Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Could that just be a low angle of the sun on a hot tower, instead of an eye?
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167. xcool
i seeing eyessss
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Eye:

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Quoting IKE:


May tease the USA and head back from where it came.

Similar to the 12Z ECMWF.


Like pull a Jeanne (1980)...



Speaking of 1980, odd year. 4 GoM TCs and Florida was untouched. And Allen was the last GoM cat 5 before Katrina 15 years later.



And all of our friends are there, Jeanne, Charley, Francis, Ivan...
And it looks like Ivan pulled a crazy Ivan, too!
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It's going to get very fun in here if this one ends up in the GOM with any structure at all...we'll see whatever new incarnation that JFV/WS has come up with for certain...LOL

On the other hand,. we won't be seeing the "the season's over" crowd at all...
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163. IKE
Quoting NRAamy:
on the other hand, it will likely get eaten up over land and turn into...nothing

that would upset a lot of people on here....


Sadly...that is true.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I have looked at my models and data and it is highly likely that this system will dissipate over the rugged Nicaraguan mountains.


Becoming less likely as the system gets stronger.
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Current GOM IR Loop

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160. IKE
So much for the season being over and so much for it not having a chance to be a hurricane.

No wonder there were crows flying around in my yard today.

Quoting NRAamy:
May tease the USA and head back from where it came.

like I said....it could back to Jamaica! For once I am on it!

:)


Yup...you're on it.
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As of 5:15PM EST a pinhole eye is now visible on visible satellite:



*In case the image can not be seen here is the link: Link
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on the other hand, it will likely get eaten up over land and turn into...nothing

that would upset a lot of people on here....
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Another **SPECIAL Graphics Update*** with NEW Graphics made by me today

--TROPICAL STORM IDA: 5:30 pm--




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TS IDA,early track Guidance

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Quoting NRAamy:
May tease the USA and head back from where it came.

like I said....it could back to Jamaica! For once I am on it!

:)


You may be right, but before then the HWRF and the GFDL have it splitting the difference between the west end of Cuba and the Yucatan...on the other hand, it will likely get eaten up over land and turn into...nothing
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 042230
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
530 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
...IDA A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 530 PM EST...2230 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING
IDA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.

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Quoting Patrap:
Looks like one that may drive some to..er,curtains here.
nothing better then a nice end of the season nailbiter helps keep one on there toes
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Hurricane watches up in Nicaragua. Possible intensification before landfall. Then It looks like it's anyone's guess.
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Ida's up to 65 mph, with a Hurricane Watch for the Nicaragua coast.
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148. jipmg
65MPH winds, hurricane watch issued
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May tease the USA and head back from where it came.

like I said....it could back to Jamaica! For once I am on it!

:)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


As I thought, a wobble.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah drawing off sea surface now as air temps fall below sea temps look for an enhancing cycle to commence till land interaction occurs in 24 hrs
correct
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143. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Looks like one that may drive some to..er,curtains here.


LOL.
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Looks like one that may drive some to..er,curtains here.
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The UNISYS 10-Day GFSx is a lil Kinky as well.
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140. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
18Z GFS,

Gets shunted South in Last 2 frames


May tease the USA and head back from where it came.

Similar to the 12Z ECMWF.
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COMPLETE TROPICAL STORM IDA 4 pm Advisory
***New GRAPHICS UPDATE***


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18Z GFS,

Gets shunted South in Last 2 frames
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Latest Vortex Message on TS IDA:

URNT12 KNHC 042201
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/21:44:50Z
B. 12 deg 02 min N
082 deg 43 min W
C. 925 mb 657 m
D. 34 kt
E. 170 deg 14 nm
F. 258 deg 40 kt
G. 169 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 21 C / 755 m
J. 24 C / 769 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16

N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:44:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 21:48:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And a shrinking eye is a strenthening storm. Do I have to brink up Gilbert or Wilma again? Holy Cow! Look a pinhole eye!
yeah drawing off sea surface now as air temps fall below sea temps look for an enhancing cycle to commence till land interaction occurs in 24 hrs
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135. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

hope the next gfs run changes then hope so


It's a long way off....things will probably change.

GFS shows a trough in the east, which could turn it toward peninsula Florida.
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Recent image shows some -80C cloudtops around the developing eye and eyewall. That and with the rapidly shrinking eye, its possible that RI might be about to occur. Category 1 Hurricane possible at landfall.
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Quoting btwntx08:
worst case is to come over water and strengthen again
Sadly that is the "Highest percentage of prossibility" scenario.
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Quoting IKE:
"IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.".......


Best case scenario...it dissipates.

yeah if not then


dear lord,
take this evil vision
from my sight
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Recon is going home
Quoting lawgrad:
Leaving for Playa del Carmen on the Yucatan Penisula Saturday-Tues. If Ida dissipates over land will it impact the Yucatan much? Should I cancel trip??? Help please!


Check the Company Site or call your Agent maybe,
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
the most recent vortex message caught my eye, eye still shrinking quite rapidly.

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
And a shrinking eye is a strenthening storm. Do I have to bring up Gilbert or Wilma again? Holy Cow! Look a pinhole eye!
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127. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
worst case is to come over water and strengthen again


Which is what the 18Z GFS is indicating....then heading north toward the Florida panhandle.
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Leaving for Playa del Carmen on the Yucatan Penisula Saturday-Tues. If Ida dissipates over land will it impact the Yucatan much? Should I cancel trip??? Help please!
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Ida has found her groove in that spot seems.


Maybe we will get a schooling next 24,

Seems to always be one a year to do that.

Thought Claudette was it,maybe not so fast with that opine now. ..
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Very nice outflow:

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Quoting Patrap:



Seems to be 4 pairs of "hot towers".
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BAMM Deep looks like a favored solution thru 48-60 hours.
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the most recent vortex message caught my eye, eye still shrinking quite rapidly.

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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