropical system ?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There's starting to be a pretty good consensus now. I wonder if the W FL shield is going to break this time.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting Weather456:
Blog Update

Hurricane Ida lashes Nicaragua

Forecast for Ida

Morning weather i have a curious question are there any indications Ida would affect south florida long term ( even a great possibility) because climatologically wouldnt IDA do a hurricane wilma type track ??????
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Anyone else see IDA heading more N along the coast or do I have too much blood in my coffee stream this morning?


Morning All.


Hehe... morning. That's my thinking... but I guess we'll see.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



There is the front.
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Anyone else see IDA heading more N along the coast or do I have too much blood in my coffee stream this morning?


Morning All.
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986. IKE
...
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Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11212
Blog Update

Hurricane Ida lashes Nicaragua

Forecast for Ida


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The JSL color Infared show the center and still right off the coast.
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Some thoughts from MLB NWS Discussion:

FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL OF IDA OR REMNANT TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEX. NHC 5 DAY POSITION OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL
WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WOULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO AREA
BY MIDWEEK AND FORECAST WOULD BE WETTER THAN IS CURRENTLY
INDICATED.

We're all definitely awaiting to see how Ida is going to look like structurally after it emerges into the NW Carib and the implications it will have in parts of the Gulf States.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
965. IKE

Interesting...those coordinates are inland.



Latest SHIPS Text indicates 10km inland.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11212
Interesting how bands are beginning to form all along the northern CR coastline. Looks like the surface envelope is expanding. If Ida skims more NNW to N then there is going to be plenty of moisture available to feed her.
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978. IKE
Quoting JFLORIDA:
That thing is impressive - esp because its so late!

I wonder how it will fare in the GOM.

BTW all - get any flu shots you can, I think it is going to be a bad year. (from my blog)


My kidney doctor advised me to get the swine flu shot. Their giving them free here next Thursday. I'll be in line.


It is impressive for so late in the season.
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Ida is movinf based on Ifared images between the NNW and Nw More towards the NNW i wonder what the implications are going to be based on the forecast track
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Tropical Storm Ida batters Nicaraguan island

FILADELFO ALEMAN - The Associated Press

MANAGUA, Nicaragua - Tropical Storm Ida uprooted trees, knocked down power lines and forced the evacuation of 300 people on Nicaragua's Corn Island after forming Wednesday and quickly gaining strength in the southwestern Caribbean.

The storm was threatening to become a hurricane before making landfall in Nicaragua early Thursday morning.

Heavy rains and winds already pounded the popular resort of Corn Island, knocking down trees, electrical lines and telephone poles. Much of the island had lost and phone service, said Lt. Col. Reinaldo Carrion, the civil defense chief in Bluefields, the city nearest to the island.

Some 300 people were evacuated from poorly constructed, mostly wooden homes, Carrion said. They spent the night in offices of the port authority, the navy and some hotels.

"Fixed telephone lines are out, and cell phone and radio communication is difficult, so we don't have a lot of information," he told The Associated Press.

Ton Bos, owner of the Paraiso Beach Hotel on Corn Island, said winds and rain were heavy, but he had seen worse.

"There is a lot of rain, a lot of wind and some trees are coming down, but it's not a catastrophe," Bos told AP by cellular phone. "I've been here four years and it's been worse than this."
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
972. amd
just did a google search of the NHC coordinates, and Hurricane Ida is just offshore by like less than 10 miles. Also, looks like it is turning due north.

Last night, it looked like Ida would head well inland and weaken dramatically over Nicaragua. Unless a more pronounced westward based movement happens quickly, it looks like Ida will either hug the coast, or be just inland along the coastal plain of Nicaragua and Honduras.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYSNOPSIS FEATURING HURICANE IDA NOVEMBER 05, 2009 ISSUED 7:30 a.m.


nice :) thnx!
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970. IKE
Are there any reporting stations near where she's making landfall? That update hourly?

Latest visible....sure looks inland to me.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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