Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29┬░C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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18Z HWRF coming out on the NCEP site.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10961
I doubt Ida will go onshore Nicaragua, I'm starting to see a more NNW/N drift.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7726


Ida is no Monster,,..and Has a very tiny wind field as of now.

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Quoting portcharlotte:


456 We discussed this morning the deeper system will go north. We have the deep system and it still has a strong west component in movement. Will IDA turn more north than the NGC track and surprise us?


Intensity will be affected by land which would justify the northwestward motion...at the end of the forecast cycle the storm begins to restrengthen as a more northerly component takes over.

However, I did not anticipated the system moving so far northwest, which is why I am keeping the NNW motion open.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I think Ida is possibly a hurricane already.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7726
18Z HWRF much more tame

HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -87.90 LAT: 21.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -88.70 LAT: 22.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -88.90 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -89.10 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -88.80 LAT: 25.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10961
Man looking at this Ida makes me feel a little queezy, this things sames to be RI imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7726
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z GFDL from the NCEP site.


With such a monster... it should have no problem modifying upper level "blocks" and allow it to follow the upper level flow. I guess we'll see how things play out.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4955
The consensus in my mind is a good run ,and I concur with the BAMM Deep solution out thru 72
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z GFDL from the NCEP site.


Keeps it out over water - very powerful.
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


apparently


456 We discussed this morning the deeper system will go north. We have the deep system and it still has a strong west component in movement. Will IDA turn more north than the NGC track and surprise us?
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18Z GFDL from the NCEP site.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10961
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


18Z GFDL has a major cane. Graphics should show up soon on the FSU Site

HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -82.39 LAT: 18.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.58
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.52 LAT: 18.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.91
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -82.68 LAT: 19.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):127.20
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -83.12 LAT: 20.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):121.86
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.63 LAT: 21.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.80
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.01 LAT: 21.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.93


ohok...when I looked at the image I posted it liked like 12Z 4 November
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


18Z GFDL has a major cane. Graphics should show up soon on the FSU Site

HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -82.39 LAT: 18.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.58
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.52 LAT: 18.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.91
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -82.68 LAT: 19.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):127.20
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -83.12 LAT: 20.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):121.86
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.63 LAT: 21.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.80
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.01 LAT: 21.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.93


Interesting...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4955
Quoting Seastep:
18Z GFS

That thing is doing a 180... heck almost a 360
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Corn Island, Nicaragua wu site failed Updated: 1 hr 29 min 28 sec ago

Closet wu-station to the CoC,Approx,30 miles west.
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245. Seastep 3:27 PM PST on November 04, 2009
tsk tsk Amy. ;)


well, doesn't it!?

;)

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247. IKE
Mobile,AL...

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH VETERANS DAY]...REMAINING DRY ON
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO EASE OFF TO THE EAST AND
FLOW OVER THE AREA REMAINS MOSTLY EASTERLY. BY SUNDAY THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
UP OVER AN INCH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
NORTH FROM THE LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTING A QUICKER RETURN OF WARM MOIST AIR
OVER-RUNNING COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. GFS AND EURO ARE
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECAST
PACKAGES.


New Orleans....

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...POPS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO
HELP KEEP TROPICAL STORM IDA AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA EVEN IF IT
DOES ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING
TROPICAL STORM IDA.
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Quoting jipmg:


The red line is the GFDL forecast track?


apparently
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
tsk tsk Amy. ;)
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Quoting Weather456:
Wind Field



GFDL wind speed forecast - category 1



18Z GFDL has a major cane. Graphics should show up soon on the FSU Site

HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -82.39 LAT: 18.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.58
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.52 LAT: 18.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.91
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -82.68 LAT: 19.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):127.20
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -83.12 LAT: 20.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):121.86
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.63 LAT: 21.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.80
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.01 LAT: 21.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.93
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10961
Storm Surge is not normally a problem in the NW Caribbean the bathymetry is unlike the GOM - the region is very deep

Surge however do affect the marsh lands sitting just offshore Honduras/Nicaragua

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
240. Bonz
LOL. What the heck? A slow season and it's November and NOW something wants to form?
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Quoting jipmg:


The red line is the GFDL forecast track?


Pretty much. But, that's the 12Z. The 18Z will have much better input to go on.
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weather456 - Do you make that GFDL windfield pic?
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235. jipmg
Quoting Weather456:
Wind Field



GFDL wind speed forecast - category 1



The red line is the GFDL forecast track?
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Wind Field



GFDL wind speed forecast - category 1

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
400 PM EST ...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
ABOUT 75 MILES...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

Fifty miles northeast of the
Atlantic Coast city of Bluefields,
Nicaragua lies one of the
Caribbean's forgotten tropical
paradises; The Corn Islands.

The two Corn Islands, Big Corn
Island and Little Corn Island


The picture on this page looks realistic, but it doesn't say if it was today

http://www.bigcornisland.com/weather.html
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232. jipmg
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


LOL???


that has to be a VERY VERY strong high..
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seastep:
18Z GFS


LOL???
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


ok just viewed the hot towers youtube (which was having issues). so by the images you just posted you can see them right? 3?


Yes,..3 Boomers look "Hot" for sure,..They are Tall and in the Active Quad too
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18Z GFS
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Quoting Patrap:
Boomers in the active Quad for sure,in that Shot.
No Radar though to see the cloud Heights,

But the 22:45 UTC Dvorak Image is Impressive still.



Ida certinally is certinally not in the proffession of many of her cousins this year (strippers). Shes is a hard working woman, unfortunately there will be glass ceiling for her.
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Post 189 it looks like there were a few 60 kt vectors as well. I have a question, since the land Ida's about to cross is relatively flat does that mean the stronger it gets before landfall the better the chance it survives? Or does strength not really matter? TIA
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Quoting Patrap:
Last good Viz Still came in at 22:45.



One can see Ida's core well rounded in this one,but very small.


ok just viewed the hot towers youtube (which was having issues). so by the images you just posted you can see them right? 3?
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224. jipmg
This thing is taking off, RAPID INTENSIFICATION may be starting, keep an eye on it
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Boomers in the active Quad for sure,in that Shot.
No Radar though to see the cloud Heights,

But the 22:45 UTC Dvorak Image is Impressive still.

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Quoting P451:


They had to have flown nearly 3,000 miles combined today.




Close enough, but they came out of Biloxi (Keesler). (May be that I just cannot see it on your plot)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.