Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Last good Viz Still came in at 22:45.



One can see Ida's core well rounded in this one,but very small.
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Quoting Patrap:
Okay,cuz I never seen a Circle in a Hurricane Warning Flag before,..

Dey usually be Square.



Apparently central American countries use the two circles to indicate hurricane warnings.
U.S. Of course uses the boxes.
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did i say i wanted more rain here on roatan??? geeez. not all in one weekend. will be stopping in here often to read what you experts have to say.
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TS IDA from 22:15 UTC

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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who said "NO" on Rapid Intensification, wouldn't be surprise when I come back from class that this thing is a Huricane!
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Quoting jdcweatherky:
this is the first time i have been. the t.s looks like it moving more north than west. but i don't know what im lookin at
Keep reading and you will get all the information you need from some very intelligent people on here. Just read and you will learn who to put stock in and who to take with a grain of salt. Information on here more frequent than NHC too. BTW, where in Cayman are you ?
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Dr. Lyons was on this morning at 9:00am est. Talking about futher development of what is now Ida.
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atmoaggie- I never trust ship obs. They got lots more to worry about than QC on those instruments that measure water temp.
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Ida is taking her precious time...slooooowly moooooving.
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Quoting P451:
Recon certainly did their job today.



A lot of 50kt+ readings as they exited due north out of the center of the system.


That is a 4.5 hour flight back and they started their day at 6:15 CST...long day for them.
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Expect Ida to resume strengthening pretty quickly again soon....strengthening convection on the northern eyewall should soon start to wrap around center.
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Quoting AllStar17:



Not thrilled with TWC's coverage. To begin, heck, they stop tropical updates on 10/31, and do not continue them until 11/30, they stop a month early. And voila, we now have a storm, and no expert, no tropical updates, go figure.

I agree with you re TWC...but then, I'm still watching it, aren't I? BTW, they brought the Tropical Update video bumper back at :50...so hope they'll bring Lyons back into the studio soonest.
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Okay,cuz I never seen a Circle in a Hurricane Warning Flag before,..

Dey usually be Square.

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WHAT!?!?!

How the heck did a ship measure 68 degree F water in the middle of the Caribbean a couple of hours ago?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=12.0N&lon1=82.7W&uom=E&dist=350&ot=A&time=-3

That is here: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=9.90 N, 77.80 W&sll=37.0625,-95.677068& sspn=47.751524,79.013672&ie=UTF8&ll=14.944785,-74.937744&spn=14.631727,19.753418&z=6

Nose, Joway.

I hope someone is very careful with the ship ob QC before they try using some sort of average value to make large conclusions about anything at all...
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Lots of warm water ahead of Ida in fact because of its slow movement and TCHP it could get pretty strong for a Nov. system. Lets wait, watch, and see how everything plays out.
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Hey wats up everyone? It seems the blog is heating up.
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actually they are belize flags looked fitting for the region system is located
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Providencia Columbia, webcam showing sunset:


NOPE THIS CAM IS NOT on Providencia contrary to tag

http://www.anotetodo.com/webcam/index.html

checking more... not sure this cam is labeled correctly
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
HURRICANE WARNING





Are those Canadian Hurricane Warning FLags?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

No Dr. Lyons yet. It was Met. Nick Walker, going along with NHC. Did say they'll be keeping an eye on it.
The funny part was that at 5:50 EST, I was watching for you, and it was a Morgan Freeman voiceover, over Penguins. I thought HUH?, pfft, it was the promo for movie March of the Penguins. Go figure.



Not thrilled with TWC's coverage. To begin, heck, they stop tropical updates on 10/31, and do not continue them until 11/30, they stop a month early. And voila, we now have a storm, and no expert, no tropical updates, go figure.
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How many miles is Ida from shore?
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Okay, play nice folks...BBL
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Nicaragua Wu-reporting Cities
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Quoting AllStar17:
I assume Dr. Lyons is not doing tropical updates yet for Ida (it is :49 now, and I'd be interested to hear his opinion, but I do not think I will be able to.)

No Dr. Lyons yet. It was Met. Nick Walker, going along with NHC. Did say they'll be keeping an eye on it.
The funny part was that at 5:50 EST, I was watching for you, and it was a Morgan Freeman voiceover, over Penguins. I thought HUH?, pfft, it was the promo for movie March of the Penguins. Go figure.
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Quoting Patrap:
Ida has a very small Wind Field,..overall.


Knew that, but expected more than "calm" west of her on the coast!
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Ida has a very small Wind Field,..overall.

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HURRICANE WARNING



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Another **SPECIAL Graphics Update*** with NEW Graphics made by me today
(feedback appreciated)

They are too pretty. Make them less nice so everyone else doesn't look bad. Work on it.
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could Ida get sucked into the Bermuda Triangle? they had a show about that on the History Channel this AM.....
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TS IDA Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
22:15 UTC

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Nuthin, I mean nuthin showing on the surface obs.
(At least nearest to Ida)

(Best viewed full size, click!)
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Another **SPECIAL Graphics Update*** with NEW Graphics made by me today
(feedback appreciated)
--TROPICAL STORM IDA: 5:30 pm--




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TS IDA Floater - RGB Color Infrared Java Loop
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I assume Dr. Lyons is not doing tropical updates yet for Ida (it is :49 now, and I'd be interested to hear his opinion, but I do not think I will be able to.)
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 042230
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
530 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
...IDA A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 530 PM EST...2230 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING
IDA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

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176. jipmg
Eye in the convection likely, remember its only 16 miles
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Quoting Drakoen:
Eye:

soon
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Quoting xcool:
wakeInMaryland huh

Just kidding you. More than one eye, joke :)
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22:15 UTC

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172. xcool
wakeInMaryland huh
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Quoting tornadofan:
Could that just be a low angle of the sun on a hot tower, instead of an eye?


More likely that it is an eye.
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Quoting xcool:
i seeing eyessss

Plural? Don't tease me! :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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