Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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-4:45PM

*Continues to look strong, could be our next hurricane before making landfall.

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Quoting futuremet:


Which photo editing software did you use to do this?

Remarkable job!


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I Love it!


Thank you! Nice to have the blog active again (not nice, however, to have a cyclone threatening land, and maybe even the U.S.).

I used Google Earth for the main image (background), followed up by Powerpoint 2007 to make the graphics.

FYI - If Ida threatens the U.S., the graphics will have red/white stripes, sorta' like a "Storm Alert" regime.

I'll have more graphics in a bit (advisories, etc.)
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116. IKE
"IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.".......


Best case scenario...it dissipates.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting StormW:


Agreed.

Good to see you back. You haven't been on too much lately.

(Another good forecaster)


I have been here.
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I think they messed up that last vortex message. It should have had the 64.4mph on there but it took the 39.1mph from the next 10 minute block for some reason, while the other readings were from the prior 10min block.

But, definitely 65mph TS right now.
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Quoting StormW:


Hot Towers


Indeed, never a good sign. Saw those with Paloma.
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With the new vortex pass it seems Ida will follow her NHC forecast
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Possible hot towers in the NE quad.


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couldn't Ida veer back towards Jamaica?
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TS IDA Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Java Loop

TFP's available
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Quoting AllStar17:
More graphics to follow, only a brief update for now:

TROPICAL STORM IDA

5 pm Storm Track:
***New Graphics***
(please give feedback)
I Love it!
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Quoting AllStar17:
More graphics to follow, only a brief update for now:

TROPICAL STORM IDA

5 pm Storm Track:
***New Graphics***
(please give feedback)


Which photo editing software did you use to do this?

Remarkable job!
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21:45 UTC

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Eye still tightening.


Now down to 16NM
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Quoting jipmg:


but its already a 65mph tropical storm


No, it's only at 60 mph. right now, it might be around 65-70 mph. by 7 p.m.
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Quoting jipmg:


but its already a 65mph tropical storm


Uh no its not.
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Ida looks to be near hurricane strength. It probably will make it there before landfall on the Nicaraguan coast.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 22:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 21:44:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°02'N 82°43'W (12.0333N 82.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 302 miles (487 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 657m (2,156ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the S (170°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 258° at 40kts (From between the WSW and W at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the S (169°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 755m (2,477ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 769m (2,523ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:44:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the north quadrant at 21:48:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Probably a 65-70 mph TS.


but its already a 65mph tropical storm
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More graphics to follow, only a brief update for now:

TROPICAL STORM IDA

5 pm Storm Track:
***New Graphics***
(please give feedback)
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Quoting ElConando:


not atm no 65mph is likely little chance of 70mph but i'm 95% sure it won't be higher than 65mph by 7.


Highest surface one I see is 64.4 mph
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Some high cloud tops in the NE quad.

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Possibly an upgrade to 65-70 mph. on the next advisory.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Wow Caicos, how strong was Kate where you were?



Category one... we had "gusts" up to 100 mph

Only time in my life I have watched the needle on a barometer move without tapping the glass. (Watching by candlelight on my boat while the trailing edge of the eye passed over me). I was safe in a canal, 2 miles inland.
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Quoting jipmg:
So we may actually end up with a hurricane by 7?


not atm no 65mph is likely little chance of 70mph but i'm 95% sure it won't be higher than 65mph by 7.

edit: maybe i'm being a bit too conservative: i'll lower it to 85%.
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Quoting jipmg:
So we may actually end up with a hurricane by 7?


Probably a 65-70 mph TS.
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oh wow ,
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Quoting ElConando:


Still no vort message, well i'll look back after dinner.


Should be out pretty quick
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Quoting StormW:
I'm out for now.

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS /TD 11 / ISSUED 4:15 P.M. EST


Very good! thanks
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SFMR:

56 knots
(~ 64.4 mph)
-------------------------
10 second Flight level

75 knots
(~ 86.2 mph)
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So we may actually end up with a hurricane by 7?
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64.4 mph
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Higher winds.


Still no vort message, well i'll look back after dinner.
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winds close to 65mph now

finding flight level winds of over 70mph
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Higher winds.
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Quoting ElConando:


What does that indicate?


Formation of an eye.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Slight indentation in the clouds...



What does that indicate?
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Re: #68

Kate's eye went right over me here in Providenciales
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WTNT01 KNGU 042101
WARNING ATCN MIL 11L NAT 091104201056

2009110418 11L IDA 002 01 305 05 SATL 020
T000 118N 0823W 035 R034 035 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 124N 0832W 050 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 130N 0841W 040 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 137N 0846W 030
T048 145N 0850W 025
T072 160N 0855W 025
T096 180N 0860W 035
T120 205N 0865W 040
AMP
#0001
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM IDA (11L) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM IDA (11L) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 11.8N 82.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 82.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.4N 83.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.0N 84.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.7N 84.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.5N 85.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.0N 85.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.0N 86.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.5N 86.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 82.7W OR APPROX 200NM NW OF
PORTOBELO, PM. 12 FT SEAS: 45NM NE, 30NM SE, 30NM SW,
45NM NW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050301Z, 050901Z, 051501Z AND
052101Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1109110300 99N 808W 25
1109110306 100N 810W 25
1109110312 101N 811W 25
1109110318 103N 811W 25
1109110400 106N 810W 25
1109110406 110N 813W 30
1109110412 115N 819W 35
1109110418 118N 823W 50
1109110418 118N 823W 50

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Another Caymanian, haven't seen you on here before and you asked exactly what I was wondering.
this is the first time i have been. the t.s looks like it moving more north than west. but i don't know what im lookin at
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Slight indentation in the clouds...

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Maybe the rapid intensification wore off for now, still expect some slow strengthening.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.